Bottom Line
Does national interest of India coincide with that of the US?
Harun ur Rashid
AT the recent G-8 meeting in St Peterburg, President Bush warmly received India's Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh. The way the President has welcomed him to the meeting makes it clear to observers that the US and India are on the same path and destiny. Furthermore, the Mumbai bombing has consolidated their relationship because they think they are victims of senseless terrorism. Observers believe the US and India are set for a mature partnership. Not that they are natural allies in any mystic or real sense, but because strategic interests coincide, reinforced by oil diplomacy, the war on terrorism and the presence of more than a million Indians in the US. Bill Clinton's "facilitation" over Kargil indicated a new realism that confirmed Lord Palmerston's dictum that nations have permanent interests and not friends. On the India's side India fully realizes that it cannot achieve its due role in the region and globally without American participation. Only American power can restrain Pakistan's adventurism and contain China increasing influence in the region. The former Prime Minister of India, Inder Kumar Gujral, put it that normal relations with America are regarded as a momentous breakthrough. India has been able to come out of the straightjacket of the Cold War and has been taking a long-term view of its national interests. It was the former Prime Minister Narasimha Rao in tandem with Manmohan Singh in 1991 who had launched economic reforms that provided impeccable cover for closer political and military ties. Economic reforms have a two-fold impact: First, it can provide India to pursue an ambitious foreign policy and secondly, it makes engagement attractive to US businessmen who powerfully shape foreign policy. Times have changed so much that Manmohan's ministers are eager for the courtesies shown to them in Washington. The senior members of the Bush administration spend so much time with their counter-parts from India that was not seen earlier. India seems to have abandoned its avowed policy of non-alignment to placate American wishes, such as vote against Iran on nuclear programme at the IAEA Governing Body meeting in Vienna. India's military nuclear programme was based on the belief only when the button is in its own hands and not someone else's finger on the button. The Vajpayee government accelerated and resumed vigorously the nuclear military programme and conducted nuclear tests in 1998. One of the Vajpayee's Ministers, Ram Jethmalani, who wrote to Vajpayee before President Clinton's visit in 2000 to suggest a mutual defence treaty. Substantial advantages, he argued, would flow to India if it was a part of what he called the Washington-London-Jerusalem-Tokyo axis. Unprecedented in American politics, India was able to conclude a nuclear deal with America for nuclear fuel and technology that would provide an edge over China and Pakistan in the area. India's leaders have been able to impress the Bush administration that Indian democracy and tolerance could have a moderating influence on the Muslim World. On the American side Oil is their civilization as James Baker III, former Secretary of State said. Its domestic sources produce only 2% per cent of the oil and 3% per cent of the gas that America devours. It must import oil for its economic and military power. Saudi Arabia accounts for its 25% per cent of American requirement. It is no wonder that it is haunted by the nightmare of the volatile Middle East oil supplies. Iraq and the looming confrontation between the US and Iran on nuclear programme add to its concern. The US must look out for other areas for oil. Africa has become one of the regions for oil besides the Central Asia. America has always protected its oil interests. In 1953, the CIA helped Britain to overthrow the Mosaddeq regime that nationalized British Petroleum in 1951. In 1969, Henry Kissinger, the Secretary of State tried to activate the sinister 40 Committee, the US inter-agency for secret operations, against Libya's Gaddafi who nationalized oil industry An American analyst said : "Who controls the Rimland rules Eurasia and who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world." India, Pakistan and Afghanistan constitute the Rimland and the "Great Game" in the region, in the eyes of Kipling, is now for a bigger prize, the reserves of oil in the Caspian Sea. The hydro-carbon reserves in the Caspian Sea are larger than the combined reserves of Alaska's Northern Slope and the North Sea. The US Heritage Foundation estimates reserves of 25 billion barrels in the Caspian basin alone. According to Unocal's Vice President, it is `estimated that the Central Asia has over 236 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves and over 200 billion barrels of crude oil. The Caspian Sea oil can be piped through the Rimland to the Arabian Sea. The US has been successful in getting oil from the Caspian Sea bypassing Russia and Iran through Azerbaijan, Georgia to Turkish port of Ceyhan in the Mediterranean Sea. There is another strategic reason for the superpower to be friendly with India As Japan and Europe grow weaker and China stronger, the Bush administration has seen India as a counterweight to China. The US needs to contain China ,its strategic competitor, in the Asia Pacific region and there is no country other than India that can do it. America also sees a great market in India. In a speech prior to his visit to India this year, The US President said : " India's middle class is now estimated at 300 million people. Think about that. It is greater than the entire population of the United States. India's middle class is buying air-conditioners, kitchen appliances, and washing machines, and a lot of them from American companies such as GE and Whirlpool." The US is looking for new directions in foreign policy as it has failed in Middle East including in Iraq. The Israel-Lebanon conflict shows that the US and Israel have been trapped in a struggle for regional balance of power with Iran and Russia. China and Russia have become "thorns" to the Bush administration in its implementation of foreign policy priorities, such as actions against Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Sudan. Bilateral ties are important for the US as for India. India however does not want others to see the relations with the US as sacrificing its policies. Rather it considers the relationship with the US as a partnership to achieve its dominant role in the region and globally. Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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