That the BNP chief Khaleda Zia would not be directly involved in her party's activities or politics has been a moot point since February 2018, when she was jailed on corruption charges. BNP's failed movement to release Khaleda from jail seemed to further ensure that her days in politics had indeed come to an end – although the matter has made headlines recently, thanks to the contradictory comments made by the ruling Awami League leaders. With the next parliamentary election less than a year away, the matter has understandably gained much attention.

Khaleda Zia's legal rights notwithstanding, the BNP, which is effectively the main opposition camp in Bangladesh, smells a rat in all this. Party insiders suggest that the ruling party is intentionally reviving the issue as a topic of debate. The ruling party leaders, on their part, counter that they have no intention of bringing the issue to the fore, but have just explained what is written in the executive order on the basis of which the 77-year-old BNP chief walked out from jail on health grounds.

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Debate if Khaleda can do Politics: Her health more pressing question

The debate on whether Khaleda could come back to politics began when senior Awami League lawmaker Sheikh Fazlul Karim Selim said on January 26 that she had been released from prison "with an undertaking" not to get involved in politics. It took a new turn when Law Minister Anisul Huq and Agriculture Minister Abdur Razzaque said she could indeed make a comeback to the country's political scene, but not contest elections, only to be countered by Information Minister Hasan Mahmud and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader.

Amid this debate, the BNP has decided to be extra cautious. With the election round the corner, any mistake could cost them dearly as the party has been out of power for three consecutive terms. In the last two elections, they took different approaches that brought them the same outcome: nothing.

There are at least four possible scenarios for which the BNP suspects the Awami League has intentionally revived the Khaleda Zia issue.

First, the BNP has been rather successful in their street campaign to push its 10-point charter of demands, including a general election under a non-partisan interim administration. Many were sceptical about the party's organisational strength to wage any such campaign. Many even mocked the party for thinking of a campaign on the streets. But the BNP proved everyone wrong and has been running a successful campaign with wide public support, challenging the ruling party with huge rallies. The recent discussion about Khaleda, according to BNP insiders, is to throw the party off its game; the street campaign will be defused as leaders would get busy talking about the party chief.

Second, there is a "pressure" on the government to hold an inclusive and credible election. Without the participation of the opposition BNP, the next election would not be an inclusive one. So, the issue of Khaleda's engagement in active politics could be a ploy to get the BNP to come to the table for talks.

Third, the party fears that if Khaleda Zia becomes active in politics, the government may suspend the executive order that allowed the former premier to get out of jail. The government might claim that since Khaleda is active in politics, she must be in good health, and hence must go back to jail.

Fourth, since Khaleda has been in jail, her elder son and the party's Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman has been at the helm of the party. The current campaign has also been taking place under his leadership. Those who don't like Tarique's leadership within the BNP, however, have no option but to go along.

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Protest Programmes: BNP plans to get back momentum

The party, so long as it is under Tarique's leadership, is adamant about not joining the polls under the Sheikh Hasina government. So, if that section of leaders brought Khaleda back to politics, it would create enough of a buzz for the old guards to rally around the former prime minister. That would challenge Tarique's leadership within the party and, at the same time, it would be possible to send Khaleda back to jail, and split the party and bring a section of the party to the election to make it inclusive.

Whatever the case may be, the BNP leadership has decided to remain quiet for now. What is almost certain, however, is that in politics, one does not get a second chance to seize the initiative. And the BNP appears to have lost its chance. The party leaders could well have tested the waters with a countermove soon after the law and agriculture ministers' comments. What if they had mentioned that Khaleda would speak to the press shortly? Or that she would address a public meeting remotely from her home? What would have happened? At best, she would have had half an hour that would be the most covered and most watched news event in quite some time. At worst, she would be sent to jail and the BNP would have another reason to take to the streets with a stronger resolve for the 10-point demand. What is certain is that it would have tested the ruling Awami League's sincerity or resolve.

The BNP's current risk-averse behaviour is not conducive to running a successful campaign. Electoral politics needs quite a lot more pluck.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

It is a fundamental principle of justice that any person accused of a crime is considered innocent until proven guilty. This is to ensure the legal rights of the accused throughout a trial. The case of jailed BNP leaders Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and Mirza Abbas appears to be a contravention of that principle. Their bail petitions in a case filed over the December 7 clash between BNP activists and police have been rejected for the fourth time now.

As we know, since that clash, hundreds of leaders and activists of the BNP and its front organisations have been arrested. Mirza Fakhrul, the party's secretary general, and Mirza Abbas, a member of its standing committee, were arrested in the early hours of December 9, on charges of inciting violence. While these arrests follow the well-established political strategy of rounding up opposition activists after any clash, one expects the judicial process to follow its own course and take decisions impartially. However, the repeated denial of bail to Fakhrul and Abbas raises concerns about that process.

