Two of them cast their shadow on the New Year. One is Kashmir and the other, the strengthening of the BJP. In fact, one affects the other. The two may well upset the applecart and bring to naught any plans for understanding between India and Pakistan.

Take Kashmir first. It has got unnecessarily linked with the SAARC summit which taboos discussion on bilateral issues. The Pakistan establishment does not seem to realise that any solution to Kashmir can be posterior to a favourable climate, not prior to it.

Many Pakistanis have told me that once India accepts Kashmir a disputed territory, the talks can go on for years. No government at New Delhi can do so because the state of Jammu and Kashmir has been spelled out as the territory of India in its constitution. But Pakistan's insistence on this point is futile. When New Delhi has held a series of meetings on Kashmir, it has indirectly conceded that this part of the country is under discussion. Even after winning the Bangladesh war, Indira Gandhi agreed with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in June 1972 at Shimla that the negotiations between the two countries would take place subsequently for "a final settlement of Jammu and Kashmir."

Taking advantage of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's presence, Islamabad has built up a case to initiate talks on Kashmir. There is nothing wrong in it. But this has downgraded the SAARC which may one day provide an answer to Kashmir. The SAARC delineates the contours of the South Asian Union. The organisation should be strengthened, not diluted. The first step should be the constitution of SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Agreement) and SAPTA (South Asian Preferential Agreement). Vajpayee has offered economic cooperation to normalise the situation. This will help trade and travel that are the sinews of any rapprochement.

The important point to worry about is the tone of hostility in the official media. Doordarshan, with a 24-hour news channel, the Pakistan TV and the radio networks of the two countries continue to harp on differences despite the various steps taken towards normalcy. They disseminate news and views in such a way that people are aroused on both sides. Apparently, the two governments give them directions every day because theirs is a daily reaction to the occurrences. The language used and the programmes devised cannot be off their own bat. Why can't the propaganda of hate be stopped forthwith?

India-Pakistan relations have survived the onslaught of official media or of those who are determined to sabotage any effort towards normalcy. The last 56 years have not been easy, with the three wars and the Kargil misadventure thrown in. What evokes confidence in both the countries is the recognisable desire of peoples to live in peace. That sentiment is so deep and wide that it cannot be brushed aside anymore. I recall that when we lit candles at Wagah border a decade ago on the night of August 14-15, we were only a dozen-odd people. Last August there were two lakh on the Indian side and nearly half a lakh on the Pakistan side, raising slogans of Hind-Pak dosti (India-Pakistan friendship).

I have no doubt that the high walls that fear and distrust have raised on the borders will crumble and the peoples of the subcontinent, without giving up their separate identities, will one day work together for the common good. This might usher in an era fruitful beyond their dreams. This is the faith I have cherished ever since I left my hometown, Sialkot, in Pakistan in September 1947. And this is the straw I have clung to in the sea of hatred and hostility that has engulfed India and Pakistan for long.

The rising graph of the BJP is, indeed, disturbing. It raises question about India's ethos of secularism. What the US State Department has said in its latest report is largely true: "There is a gradual but continual institutionalisation of Hindutva in India," marked by "politicised inculcation of Hindu religious and cultural norms to the exclusion of other religious norms." The annual report on what is a treatise of international religious freedom says: "Hindutva often synonymous with cultural nationalism, excludes other religious beliefs and fosters religious intolerance."

That the BJP is the ruling party makes things worse. I was prepared to believe that the BJP, after winning elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan, would settle down and plug the line of development and governance to soften the Hindutva propaganda, as it did during the polls. But I find the RSS guiding the three governments and the chief ministers saying it proudly. The new development is a direct induction of the RSS pracharaks (preachers) in the cabinets in all the three states. They are going to play a key role in the next general election.

What it denotes is that the RSS is confident that its ideology has come to be accepted. They do not hide behind the cultural discourse any more. They openly preach Hindutva and have made it clear that this will be their plank for the Lok Sabha election. They do not want to admit that the BJP is their political limb because Vajpayee still pulls many liberals towards him on the belief that he is not "as bad as L K Advani." The strengthening of the BJP has also encouraged another member of the Sangh parivar. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) has said that it will "reconvert" those Hindus who had "become Christians." It has said that its job will be easier because they have their own governments in Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi has become so blatant in his extremist behaviour that he wants to take on even the Supreme Court which has criticised the state for the manner in which the riot cases have been pursued. His government has raised the fears of communal disturbances returning to the state if the Supreme Court transfers out the trial of any of the Gujarat riot cases. He does not want to change his communal outlook. Nor does he want the victims to get justice. There is still an economic boycott of Muslims.

With secular forces in disarray and Congress Party president Sonia Gandhi not making the grade, the return of another NDA, headed by the BJP, cannot be ruled out. This may spell disaster to all liberal values in India. Saffronisation may come to acquire a deep coat of Hindutva.

Ministers like Murli Manohar Joshi have already polluted the fields of education, information, culture and even medicine. Another term of the BJP may encourage them to make wholesale changes in history, heritage and even the legal system. Political system is increasingly becoming a hostage to fanatics and extremists. India's ethos of pluralism is in danger. One silver lining, however, is the alliance of non-BJP forces. Sonia Gandhi's statement that the Congress wants a joint front and that it will leave the question of prime ministership to it is a hopeful development. This also takes the wind out of the BJP's sails that casting vote in favour of the Congress would mean bringing in the Italian-born Sonia Gandhi as the country's prime minister.

Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.