The phrase "Potemkin village" refers to an elaborate facade designed to hide an undesirable reality. According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, the term comes from a popular myth where Grigory Potemkin, then governor of New Russia (modern Cremia), constructed fake villages to impress foreign dignitaries accompanied by Russian empress Catherine the Great in 1787. The legend goes that Potemkin would construct a pasteboard village—complete with waving, happy peasants—in advance of Catherine's arrival and deconstruct it shortly after she left, repeating the same charade over and over.

While the authenticity of this story is disputed, the term stuck and is now used by many observers to describe fake elections under authoritarian regimes. For example, in How to Rig an Election, Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas describe Potemkin elections as elections where "the pageantry of campaigning, the parade of voting, the charade of counting, all are engineered with one simple goal – to fool the West into believing that all was conducted fairly in a shining model of democracy. But behind the facade, the actual democratic scaffolding is often rotten – if it exists at all."

Alina Polyakova, in her article titled "Putin's Potemkin Election," vividly portrayed what they actually look like. Terming the Russian general election held on March 18, 2018 a "theatrical production," she said it involved elaborate stage settings, set designs and a handpicked cast of actors. A well-funded promotional campaign—with posters plastered across the country, highly produced television ads, and constant announcements on public transit—ensured a packed house on the day of the premiere. The star of the day was Vladimir Putin, and the production was the Russian presidential election. While it had all the trappings of a normal democratic election, it offered citizens no real choice. The most interesting part of the so-called election was not the result, but the impressive mobilisation capacity displayed by the state to physically get people to the polls to cast a meaningless vote in an "election" where the outcome was already known.

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Of the AL, for the AL, and by the AL

One may say that the upcoming election in Bangladesh resembles the aforementioned Potemkin election format. The government, the Election Commission and its commissioners, law enforcement agencies, candidates, and voters all know what is actually going to happen on January 7, 2024. But even then, the government is trying to make the election process seem credible.

Elections in democracies are usually hotly contested. The fiercer the competition, the more uncertain the outcome. But authoritarian rulers are not comfortable dealing with these challenges, and want to remove all uncertainty—usually by force. One way to eliminate electoral uncertainty is to abolish the electoral system altogether. But this poses the risks of local and international condemnation, alongside economic sanctions. So, modern authoritarian rulers need a system in which there will be elections, but without electoral uncertainty. It is from this urge that an election is turned into a staged drama.

Organising electoral drama is not easy. In addition to the ruling party, "proper" opposition parties, election commissions, election officials, law enforcement agencies, bureaucracy, judiciary, domestic and foreign election observers, etc are needed to complete the cast for the drama. Of these, the trickiest to manage are "appropriate" opposition parties. Naturally, real opposition parties will be reluctant to participate in such an orchestration. So, political, administrative, and/or legal pressures are created to force them to participate in the Potemkin polls, or favourable alternative opposition parties are created.

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Turn candidates' halafnama into amalnama

All active anti-government political parties in Bangladesh—including BNP, the major opposition party on the streets—are demanding the election to be held under a non-partisan, neutral government. They have refused to participate in the election under the ruling government, citing the experience of past questionable elections in 2014 and 2018. With BNP remaining rigid in its stance, thousands of the party's leaders and activists, including its central leaders, have been arrested and jailed, while hundreds of activists have been sentenced in "ghost cases." Attempts have also been made to lure BNP leaders into Trinamool BNP and Bangladesh Nationalist Movement (BNM), the two parties known as the "King's parties", to participate in the upcoming election, But with few exceptions, there has been little success on this front.

But an election without any competition will not be acceptable at home or abroad. To combat this, the ruling Awami League has encouraged its leaders to compete as independents or "dummy candidates" against its own nominated candidates. Although 27 out of 44 registered parties are participating in the election, none are strong enough to compete against AL. To keep the allies in its fold, AL decided to share six seats with the 14-party alliance and withdrew 25 of its own nominees from the race to allow Jatiya Party (JP) an easy win in those seats.

