While many in the global media have been projecting Syria as the country, the US forces could move in next for 'regime change', the tensions that are far more serious had already developed between Washington and Tehran over the future of Iraq. The blunt-speaking US' Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was the first who brought this building up of tension into the open during the initial heat of the war on Iraq. Talking to the press in late March he had warned Iran to refrain from launching Al-Badr militants into Iraq. Rumsfeld's warning ostensibly grew out of the US' frustration in the absence of any visible welcome for its forces in the southern cities of Iraq having overwhelming Shia majority. Rather a stiff resistance put up in these areas belied the claims of the spin-doctors of the allied forces that their entry would be heartily welcomed by the Shias comprising the dominant majority in southern Iraq.

Since the Turkish takeover of these areas in 1638 the Shias have always been discriminated against. The British continued to patronise the Sunni elite as collaborators after getting their mandate over Iraq in 1918. Things did not change even after Iraq's independence. After consolidating its control of Iraq by early 1970s the secular Baath Party was rather more systematic in the repression of Shias. Yet, instead of an anticipated 'welcome' of the allied forces by 'disgruntled' Shia what had been witnessed was a spirited resistance by the citizenry that, of course, included Shias when the allied troops reached Basra. Hundreds of Irani dissidents, living in camps allotted to intensely trained urban guerillas of Mujahideen-e-Khalq also joined. Historically, the Shias always closed ranks with other forces fighting the aliens -- a fact totally ignored by the Anglo-American invaders.

For stirring the 'welcoming feelings' among the Shia majority of Basra and adjacent areas the British intelligence also launched some pro-west activists who had been living abroad and owed their allegiance to late Ayatollah Al-Qasim Khoi -- a Shia religious scholar. His son, Ali Majid had organised the expatriate Shias under the banner of Al-Khoi Foundation. Despite very desperate attempts Khoi-loyalists failed to spark a 'popular welcome' of the allied forces, for the majority Shias were suspicious of the 'independent thinking' of Ali Majid Khoi who was eventually murdered by an anti-American mob in Najaf on April 10.

In the meantime, the Al-Badr whom Rumsfeld mentioned in his accusation had been an armed group of Iran-based Shia dissidents from Iraq who sought guidance from Ayatollah Baqir Hakim and his Supreme Council of Islami Revolution (SCIRI). The US took time to understand that Baqir Hakim and his patrons in Tehran were not for sustaining Saddam and his regime in power. Maintaining studied inactivity during the heat of the war they rather preferred waiting for the demise of their immediate enemy --Êthe Baathist regime. It was only to fill the political vacuum that ensued in the wake of Saddam's fall that Baqir Hakim loyalists and cadres began surfacing in the cities of southern Iraq. Many had indeed slipped in there through the long and porous border with Iran. Syed Ayatollah Abdul Aziz Hakim, a brother of Baquir Hakim suddenly surfaced in Al-Kut which was already taken over by SCIRI loyalists.

Even if the US troops preferred to ignore it what really set the alarms amongst the US generals were the huge groups of ordinary folks walking to the holy city of Karbala from southern Iraq. They were essentially marching to the city to observe 'Arbaeen', the 40th day of the martyrdom of Imam Husain. An overwhelming majority of the pilgrims were not interested to send any political message through their long march and the eventual gathering at Karbala. However, some of their political leaders decided to show the depth of their grassroots support. Ayatollah Baqir Hakim also called on his followers 'to oppose a US-led interim administration'. But the 'Arbaeen' gathering at Karbala remained more of a religious congregation yet, Iran was publicly accused of "pouring thousand of Al-Badr troops into Iraq in advance of the pilgrimage and in breach of its understandings to Washington. Through the 'deep throats', some western journalists also wrote stories "elaborating" details of alleged "penetration". A section of Israeli media went a step further to remind the world that the Badr brigades "are in fact an undercover elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They are made of foreign elements, mostly Iraqi and Afghan Shiites."

Such stories insisted that the Badr Brigade's thrust into Iraq was "in effect an Iranian military movement timed to coincide with Karbala celebration and spearhead the rise of local Shia militias in Iraq's heartland region against the American military presence". In addition to moving Badr Brigade's units into Iraq's Shia centres, the Iranians were also accused of pumping thousands of trained and well-armed guerilla fighters through Basra and Al-Amara into Najaf and Karbala regions to mingle with the pilgrims and manipulate the mood of the crowds from within. Allegations are also leveled that the Iranians are delivering weapons, explosives and cash to pro-Iranian Iraqi leaders with a view to fighting pro-American and even moderate elements of Shia community.

After accusing Baqir Hakim for 'inciting and managing' the murder of Ali Majid Khoi, the unnamed sources of some western journalists also projected the real or perceived activities of his brother, Abdul Aziz, very alarmingly. On this count, apart from coalition forces going on a high alert Washington also forwarded a stern warning to Iran through the spokesperson of the White House. Iran strongly rejected the US allegations that Tehran was interfering in Iraq and categorically stated that it was not seeking to promote the political role of fellow Shias in its western neighbourhood. Baqir Hakim also kept asserting that his group did not want to establish an 'Iran-styled Islamic Republic in Iraq', but sincerely wanted to work towards a "national democratic government elected by the Iraqis".

Notwithstanding Iranian clarifications the American accusations are indeed serious and have the potentials of snowballing into a major crisis -- given the unsavoury background of Tehran inflicting a deep scar on American psyche in the wake of its Islamic revolution almost a quarter of a century back. It was Iran, a non-Arab Middle East country that gave a bloody nose to the Americans who totally failed to bend a revolutionary Iran to their dictate -- an ignominy they can never forget. Whether or not that would constitute a factor for a possible pre-emption, many more can be created in an era when the wishes of the mightiest is the rule of the game.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.