There is currently a huge Awami League-shaped hole in Bangladesh's electoral politics, so BNP trying to dive headlong into it comes as no surprise. Since Sheikh Hasina's fall on August 5, BNP has had to navigate a delicate tightrope—balancing its ambition to return to power with the pressure to support popular demands for state reforms. The party doesn't want to risk the ire of the very students that ousted its arch-rival, potentially putting it in pole position to win the next election. But reforms take time, something it doesn't have plenty of after nearly two decades of wait. And the grassroots are getting impatient.

"Impatient" is perhaps an understatement for what has unfolded over the past month and a half. A more fitting description would be a chaotic transformation of a party getting used to having things its way. As BNP-affiliated leaders, activists, and professional groups scramble to fill the void left by Awami League, we are getting an early preview of the making of another regime—and it's nothing short of disturbing.

For example, since August 5, at least 14 BNP members have lost their lives, eight of them in factional clashes. The most recent murder occurred on Friday in Chattogram's Changaon area, where a Jatiyatabadi Jubo Dal activist was fatally stabbed during a clash between rival factions. On the same day, heavy clashes between two BNP-linked groups in Chandpur left at least 30 people injured. On Sunday, a similar clash in Narayanganj left at least 12 injured, followed by another in Kushtia two days later, injuring 10 more. These violent power struggles, often revolving around the control of extortion rackets, have become disturbingly common. In that, the BNP grassroots seem to be re-enacting scenes from Awami League's time in power which, too, was plagued by factional infighting, with over 150 of its leaders and activists killed in mostly turf wars since the 2018 election.

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Over the past weeks, reports have also emerged of BNP leaders and activists taking over slums, footpaths, transport hubs, extortion rackets across various markets and informal businesses, and even former Awami League offices. Meanwhile, in the civil service, there have been allegations against BNP-affiliated groups trying to influence promotions, placements, public contracts, etc.

Officially, the party is against such practices. Tarique Rahman, the acting chairman, recently warned that BNP will not tolerate any reckless actions by "misguided" individuals that could harm "the trust and love" it has earned through "years of struggle, sacrifice, and perseverance." He urged party members to "identify and resist" those tarnishing BNP's image, emphasising its commitment to not only expelling such individuals but also taking "legal action" against them.

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These warnings coupled with occasional disciplinary measures, however, have proven insufficient to deter errant party supporters, which suggests two things: either those were not strict or convincing enough, or the party is not trying hard enough. Both scenarios are likely in an environment of patronage politics that has long been the mainstay of our political culture. This system of patronage begins at grassroots with the capture of extortion rackets or other undue benefits by political thugs, and culminates with systemic regulatory capture by vested interest groups, all of which serves as an incentive for them to keep working for a party. Barring exceptions, the prospect or promise of mutual gain largely governs the relationship between major parties and their supporters.

BNP, for all its pro-reform posturing in the aid of the interim government, has yet to demonstrate a real willingness to dismantle this corrupt system. While, to be fair, it has shown some signs of remaking itself as a party with a more open political ethos, the revolutionary times that we are living through demand much more.

Ironically, Awami League's ouster through a bloody uprising has stripped BNP of two key advantages that it could have used in an election campaign: anti-incumbency bias, and public sympathy for the repression it had endured. In an alternate reality where those factors still mattered, BNP could have expected Gen Z—with no lived memory of its 2001-06 rule—to support it unquestioningly, and older generations to accept it as the lesser of two evils. The problem is, the new generation has shown a political maturity beyond their years, and to win them over, BNP now must offer something genuinely new.

Ironically, Awami League's ouster through a bloody uprising has stripped BNP of two key advantages that it could have used in an election campaign: anti-incumbency bias, and public sympathy for the repression it had endured. In an alternate reality where those factors still mattered, BNP could have expected Gen Z—with no lived memory of its 2001-06 rule—to support it unquestioningly, and older generations to accept it as the lesser of two evils. The problem is, the new generation has shown a political maturity beyond their years, and to win them over, BNP now must offer something genuinely new.

So far, it has been giving mixed signals. On the one hand, it acknowledged that repeating Awami League's mistakes could lead to the same fate for itself, stressing the importance of understanding the shift in people's mind-sets. On the other hand, it continues to call for elections as soon as possible. Its rhetoric surrounding the student-led mass movement, trying to co-opt it as its own, and its suggestion that long-term reforms should be left to an elected government also reveal glaring contradictions. Perhaps the army chief's recent statement—in which he vowed to back the interim government "come what may" to possibly ensure elections within the next 18 months—will prompt BNP to reassess its approach. While expecting an election roadmap is not unreasonable, it must lift its sights beyond its ambition and bring the reform drive to its own doorsteps.

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Reforms needed in political parties and the electoral process in Bangladesh

At 46, BNP is in need of renewal, and the sooner it realises this, the better. As the largest party in the country now, it has a responsibility not just to its leaders and activists but to the entire political landscape. To truly demonstrate that it remains in tune with the spirit of the mass uprising, BNP needs to lead by example and undertake the following initiatives.