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AL's strategy of intimidation may no longer be working

To be clear, we're not commenting on the merit of charges brought against them. Their guilt or innocence is for the court to establish. But until that has happened – and so long as they're not flight risks, which they are not – they deserve to get bail like everyone else. Importantly, their names were not even in the First Information Report (FIR) of the case in which they were implicated, while two other BNP leaders – Amanullah Aman and Abdul Kader Bhuiyan – whose names were there in the FIR of the same case were already granted bail by another court. Why this discrepancy? Why different bail decisions in the same case? Are we to accept a breach of legal principles here, and presume them guilty until proven innocent? Who will account for the time they are kept behind bars if they are eventually proven innocent, or if this case drags on indefinitely, which most political cases tend to do?

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Pursuit of peace through violence?

We're talking about two top leaders of our main opposition party. Both are veteran politicians, hold high ranks in their party, and have had ministerial portfolios during BNP's last term in office. They are also reportedly sick, leading to the court directing jail authorities to provide them with proper treatment. Their social status and physical conditions alone would have merited a bail consideration. Unfortunately, in recent years, there have been many instances of bail denials in cases involving rival politicians and government critics. Should we see them as a mere coincidence, or is there any external influence behind such decisions?

We hope the judiciary will reconsider the bail petitions of jailed BNP leaders. It will only help its image and credibility among the public at a time when the judiciary is facing a challenge to establish rule of law amid a complex interplay of legal loopholes, institutional barriers, lack of resources, and intense political pressures that are making justice difficult to deliver. We hope it will rise to that challenge.

The recent killing of a Jubo League leader in Natore, allegedly by BNP-linked men, serves as another grim reminder of the cycle of political retribution that has followed the fall of the Awami League regime, in what appears to be a tit-for-tat response to how Awami League had treated BNP and its affiliates while in power. According to a report, the victim, Saidur Rahman Babu, succumbed to his injuries on Wednesday after a brutal assault. He had been in hiding since his home was attacked on August 5, but on October 30, he was caught by his assailants, tied to an electric pole, and beaten with sticks and iron rods. Saidur's family accused Kabir Hossain Kangal, a Jubo Dal leader, of leading the assault and previously demanding Tk 5 lakh in exchange for his safety.

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BNP faces the weight of history and expectations

These vengeful incidents are showing little sign of abating even after three months. It's quite frustrating for those who had expected the culture of political repression to end with the end of an autocrat's rule, paving the way for a politics that truly serves public interests. The ongoing violence and harassment targeting the once-ruling camp raise concerns about a likely resurgence of authoritarianism under different banners. Almost every day, we get to see some troubling sign of authoritarian tendencies—murder, vandalism, threats, opportunistic extortion, forced takeover of properties, frivolous lawsuits, etc. Data from the rights group Manabadhikar Shongskriti Foundation (MSF) also reflects the persistent nature of these politically motivated crimes, with at least 12 fatalities in October, nine linked to Awami League alone.

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A call to end the cycle of revenge politics

This, on a broader level, aligns with how political parties that were part of the AL-led 14-party alliance are being targeted, with a report by this daily revealing that many party offices were vandalised, abandoned, and even repurposed. Some public outbursts towards these parties were expected because of their role over the past 15 years, and particularly their complicity or silence during the brutal killings of students and other ordinary citizens during the July-August uprising. But what's happening now seems more politically designed, which is concerning.

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BNP’s unfolding strategic stance: Straddling the aftermath of a revolutionary ‘event’ and realpolitik

We, therefore, call on the interim government and leading political parties to break this cycle of retributive violence. The BNP secretary general on Thursday said that party leaders and activists have "taken a fresh vow to resist hegemonic forces" and safeguard democracy. We appreciate the gesture but would like to see matching actions on the ground. Political parties, including BNP, that once suffered heavily during Awami League's rule must ensure that they don't end up repeating its wrongs. The onus also falls on the government to establish accountability of the excesses being committed, particularly by ensuring thorough investigations and fair trials for all political killings as well as punitive action against anyone committing or inciting political violence.

We are heartened by the message given by BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir who, in an interview with the UNB news agency, voiced support for Awami League's right to exist as a party and participate in elections. "Why should the Awami League be excluded from the polls if we truly want democracy? If an old political party like the Awami League wants to participate in the polls, people should have the chance to determine their fate," he said. He also suggested that the tendency to ban parties from the political processes comes from a "flawed" understanding that is neither right nor practical, referring to past attempts in Bangladesh and elsewhere.

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BNP faces the weight of history and expectations

This is a refreshing gesture that contrasts sharply with the deeply entrenched culture of exclusion and political revenge that has long characterised our politics. One may recall how ruling parties in the past, not excluding BNP, often used state machinery and bellicose rhetoric to undermine opposition voices. In fact, it was Awami League that led a sustained campaign of political subjugation throughout its 15-year rule. It is too early to say if BNP's public support for Awami League's democratic rights means the beginning of a departure from that tradition. But its message of inclusivity and reconciliation is something that the country needs at the moment.

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Can a Third Way politics transform Bangladesh?

