Last December, BNP managed to create a strong momentum with successive divisional rallies, defying obstacles from the ruling party cadres and law enforcement agencies. But it lost that momentum when it tried to hold a rally in Dhaka. Since then, the party – which has been out of office for more than 16 years – has been trying to regain that thrust. This time around, BNP held a series of programmes around Dhaka and got some traction thanks to its supporters, leading up to its grand rally of July 28. The party was also able to hold the rally at its preferred venue, in front of its Nayapaltan headquarters. Tens of thousands of BNP workers joined in, defying myriad odds and obstacles. It turned out to be a mammoth rally and, encouraged by the turnout, BNP announced sit-in programmes at five entry points of the capital the very next day, presumably to cut off Dhaka from the rest of the country for several hours between 11am and 4pm. But the sit-in failed in the face of the ruling party's strong presence on the street and the aggressive attitude of the police. And again, BNP lost its momentum.

Since then, a few questions have been circulating in political circles: why did BNP go for such a programme? What did it achieve? And what will the party do now that the national election is just a few months away?

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For every rally, there is a counter-rally

After the announcement of BNP's one-point demand – resignation of the ruling government for a caretaker government to oversee elections – movement on July 12, the party took only 16 days to announce the sit-in demos. Coordination among the party fronts and associate bodies, which requires time, is imperative to make such ambitious programmes successful, but there seems to have been a lack of coordination among BNP leaders in this regard. Even some of the party's senior leaders were in the dark about these programmes till they were announced. The decision of a sit-in demo of such a scale, without much time on its hands, indicates that BNP was in a hurry.

There is no denying that the party has a strategy in place to achieve its goal of the next election being held under a nonpartisan, election-time government. But it seems that the plan may not be as well thought out as BNP supporters would like. The party's leadership felt charged up seeing the large-scale turnout in the rally, but they underestimated the government's strength and strategic abilities. This explains why BNP couldn't succeed entirely in its programme, and now seems to have backtracked from its tough stance. After the sit-in, the party announced demos in districts and cities across Bangladesh, which is a deviation from its Dhaka-centric plans. The lack of coordination and confidence in terms of holding large rallies and showdown-like programmes can demoralise grassroots BNP supporters, who are paying a high price for the erroneous judgement calls of the party's top brass.

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Can BNP really put up a good fight?

For the longest time, BNP has argued that the government and law enforcement agencies are obstructing their peaceful rallies, and the events which unfolded on July 29 has once again lent credence to their clams. The attack by ruling party men, in the presence of the law enforcement agencies, has laid bare just how "democratic" the government will be in the lead up to the elections. Of course, some BNP men did engage in violent activities during the sit-ins, but the previous programmes of BNP were largely peaceful, despite instigations. Either way, BNP knows that any violence from its own party will eventually work against itself. And this time, the party is being careful as it was accused of conducting arson attacks in 2013 and trying to sabotage the January 5, 2014 election.

Back in 2013, the party did not come up with alternative strategies when they saw that the blockades were not working. At least this time around, they have backtracked from their plans and proposed an alternative when they realised that the sit-in had failed. This could be interpreted as the party being more mature and wiser in its current decisions.

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What is the point of attacking BNP rallies?

BNP's real loss in all this was giving the upper hand to the ruling party. There was no doubt that the ruling party felt pressure, especially after the composed and largely organised grand rally. But the following day, when ruling party cadres were able to easily disperse the BNP demonstrators, it worked like a morale-boosting tonic for the former. They felt more confident about being on the streets and not giving anything away to the BNP. This was essential for the Awami League at a time when it seemed to be under pressure from different directions to hold a free and fair election. Now it remains to be seen whether BNP can once again revive their momentum and give the ruling party a run for their money.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

This year, the Victory Day feels particularly significant due to this year's powerful uprising. To commemorate this special day, here are some events to help you embrace the spirit of patriotism. 

Among them is a special concert titled "Shobar Agey Bangladesh", organised by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), taking place today at Manik Mia Avenue.