As a result, there will be an election on January 7 in which the nominated candidates of the ruling AL will "compete" against its dummy candidates, while the main "opposition" party will be elected with the ruling party's support. So, this election will likely be nothing but a friendly match between AL and its allies—the winner of which is already decided. Like Russia's Potemkin election, the main challenge will be to ensure enough voter turnout so that it looks participatory enough. For this, AL has reportedly formed 42,000 committees for each polling centre whose task will be to bring recipients of government benefits to the polls on election day, besides AL's own voters. To this end, the ruling party will conduct door-to-door campaigns and arrange transportation for the voters.

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When the ruling party does the opposition's work

Competition among participating political parties is vital during elections. But if the competition is confined between the ruling party and its allies, then there is no risk of the former losing power. Hence, the election is robbed of its accountability mechanism.

In Bangladesh, even though elections are held every five years, the people are deprived of the accountability process that a genuine election would feature. Due to this unaccountable, monopolistic rule, the human rights situation, the state of the rule of law, and the economic crisis have seriously worsened in the country. Since the competition on January 7 will only be limited to the ruling party's own circle, there is hardly any possibility of this election positively impacting our political and economic conditions.

Kallol Mustafa is an engineer and writer who focuses on power, energy, environment and development economics.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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The recent killing of a Jubo League leader in Natore, allegedly by BNP-linked men, serves as another grim reminder of the cycle of political retribution that has followed the fall of the Awami League regime, in what appears to be a tit-for-tat response to how Awami League had treated BNP and its affiliates while in power. According to a report, the victim, Saidur Rahman Babu, succumbed to his injuries on Wednesday after a brutal assault. He had been in hiding since his home was attacked on August 5, but on October 30, he was caught by his assailants, tied to an electric pole, and beaten with sticks and iron rods. Saidur's family accused Kabir Hossain Kangal, a Jubo Dal leader, of leading the assault and previously demanding Tk 5 lakh in exchange for his safety.

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BNP faces the weight of history and expectations

These vengeful incidents are showing little sign of abating even after three months. It's quite frustrating for those who had expected the culture of political repression to end with the end of an autocrat's rule, paving the way for a politics that truly serves public interests. The ongoing violence and harassment targeting the once-ruling camp raise concerns about a likely resurgence of authoritarianism under different banners. Almost every day, we get to see some troubling sign of authoritarian tendencies—murder, vandalism, threats, opportunistic extortion, forced takeover of properties, frivolous lawsuits, etc. Data from the rights group Manabadhikar Shongskriti Foundation (MSF) also reflects the persistent nature of these politically motivated crimes, with at least 12 fatalities in October, nine linked to Awami League alone.

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A call to end the cycle of revenge politics

This, on a broader level, aligns with how political parties that were part of the AL-led 14-party alliance are being targeted, with a report by this daily revealing that many party offices were vandalised, abandoned, and even repurposed. Some public outbursts towards these parties were expected because of their role over the past 15 years, and particularly their complicity or silence during the brutal killings of students and other ordinary citizens during the July-August uprising. But what's happening now seems more politically designed, which is concerning.

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BNP’s unfolding strategic stance: Straddling the aftermath of a revolutionary ‘event’ and realpolitik

We, therefore, call on the interim government and leading political parties to break this cycle of retributive violence. The BNP secretary general on Thursday said that party leaders and activists have "taken a fresh vow to resist hegemonic forces" and safeguard democracy. We appreciate the gesture but would like to see matching actions on the ground. Political parties, including BNP, that once suffered heavily during Awami League's rule must ensure that they don't end up repeating its wrongs. The onus also falls on the government to establish accountability of the excesses being committed, particularly by ensuring thorough investigations and fair trials for all political killings as well as punitive action against anyone committing or inciting political violence.

The ruling 14-party alliance will stage a human chain in Dhaka city on February 15, protesting Pakistan’s denial of 1971 war atrocities and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia’s statement on the number of war martyrs.

