Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ICT Affairs Adviser and son Sajeeb Wazed Joy today explained why the Awami League secured absolute majority and its rival BNP experienced a debacle in the 11th parliamentary elections.

In a status published in his verified Facebook post, Sajeeb Wazed Joy has given his analysis of the polls results.

Here is the full text of the status:

The BNP and Okyo Front, having been thoroughly rejected by our voters, have taken to begging their foreign masters for help. They are on an international lobbying and PR blitz to try to prove that our elections were rigged. The fact is that it is mathematically impossible. The Awami League's margin over the BNP is about 49 million votes. It is simply not possible to manipulate elections by 49 million votes without it being caught on everyone’s mobile camera. As for their claims of voter intimidation, even if every voter who did not vote for AL voted for the Okyo Front, they would still be more than 22 million votes short.

Still, a section of our so called "civil society" continues to join the BNP’s international PR campaign against our election. I would like to address all their complaints and raise a few of my own.

The first complaint is that voter turnout was too high and indicates false votes. The final voter turnout figure is 80% and it is not a record in Bangladesh. That distinction is held by the 2008 elections under the 2007-2008 "caretaker" regime when turnout was 87%. The AL won that election in a landslide with 48% of the vote by itself. In 2001 the voter turnout was around 75.6% and in 1996 it was 75%. Turnout was just slightly higher because this is the first fully participatory elections in a decade.

The second propaganda is that the ruling party received 90% of the vote. This is a complete falsehood. The AL by itself received around 72%. Our Mohajote allies received just under 5%. Even the 72% is not a record for the AL. In the 1973 election after Independence the AL received 73.2% of the vote. Just as the reason then was the AL led the country to Independence, our vote increase this time has two very good reasons.

The first reason is simply because our AL Government has improved the lives of our citizens more than any other government in Bangladesh’s history. We have become a middle income country, per capita income has trebled, poverty has been halved, almost everyone has access to education, basic healthcare, electricity, and the list is endless. If there was a way to improve the lives of the Bangladeshi people, our Government has done it or the progress is visible.

Our “civil society” keeps harping about how the Bangladeshi voters are anti-incumbent, but that is just an indication of how out of touch they are with the common man. If you are an ordinary citizen, even if you are a wealthy businessman, your life and business are doing so much better now since the AL has turned Bangladesh into the fastest growing economy in the world. Why would you vote against the government that has transformed your life and business?

The second reason is that our election campaign did not start last year. It started right after the 2014 elections. We have not wasted any opportunity to inform the Bangladeshi people that we, the Awami League, are solely responsible for the positive changes in their lives. All the social and economic successes that have happened were because of the vision, planning, execution and hard work of our AL Ministers, Members of Parliament, Councilors, everyone. While our opposition and “civil society” were busy complaining about problems, we were telling people how we were providing solutions.

One of the favorite refrains of our “civil society” was that we have the largest number of new voters in this election; they don’t care about political parties and would be anti-incumbent. What they did not consider was that these young men and women grew up with the visible development work of our AL Government making their lives better and easier every year. Why would they vote for anyone else?

I have been conducting opinion polls for the Awami League since 2013. If you will notice, there was a dearth of opinion polls from our “civil society” this year. Prior to the 2014 elections they were busy publicizing one poll after another how badly the Awami League was going to lose. The fact is very few people and organizations in Bangladesh know how to conduct an accurate opinion poll. I have studied polling at Harvard and have interviewed and tried several polling teams in Bangladesh before I found the one we use. We don’t do artificial polls to inflate our popularity because that does not give us the information we need. We poll to know what our popularity is for elections and so our polls need to be accurate.