The concert will feature artistes including Syed Abdul Hadi, Khurshid Alam, Kanak Chapa, Baby Naznin, Monir Khan, Kona, Imran, Pritom, Mousumi, and Xefer. Additionally, popular bands such as Nagarbaul, Ark, Shironamhin, Artcell, Avoid Rafa, Different Touch, and Souls will also perform.

Bangladesh Shilpakala Academy has organised a day-long program to celebrate Victory Day, featuring a month-long exhibition titled "2024: Oi Notuner Keton Ure". This exhibition showcases posters, paintings, photographs, videos, and cartoons that capture various aspects of the July uprising. It aims to create a comprehensive archive documenting student and public protests, the fall of authoritarian regimes, and dynamic movements through wall writings, murals, and photographic records. Cultural Adviser Mostofa Sarwar Farooki will inaugurate the exhibition at 7 pm. 

A special dance performance, titled "Mora Jhonjhar Moto Uddam" will be presented by artists from the Bangladesh Dancers' Foundation. Renowned singer Ferdous Ara will also perform a special solo musical performance, alongside band performances by Artcell and Lalon.

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Revisiting big-screen Liberation War classics

If you prefer to stay home and enjoy some uplifting movies and music on TV, here's a list of programmes you can look forward to.

Banglavision will feature a special guest, renowned singer Shaheen Samad, on their morning program "Din Protidin." An esteemed artiste of the Swadhin Bangla Betar Kendra, who played a key role in motivating millions during the 1971 Liberation War, Shaheen Samad will share inspiring stories of the freedom fighters and reflect on the experiences of Victory Day. She will also discuss her dreams about music and the current state of affairs. The program will air at 8:30 am today.

Boishakhi TV will broadcast a special drama titled "Birongona", starring Aparna Ghose as Birongona. The drama highlights the sacrifices and struggles faced by the unsung heroes of 1971. The cast also includes Rawnak Hasan, Manoj Pramanik, Riya Khan, and Monir Zaman in key roles. It will air at 10:30 pm today.

At 10:00 am, "Hangor Nodi Grenade," directed by Chashi Nazrul Islam and starring Sohel Rana, Suchorita, and Rajib, will be telecast. At 2:30 pm, the movie "Alor Michil", directed by Narayan Ghosh Mita and featuring Anwar Hossain, Babita, Razzak, and Sujata, will also air.

Bangladesh Television (BTV) has arranged a range of special programmes, including documentaries, children's shows, dance performances, musical events, self-composed poetry recitals and dramas.

BTV will broadcast the special drama "Chobi Kotha Bole" at 9:05 PM, starring Kazi Asad, Momena Chowdhury, AK Azad Shetu, Sallha Khanam Nadia, Sabbir Ahmed, and others.

Channel i will air the Impress Telefilm production "Oggatonama", directed by Tauquir Ahmed, at 3:05 PM. Additionally, a special telefilm titled "Tumi Asbe Bole" will be broadcast at 9:35 PM.

At 10:15 am, "Sphulingo" will be aired, starring Pori Moni, Zakia Bari Mamo, and Shamol Mawla. At 2:10 pm, the movie "Bhuban Majhi" will be shown, featuring Parambrata Chattopadhyay and Aparna Ghose in the lead roles.

At Maasranga Television, a special drama titled "Shesh Prohor" will air at 10:30 pm. Directed by Chayanika Chowdhury, the drama stars Shashwata Datta, Aisha Khan, Abul Hayat, and others.

Advocate Sultana Kamal, a human rights activist and the founder president of Manabadhikar Shongskriti Foundation, speaks with Eresh Omar Jamal of The Daily Star about Bangladesh's 12th parliamentary election and its ramifications for the country's political and governance landscapes.

With BNP boycotting the January 7 election, and some of the parties who participated in it bargaining with Awami League for seats beforehand, how would you describe the latest election?