First, it must help dismantle the patronage system by making it clear to party leaders and supporters that BNP politics will henceforth offer no undeserved benefits, and anyone using its name for such purposes will be met with swift punishment. Second, it should ask its loyalist groups within the civil service to stop influencing decisions, or risk being blacklisted. Third, it should establish a democratic, secular, and gender-inclusive party structure, and have a high-powered committee constantly check erosion of these values in party activities. Fourth, it should bring clarity on its finances by making the names of its donors public and conducting internal audits of assets held by party leaders. Fifth, it should control its grassroots leaders and activists, preventing infighting and any criminality through strict enforcement of disciplinary measures.

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A call to end the cycle of revenge politics

Sixth, it should comply with the Representation of the People Order (RPO) clause that prohibits political parties from having affiliated student or teacher organisations. Over the years, political parties, including BNP, have bypassed this law on mere technicalities, passing their student wings off as "brotherly" or "associate" organisations, thus enabling crimes and hegemonic practices that led not only to a deep distrust of student politics but also unimaginable sufferings.

There can be many other reforms that are necessary. What BNP can do to remake itself in line with the spirit of the mass uprising can be the topic of a discussion that the party should itself encourage for its own benefit.

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Just before the January 7, 2024 election, I wrote an article titled "Can BNP survive the pre-election meltdown?" amid heavy crackdowns by Awami League. I guess the question now is, can BNP fulfil the post-uprising expectations? After all, if political parties do not break free from their long-entrenched monopolistic and authoritarian attitudes, changing the constitution and implementing other state reforms cannot prevent future regimes from turning dictatorial again. BNP has a historic responsibility in this regard. 

Badiuzzaman Bay is an assistant editor at The Daily Star. 

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

The track record of illegally seizing state power cost the legitimacy of the opposition parties, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ICT Adviser Sajeeb Wazed Joy said, condemning the parties for their lack of involvement with democracy.

"Both Ziaur Rahman and HM Ershad formed BNP and Jatiya Party respectively to legitimise the power they seized illegally. These parties have no involvement with the democratic system of the country, they rather are regularly cheating on the ordinary people in the name of politics," he said in a Facebook post.

Joy shared two posts - text and video- in which he said BNP has continuously failed to earn the public trust as a strong opposition due to its lack of pro-people politics, and it is affecting the overall welfare of the state.

Lashing out at them for having no "pro-people or pro-state political philosophy", Joy went on saying, "The leaders of the BNP, who claimed themselves as the opposition, do not have any pro-people or pro-state political philosophy. Rather, their party constitution encourages corruption as there is no example in world history to amend the party constitution to induct the corrupt persons into it."

The CRI chairperson also heavily criticised the founder of BNP, saying, "Dictator Ziaur Rahman" basically formed BNP to perpetuate the illegally occupied power.

"He supplied guns to the university students on the pretext of introducing his party's student wing. In the guise of forming committees across the country, BNP organised all terrorists and miscreants and formed a special force. Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman also continued the same trend later."

"When these parties were in power illegally, they did not let any strong opposition grow through their subversive activities and repression. In this digital era, the leaders and activists of these parties are also constantly fooling and confusing ordinary people by spreading rumours online. As a result, other parties are not getting the opportunity to criticise the government constructively and give good advice on various issues," he also said.

The party was isolated from public connection during its birth, Joy said, "therefore, its leaders and activists are also isolated from one another and their relations are mainly in exchange for money."

Comparing the inception of Awami League and that of opposition parties, he said the Awami League was born in 1949 through a mass movement against the exploitation of the Pakistani government.

"This party appeared as strong opposition by organising people to take to the streets in all movements and struggles. But the position of the two so-called main opposition parties in Bangladesh is just the opposite. Both BNP and Jatiya Party were born overnight as government parties," added Joy.

A new film titled "Operation Jackpot", highlighting the daring guerrilla missions of naval commandos during a pivotal moment in Bangladesh's Liberation War, is currently in production. 

The project, backed by the Ministry of Liberation War Affairs, aims to bring this crucial chapter of history to the big screen.

Following the political shift in August, concerns have arisen about the film's prospects, with fears that it might not be released. However, Swapan Chowdhury, head of the production company Antar Showbiz, provided a reassuring update in a recent interview with Ajker Patrika. 

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He emphasised that the government transition would not interfere with "Operation Jackpot", stating that all plans are in place for the film's release on Victory Day this year.

Production began in January at the FDC, yet, despite nearly ten months passing, the filming remains unfinished. When asked if the recent political changes had affected the film's progress, Chowdhury responded, "Since the political landscape shifted in August, many have told me my film would never see the light of day."

He added, "That assumption is completely unfounded. Some believe that because the project began under the previous government, it would focus on the Awami League and Bangabandhu. But this film is not about Bangabandhu or any political party. 'Operation Jackpot' is about a naval commando operation, without any political agenda. Whether Awami League or BNP, the government ultimately represents the people of Bangladesh, and this is a government-backed project."