Our final opinion poll two weeks before the elections showed that the AL would receive between 57%-63% of the vote and the BNP would receive between 19%-25%. So how did the AL receive 72% of the vote? Our opinion poll sampled the entire voters list in 300 constituencies, all 104 million voters. But there is never 100% voter turnout and elections were held in 298 seats, not 300. The number of registered voters in the 298 seats was 103.5 million and an 80% turnout means 82.8 million people voted. The AL received about 60 million votes. 60 million out of 103.5 million is 58% of registered voters in those seats. The AL actually received votes on the low side of our poll’s margin of error.

So why did the Okyo Front receive so few votes? There are some very logical reasons. The BNP’s Chairperson has been convicted and is in jail. Their Acting Chairperson is a fugitive who is not even in Bangladesh. Their organization is in complete disarray. But those are not the most significant factors. There is one factor our “civil society” doesn’t want to acknowledge as it makes the BNP look really, really bad!

I’ve observed its effect through annual opinion polls. Once the BNP started burning civilians alive during their 2013-15 arson attack campaign, their popularity fell off a cliff. Prior to the arson attacks the BNP was usually around 10% behind the AL in opinion polls. After the arson attacks they fell 30% behind and kept falling.

Then there was their self-defeating election campaign, or rather a lack of it. The first thing they did was bring out Tariq Rahman to pick election nominees. All this managed to do is remind people of Hawa Bhaban and his corruption and violence. To add fuel to the fire, he picked known and wanted criminals and war criminals as candidates! Do you think their popularity would increase or decrease after this?

Next, the message they kept sending out to their supporters until the last minute was that they would boycott the elections. If you think your party is going to boycott, are you going to go out to vote? This is what caused the drop in their voter turnout and hence, their low percentage of the vote.

Finally, the only message the BNP and Okyo Front had for the people of Bangladesh is that the AL is bad. Given that the people could see the visible improvements in their lives over the past decade of the AL Government this was an extremely tough sell.

The Oikyo Front’s figurehead Kamal Hossain did not even run in this election. Why is that? It is because he knew he had absolutely no chance of winning a seat for himself. Of course, they surprised us. For the very first time in their existence as a political non-entity, his Gono Forum has actually won not one, but two seats! If there was any rigging in these elections, how could an opposition party that has never won a single seat win two?

The truth is far simpler. If you’re a citizen and especially a youth who sees a dynamic leader such as Sheikh Hasina developing and transforming the country, it won’t matter how much mud the opposition slings. At the end of the day you are going to vote for the party that is improving your life and the country.

Chief Election Commissioner KM Nurul Huda yesterday rejected the Transparency International Bangladesh report on irregularities in the 11th parliamentary polls, terming the report “baseless”.

Besides the CEC, two ministers criticised the report. 

Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader, also road transport and bridges minister, called the TIB report a “fairy tale”.

Information Minister Hasan Mahmud said the TIB report was a “deliberate falsehood” and it echoed the speech of opposition alliance -- Jatiya Oikyafront -- regarding the December 30 polls.    

On Tuesday, the TIB in its study titled “Review of Election Process of 11th National Election” said irregularities took place in 47 out of the 50 constituencies it surveyed. 

It termed the polls “partially participatory, non-competitive, questionable and faulty" and demanded a judicial inquiry into the reported irregularities.

The anti-graft watchdog said ballot papers stamping took place the night before the election in 33 constituencies, stamping ballots openly after occupying booths in 30 seats on the election day and non-availability of ballot papers in 22 constituencies.

The TIB study found ballot boxes filled-up before polling even began in 20 constituencies; voters forced to cast ballots for a particular symbol in 26 constituencies, casting of fake votes in 41 seats, silence of the administration and law enforcing agencies in 42 seats and obstructing and driving out polling agents in 29 seats.

In the 50 constituencies, not all the polling centres necessarily saw the anomalies. Irregularities happened in one or more centres of a seat, the watchdog said.

'IT IS BASELESS'

“We are completely rejecting the TIB report on the election. It is baseless,” the CEC told reporters after an orientation programme of the newly appointed Election Commission officials at the Nirbachon Bhaban in the capital yesterday.