I have been giving my comments on the election which was held on January 7 for months. Now that it has already happened, to me, the event of January 7 cannot be called an "election" by any definition, let alone "a participatory election." We all know the arrangements for distribution of seats between the contesting parties were settled amicably beforehand. The election was held in the name of fulfilling a constitutional obligation, which in reality turned out to be a ritual participated by friendly contestants.

By boycotting the election, didn't BNP give AL a free ride? One could argue that the ruling party created a repressive environment for the opposition prior to the election, but by terming its movement as a movement to "oust the government," what sort of a reaction did BNP expect?

Yes, BNP did.

As I kept saying since the 2014 election, BNP made a big (fatal for them) mistake by not participating in the election. True, they did take part in the 2018 election. But by then, they had already lost their position as a political party strong enough to influence the national political psyche. Insisting on terming their movement as a movement to "oust the government," without posing a viable alternative to the nation, was nothing but a blunder on their part. BNP must have expected considerable support from the general people in the context of Awami League's extremely repressive rule, lack of good governance, and democratic deficit. But its failure to provide a convincing picture of a better future did not yield the expected result for BNP.

Given the election results, who do you expect will be the parliamentary opposition? Will that also be decided by AL? And what effect will all this have on the future of Bangladesh's politics?

It is obvious that there will be no effective parliamentary opposition for at least the next five years as, without a few exceptions, all in the parliament are Awami League's people. It's an open secret that non-Awami League contestants were not only allowed to participate in the election at the wish of the AL leader, their winning a seat, too, was dependent on the same factor. An opposition perhaps will be declared officially as a matter of rule. But there is no reason to believe that it will be without AL's knowledge. I am afraid I don't feel very optimistic about Bangladesh's future under the given condition. However, I will definitely be happy if I am proved wrong.

How would you rate the performance of the Awami League government over the last five years? And do you expect any changes this term?

The Awami League government over the last five years concentrated on heavy, visible infrastructural development, in which they showed considerable success. It was during this period that Bangladesh qualified to graduate from being a least-developed country to a developing one. It has also made some progress in attaining a few of the SDG goals in the fields of women's empowerment, enrolment of female students, extending community health services, etc. Bangladesh's GDP grew impressively. The number of ultra-rich in society increased at unprecedented speed. But at the same time, according to eminent economists, the country's economy plunged into uncertainties. This, compounded with a repressive, exploitative, and unethical political atmosphere, created insecurity for people in social, public, and personal spheres. Though Awami League consistently claimed to have run the country according to the spirit of our Liberation War and the ideals of Bangabandhu, ironically, strengthening of democracy, rule of law, zero tolerance for corruption, and respect for human rights of all, and efforts to create a common humane social culture, seem to have disappeared from their agenda.

As said by many, over the past few years, Bangladesh has been divided into two different "societies." One for the rich and the advantaged, the other for the disenfranchised and disadvantaged. This directly contradicts with our constitutional directives as well as what we stated in our Declaration of Independence. In short, Awami League rulers have failed to rise up to their own declared ideals.

However, during the election campaign, Awami League's leader Sheikh Hasina urged the people of Bangladesh to look at their mistakes leniently. I hope the Awami League government this time will take care not to repeat their past mistakes, which go against the spirit of our Liberation War and create an atmosphere of crisis for democracy and good governance.

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Coming a year before the general election, and nearly a year after the formation of the incumbent Election Commission, it is natural that the six by-polls held Wednesday would be viewed against the wider political backdrop. It was, therefore, frustrating to know how little things have changed, despite the relative lack of violence, which would have been something to look out for under different circumstances. It's quite evident now that any changes, or promises of changes, made over the past year or so only cemented the status quo, which doesn't bode well for our electoral future.

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Calling the by-polls 'free and fair' dims hope for 2024

If we're to pick a word to summarise the by-polls, it would be "absence" – absence of voters, absence of interest from the wider society, absence of strong safeguards against irregularities, absence of main opposition BNP, whose lawmakers' resignation from parliament had led to the by-polls. Voter turnout was poor in all the six constituencies. As per an estimate, only about 28 percent of voters showed up, in a trend that has been persistent throughout all local elections and by-polls held over the last few years. The predictable nature of election outcomes, and the lack of trust about the neutrality of responsible state departments, seem to have caused ennui and despair among the people.