That said, we do hope that BNP will take this positivity beyond public statements. To truly fulfil the democratic aspirations of the people and credibly support the ongoing reform drive by the interim government, it is crucial that political parties embrace internal reforms to help crystalise their visions for the country. Because, without building a political system that is responsive, accountable, and reflective of people's desires, state reforms—no matter how radical—cannot bring about much change. And BNP, as the leading party in the country now, has a major role to play in this.

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Reforms needed in political parties and the electoral process in Bangladesh

BNP has yet to share a roadmap for internal party reforms in tune with the spirit of the mass uprising. Since August 5, we have come across multiple reports on how BNP-affiliated leaders, activists and professional groups attempted to take over various establishments, businesses, and sectors formerly occupied by their Awami League counterparts, fueled by their confidence that the party is returning to power. That is a troubling development, mirroring corrupt and authoritarian tendencies from the past. The challenge for BNP then is to differentiate itself from the regime it helped to topple, which it can do by undertaking internal reforms and building a political consensus for the broader changes necessary to strengthen our democratic institutions.

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A call to end the cycle of revenge politics

Ultimately, its ability to embrace and implement political reforms will be the true test of its commitment to a better, more democratic Bangladesh. That goes for all other political parties as well.

The lists of dengue infections and deaths are only getting longer, and nobody can tell if, or when, the situation will get better. The prices of daily essentials continue to skyrocket, with the price of eggs, the go-to protein for the poor, now equal to that of a kilogram of broiler chicken. Meanwhile, more than 50 people were killed in the floods in Chattogram and the Chittagong Hill Tracts area in recent weeks.

In all of this, it is the common people (or in the context of the upcoming national election, the voters) who are the worst sufferers. But the politicians seem to be blissfully oblivious to the plight of their electorate. There is no denying that the country is headed towards its next parliamentary election with the two major political parties harbouring opposite stances regarding the election itself. Of course, a free, fair, and inclusive election is necessary for a better society and stronger democracy. But when people are suffering the most, when they are dying because of poor governance, how can the political parties focus on only the physical exercise of the election and how it will play out in about four months? Shouldn't their focus be on how best to serve the people now? Shouldn't they be concerned about the welfare of the poorest of society? Shouldn't our politicians be working to win the hearts and minds of the people, instead of engaging in political power play with their archrivals?

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Living like the poor, paying like the rich

Ideally, and historically, people get into politics for the welfare of their people. But it appears from recent political machinations that the people have been conveniently forgotten or even sidelined in the game of politics. When one political party says that the country's people are with it, and the other party claims that it represents the people, I can't help but wonder who it is that is actually representing me, or has my interests at heart.

Bangladeshi politics is going through a critical phase. The fact is that politicians have lost control over politics in general, which appears to have been hijacked by corporate interests – given the representation of businessmen and former bureaucrats in the parliament. Currently, around 62 percent of lawmakers are from the business sector. The government's dependency on the administration has increased. And none but the politicians have brought this upon themselves, in their pursuit of shortcuts and expediency. When career politicians become weak, so does politics. And when the people are sidelined, politics – so far as it is concerned with maintaining democracy – becomes more fragile.

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Is the Awami League worried?

It is in this context that the exhortations of the diplomatic corps in Dhaka – India, China, the US, and the EU – about the supremacy of the people and how they hope that the people's wishes will be reflected in the outcome of the election, are both ironic and intriguing.

The two previous elections changed the nature of Bangladeshi people's participation in national politics. The 2014 election, which BNP had boycotted and which saw 153 lawmakers being elected uncontested, remains a rare example of a lopsided election. In the 2018 election, many people were denied the right to cast their votes, and allegations emerged of ballot-stuffing on the eve of elections, so much so that it was even mentioned by Awami League's alliance members. When politicians found that they could get elected even without votes, voters ceased to become a factor to consider when trying to win elections. In the past, candidates did have to woo voters, and win their hearts and minds to get their votes. But now, when a mere nomination all but guarantees victory for a candidate, the exercise of putting in effort to win voters has become all but cosmetic.

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Did BNP make the wrong call?

On the other hand, while the opposition can do little so far as actual measures are concerned – whether that relates to dengue or prices – it is their responsibility to hold the government accountable. It falls on the opposition to keep these issues alive so that the government cannot ignore them. One way to do that is in parliament, which has unfortunately lost its purpose since the official opposition is, by and large, an informal extension of the ruling party alliance. Meanwhile, the main opposition camp on the streets, BNP, is too obsessed with its one-point demand for a resignation of the ruling government than with the plight of the voters.

So now, whenever I hear calls for this or that "in the name of the people," and when political parties launch campaigns for the supposed sake of the people, it seems to me that those politicians are merely cementing their political careers using the name of the people. Is anyone actually thinking about the families of those 50 people who died in the floods? Or about the children who are going to bed hungry in Bangladesh even now? That one has to pose such questions in a column is perhaps an even bigger tragedy.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.