The CEC said there was no similarity of the TIB report with those published in newspapers and accounts of other observers on the voting day.

Information provided by the election enquiry committees, executive magistrates and EC officials and others on the polls also do not match the TIB findings, he said.

The CEC also slammed the TIB's allegation that the EC failed to act neutrally and the role of some polling officers and law enforcement agencies were biased, saying, “The speech is disrespectful ... They should not speak like that.”

He said the commission would not take any step against TIB over its report.

'FAIRY TALE'

“The TIB has come up with the fairy tale long after the election,” Quader told journalists after an extended meeting of Dhaka South City unit Jubo League at AL's central office on the Bangabandhu Avenue.

“The TIB has cooked up so many imaginary and unbelievable stories. The countrymen will give a reply to the report.”

He termed the December 30 election transparent and excellent.

“Did any agent of BNP and Oikyafront candidates make any objection about the transparency of the election on the voting day?” Quader questioned.   

HASAN BINS REPORT

In another development, Information Minister Hasan Mahmud said, “There is no difference between the TIB    report and the speech of the Oikyafront. In fact, the TIB just published a report in favour of BNP and Jamaat-Shibir.”

He was addressing a press conference in his Dewanji Pukur Par lane house in the port city yesterday, reports a staff correspondent in Chattogram.

The minister added that though the TIB usually claimed that its reports were based on research findings. But in fact, no proper research was actually done. 

BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir today said this election has become a mockery.

The BNP leader made the comments to The Daily Star at the Syedpur Airport in Nilphamari when he was returning to Dhaka from Thakurgaon after voting ended today at 4:00pm.

Ruling party men and police worked hand in hand during this election, Fakhrul said.

“This is the death of democracy,” he further added.

The first three hours were peaceful, even festive at times as people came in to cast their vote at the polling centres in the Lalmonirhat 3 constituency since early morning.

The presence of female voters was notable, all queuing up in front of polling centres around sadar upazila waiting for their turn.

Polling agents of BNP and Jatiya Party candidates Asadul Habib Dulu and Golam Mohammed Quader respectively were there.

But the scenario started changing radically from 11:00am as Awami League (AL) activists began to arrive. They started calling out to voters, telling them to leave while forcing out BNP agents. No BNP worker or leader returned fearing attacks.

In some centres even police carried out such acts, snatching voter lists from BNP agents.

A correspondent of The Daily Star was present in a polling centre set up inside Lalmonirhat Government High School.

The presiding officer there, Rakibuzzaman, had locked himself inside a classroom after suspending voting around 12:30pm while some 300-400 AL men clamoured inside the school.

A judicial magistrate arrived half an hour later and coaxed him out. A visibly shaken Rakibuzzaman informed that the voting boxes, stamps and ballot papers had been taken away by the AL men. The judicial magistrate then left.

“Voting has been suspended in consultation with the UNO (upazila nirbahi officer) as the situation here was tense,” Rakibuzzaman replied on request for a comment.

On what happened to the voting materials, he abruptly turned around and again locked himself inside the classroom.

By 1:00pm the scenario had turned grim in most of the upazila's 89 polling centres: either voting was suspended or they were occupied by the AL men.

A correspondent of The Daily Star witnessed a local AL leader, Sumon Khan, and his men take over the Khochabari Primary School centre around 11:00am. They forced all others out within half an hour.

Villagers of Kulaghat came rushing to the correspondent during a visit to inform that AL men wielding sticks had chased them away from a voting centre in the local high school. They said normalcy returned when the army arrived.

Villagers of Shakoa staged agitations on a road after police created panic by chasing away voters, some even to their doorsteps, from the Shakoa Taj Mahmud High School centre.

BNP's Rajpur union publication secretary, Tojammel Haque, 62, died in Rangpur Medical College Hospital around 2:00pm on suffering injuries during a clash between AL and BNP men at Paglarhat Government Primary School in the initial hours.

Voting at the centre was suspended for some time.