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Two by-polls, 29 years apart – yet so similar?

It seems almost futile to ask why the Election Commission is failing to address voter apathy despite repeated appeals from election observers. The EC, after the latest by-polls, again stuck to its "peaceful and well-organised" narrative, even though we have received reports of various election-related irregularities from a number of constituencies. The EC's failure to recognise that the mere appearance of elections is not enough is really alarming. We need fair and participatory elections. And we need the EC to restore the trust of all voters and opposition parties alike.

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Will pre-election politics remain peaceful or become violent?

Another major concern about the by-polls is the "disappearance" of the main rival of the eventual winner in the Brahmanbaria-2 by-poll. This by-poll – which saw a voter turnout of less than 16 percent, the lowest of all constituencies – has been in the news ever since the winner, expelled BNP leader Abdus Sattar Bhuiyan, was backed by the ruling Awami League, which didn't field a candidate there. Abu Asif Ahmed, an independent candidate, has been missing for about a week now. Which makes us wonder: why is nothing being done to find him? What message does it send to the political opponents of the ruling party? And how long will the EC refuse to address the concerns of the opposition parties?

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Is the EC fighting an unwinnable war?

The culture of fear, distrust and criminality that still plagues our electoral system must be removed, and the ruling party must play a leading role in this. Lack of violence in one election means nothing given how political violence and repression continue to occur in every other sphere. If anything, the recent by-polls have shown that we have remained stuck in the same spot for too long, and the authorities must allow genuine reforms to break this status quo. They must help create a level playing field for all parties, and restore public trust in the function of the electoral system.

We are heartened by the message given by BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir who, in an interview with the UNB news agency, voiced support for Awami League's right to exist as a party and participate in elections. "Why should the Awami League be excluded from the polls if we truly want democracy? If an old political party like the Awami League wants to participate in the polls, people should have the chance to determine their fate," he said. He also suggested that the tendency to ban parties from the political processes comes from a "flawed" understanding that is neither right nor practical, referring to past attempts in Bangladesh and elsewhere.

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BNP faces the weight of history and expectations

This is a refreshing gesture that contrasts sharply with the deeply entrenched culture of exclusion and political revenge that has long characterised our politics. One may recall how ruling parties in the past, not excluding BNP, often used state machinery and bellicose rhetoric to undermine opposition voices. In fact, it was Awami League that led a sustained campaign of political subjugation throughout its 15-year rule. It is too early to say if BNP's public support for Awami League's democratic rights means the beginning of a departure from that tradition. But its message of inclusivity and reconciliation is something that the country needs at the moment.

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Can a Third Way politics transform Bangladesh?

That said, we do hope that BNP will take this positivity beyond public statements. To truly fulfil the democratic aspirations of the people and credibly support the ongoing reform drive by the interim government, it is crucial that political parties embrace internal reforms to help crystalise their visions for the country. Because, without building a political system that is responsive, accountable, and reflective of people's desires, state reforms—no matter how radical—cannot bring about much change. And BNP, as the leading party in the country now, has a major role to play in this.

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Reforms needed in political parties and the electoral process in Bangladesh

BNP has yet to share a roadmap for internal party reforms in tune with the spirit of the mass uprising. Since August 5, we have come across multiple reports on how BNP-affiliated leaders, activists and professional groups attempted to take over various establishments, businesses, and sectors formerly occupied by their Awami League counterparts, fueled by their confidence that the party is returning to power. That is a troubling development, mirroring corrupt and authoritarian tendencies from the past. The challenge for BNP then is to differentiate itself from the regime it helped to topple, which it can do by undertaking internal reforms and building a political consensus for the broader changes necessary to strengthen our democratic institutions.

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A call to end the cycle of revenge politics

Ultimately, its ability to embrace and implement political reforms will be the true test of its commitment to a better, more democratic Bangladesh. That goes for all other political parties as well.