Health Minister Mohammad Nasim, also the alliance’s spokesperson, made the announcement at a press conference following a 14-party alliance’s meeting in Dhanmondi today.

The minister at the conference also said, “We will organise the human chain as we are the largest alliance that believes in the spirit of the Liberation War. Other likeminded political parties, cultural and social organisations will also take part in the human chain.”

Further details about the human chain will be disclosed later, he informed.

ALSO READ: Pakistan denies committing war crimes in 1971

On November 30 last year, Pakistan summoned acting high commissioner of Bangladesh Maushumi Rahman to its foreign ministry and denied committing any war crimes or atrocities during the 1971 Liberation War.

Pakistan also rejected Bangladesh's statement that condemned Islamabad's concern over the recent executions of war criminals Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed and Salauddin Quader Chowdhury.

Meanwhile, BNP chief Khaleda Zia on December 21 in her first public address in more than a year, said: “There are controversies over how many were martyred in the Liberation War. There are also many books and documents on the controversies.”

ALSO READ: MARTYR REMARK: Legal notice served on Khaleda

Khaleda's comment came hot on the heels of Pakistan's denial of committing any war crimes or atrocities in Bangladesh during the nine-month war of independence.

Freedom fighters, war crimes researchers, martyrs' family members, war crimes prosecutors and different pro-liberation organisations were angered by Khaleda’s comment questioning the number of martyrs in the country's Liberation War.

Coming a year before the general election, and nearly a year after the formation of the incumbent Election Commission, it is natural that the six by-polls held Wednesday would be viewed against the wider political backdrop. It was, therefore, frustrating to know how little things have changed, despite the relative lack of violence, which would have been something to look out for under different circumstances. It's quite evident now that any changes, or promises of changes, made over the past year or so only cemented the status quo, which doesn't bode well for our electoral future.

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Calling the by-polls 'free and fair' dims hope for 2024

If we're to pick a word to summarise the by-polls, it would be "absence" – absence of voters, absence of interest from the wider society, absence of strong safeguards against irregularities, absence of main opposition BNP, whose lawmakers' resignation from parliament had led to the by-polls. Voter turnout was poor in all the six constituencies. As per an estimate, only about 28 percent of voters showed up, in a trend that has been persistent throughout all local elections and by-polls held over the last few years. The predictable nature of election outcomes, and the lack of trust about the neutrality of responsible state departments, seem to have caused ennui and despair among the people.

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Two by-polls, 29 years apart – yet so similar?

It seems almost futile to ask why the Election Commission is failing to address voter apathy despite repeated appeals from election observers. The EC, after the latest by-polls, again stuck to its "peaceful and well-organised" narrative, even though we have received reports of various election-related irregularities from a number of constituencies. The EC's failure to recognise that the mere appearance of elections is not enough is really alarming. We need fair and participatory elections. And we need the EC to restore the trust of all voters and opposition parties alike.

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Will pre-election politics remain peaceful or become violent?

Another major concern about the by-polls is the "disappearance" of the main rival of the eventual winner in the Brahmanbaria-2 by-poll. This by-poll – which saw a voter turnout of less than 16 percent, the lowest of all constituencies – has been in the news ever since the winner, expelled BNP leader Abdus Sattar Bhuiyan, was backed by the ruling Awami League, which didn't field a candidate there. Abu Asif Ahmed, an independent candidate, has been missing for about a week now. Which makes us wonder: why is nothing being done to find him? What message does it send to the political opponents of the ruling party? And how long will the EC refuse to address the concerns of the opposition parties?

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Is the EC fighting an unwinnable war?

The culture of fear, distrust and criminality that still plagues our electoral system must be removed, and the ruling party must play a leading role in this. Lack of violence in one election means nothing given how political violence and repression continue to occur in every other sphere. If anything, the recent by-polls have shown that we have remained stuck in the same spot for too long, and the authorities must allow genuine reforms to break this status quo. They must help create a level playing field for all parties, and restore public trust in the function of the electoral system.