The US along with her loyal ally Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain have faced superhuman odds in Iraq for more than a year and half. When attacking Iraq nearly two years ago, the two leaders thought that it would be a cakewalk. The events were to prove how wrong they were. The Iraqis with the help of unseen allies put up a very creditable resistance and it continues to this day. President Bush went to war along with Blair when the whole world criticised their action bitterly. The war in Iraq was the most important issue in the Presidential elections last November. President Bush faced the challenge of the Democrat contender and won.

There was big question mark about the elections. Whereas President went ahead virtually alone and faced the challenge of daily murders of Al Zarkawi and assorted organisations, who continued their daily campaign of bombing and assassination. Indeed the opponents of the elections declared a virtual Jehad against it. On election day as many as nine suicide bombers killed more than 20 including some Americans.

All this and more have failed to deter the Iraqis from going to the 5,500 polling stations countrywide. From unofficial statistics we learn that nearly 60 percent of Iraqis have voted across the country. President Bush has expressed satisfaction at the result and has described it 'a great day for Democracy'. He has also thanked the European Union (EU) and the UN for their help. With the election victory firmly in the bag President Bush has taken the first step to mend fences with friends and allies with whom relations have been frosty.

Whereas the high participation of Iraqis in the elections is the real surprise, the result countrywide gives a divided verdict and this was to be expected. Iraq is divided roughly into predominantly Shia south who have nearly 60 percent of the total population, the Kurds in the north with a population of 15 to 20 percent and the rest Snnis with 15 to 20 percent. It would be wise not to assume that the 14.2 million Iraqis live in water tight compartments in those regions for indeed they live amongst each other. For instance capital Baghdad has a very mixed population. It has been reported that in the south the voters turned out in large numbers -- with anything upto 80 percent and the number of women voters was remarkably high. Same was the picture in Kurdish north. It was in the Sunni majority centre of the country that the voter turn out appeared to be low. The reason is that for a year and half that area has borne the brunt of the murderous conflict and they were fearful of attacks in the polling booths. In the south and the north what was repeatedly told was that they were voting for the first time since Saddam olved

It is worth taking note of some of the prominent personalities that have emerged through Al-Sistani. It is when he gave the blessing for the election that the process started in right earnest. The second is Iyad Allawi, the Prime Minister of the Provisional Government installed by the US. He is Shia and is a leading a faction of Shias. The third is Gazi Al Awar, President of the Provisional Government and he is a Sunni. The fourth is Adnan Pachachi, an internationally known personality, who leads an Assembly of Independent Democrats. Then there are two well known Kurdish leaders, Jalal Talabani and Masud Barzani, who have joined hands to present a common slate. There is Ahmad Chalabi, who is a Shia banker and secular minded politician and at one time enjoyed the blessings of the Americans.

Quo Vadis? There is a consensus emerging that power will have to be shared by the three regions. Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq for several decades with an iron hand keeping the Shias and the Kurds from the seat of power. It is evident that in the new situation the Shias can legitimately claim a larger slice of the cake. The Kurds, who have found favour with the Americans and in fact invited them to Iraq, will want something better than autonomy. The Sunnis, who have been in the driver's seat for long cannot be denied their slice of the cake. In other words the power game may have already begun. For the Americans, who hold power now, they would be interested in an orderly 'exit strategy'. Since they are an impatient people they may not want to get too involved in the musical chair of Iraq politics.

According to the provisional document drawn up by the Americans, the National Assembly composed of 270 members, will elect one President and two Deputy Presidents. The President will name a Prime Minister, who will select his Cabinet. The main task of the Assembly will be to prepare a Constitution which will be voted by the Assembly by the middle of August. The entire process is due to be completed by the end of the year.

This time table looks pretty neat on paper. Yet it is certain that there is bound to be so much horse trading that the danger of the process derailing is real. The Shias will no doubt feel the pull from across the border -- Iran. The Kurds have long been clamouring for an independent state and their ambitions will have to be kept in check. There are more Kurds in Turkey than in northern Iraq. Iran and Syria have sizeable Kurdish population. None of these three states view favourably the emergence of a Kurdish state.

With what seems like free elections underwritten by American bayonets, Iraq has launched into a new adventurous journey called democracy. If the experiment succeeds it will bring a great novelty in the Middle East. For democratically elected regimes are unknown in the region. We all have to keep our fingers crossed to see what comes next.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.