On the delay in completing the film, Chowdhury explained, "At the moment, many things are in transition. The government is focused on reforms and addressing pressing issues, which has slightly slowed the film's progress. Nonetheless, the change in government won't stop the film's completion."

Reports suggest that while most of the filming is complete, a few scenes required reshooting after failing to receive approval from certain ministry officials. Chowdhury confirmed these adjustments but emphasised that they are minor and will not significantly impact production.

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He stated, "The ministry has made a few minor observations. Some areas need colour correction, and adjustments to the background music are required. I'm in constant communication with the ministry, and we are making the necessary changes, both locally and internationally."

Initially, some scenes were planned to be shot in Paris, but due to the current situation, alternatives are being explored. "We had planned to shoot a few scenes in Paris, and we're still aiming to do that. However, given the challenges, if it's not feasible, we are considering CGI for those scenes. Our goal is to release the film in December, the month of victory, and we aim to wrap up the remaining work by next month," Chowdhury explained.

From the beginning, "Operation Jackpot" has been mired in controversy. A few years ago, the Ministry of Shipping initiated plans to produce a film based on the events of the operation, with Giasuddin Selim set to write and possibly direct. However, when the project went to tender, Antar Showbiz secured the contract with a budget of Tk 21 crore, outbidding Selim's company.

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The film is now being directed by Delwar Jahan Jhantu, with India's Rajib Biswas serving as co-director.

Casting choices also sparked debate. Zayed Khan and Nipun Akter were initially cast in leading roles, but Zayed was unexpectedly dropped just before filming. Rumours suggest his removal was at Nipun Akter's request. Additionally, Bappy Chowdhury, who had initially signed on, withdrew due to unfulfilled promises from the production company.

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The film features a star-studded cast, including Ananta Jalil, Nipun Akter, Amit Hasan, Omar Sani, Emon, Nirob, Roshan, Shipon, Sanju, Joy Chowdhury, Pallab, Ilias Kanchan, Kazi Hayat, and Misha Sawdagor.

In the recently concluded Rangpur City Corporation (RpCC) election, Awami League's mayor candidate, Hosne Ara Lutfa Dalia, lost her security deposit as she failed to secure the minimum number of votes required for saving the deposit.

Defeat of the ruling party candidate was expected, though, as Rangpur is popularly known as a stronghold of the main opposition in the parliament, Jatiya Party (JP), and also the hometown of its founder, the autocratic former ruler HM Ershad. In fact, the AL's top leadership might also have been aware of the possible result and had an intention of giving a walkover to the JP candidate.

But did anyone expect that the ruling party candidate would lose her security deposit or manage to bag only eight percent of the votes? Or that she would place fourth in the race? 

Obviously not. In fact, this is a nightmare for the AL and something it would surely try to shake off as soon as possible.

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Rangpur City Polls: Intra-party feud, ‘wrong pick’ to blame for AL’s rout

Although during the election campaign, the AL candidate had highlighted the development activities of the government, none of that seems to have mattered when voting came around.

Despite it being a stronghold of the Jatiya Party, the ruling AL has a very good position in Rangpur. The first mayor of the city corporation, in 2012-2016, was AL-backed Sarfuddin Ahmed, who had defeated Mostafizar Rahman Mostafa. In the second polls, Mostafizar won, defeating the AL candidate. But this time, the defeat of the ruling party candidate was a shameful one.

So, what was different this year?

One factor is that the party possibly failed to pick the right candidate for the RpCC polls. Dalia is a lawyer by profession and a loyal and seasoned politician. But things changed when she became a lawmaker through a reserved women's seat in the last parliament. Since then she got disconnected with the people at the grassroots level as she mostly lived in Dhaka. Hence, other ruling party aspirants getting ahead in that regard and intra-party feuds also contributed to AL's defeat.

That's why we saw an Awami League leader, Latifur Rahman, rebelling against the party's decision to contest the election, and subsequently getting more votes than the party-nominated candidate herself. But he, too, lost his security deposit.

Still, it is evident that the party's selection of a candidate was not right.

But the AL general secretary, Obaidul Quader, told journalists that the choice of candidate was correct, and that there were some internal issues.

"We have some intra-party problems there [in Rangpur] …We are looking into those. We are going to take major organisational action in Rangpur within a week."

But intra-party problems are not the only reason behind the defeat of Dalia. 

The other, and to me the most significant point, is that the ruling party's influence over the JP is an open secret to all. And something that the people of Rangpur did not take positively. Whenever the national election comes around, the AL tries to put pressure on the JP. They say that the JP has played a very crucial role for the ruling party in every election since 2009. 

But Jatiya Party leaders were not properly or duly treated by the ruling party members. Many believe that if JP had not sided with the ruling party, it would have been tough for the Awami League to continue in office for as long as it has done.

This other point to note is that Ershad's home is located in the RpCC area, whose inhabitants are known to be very close with and loyal to the late former president. In recent months, the drama over JP leadership – between GM Quader and Rowshan Ershad – also angered Ershad supporters. So they showed their maximum strength voting for Mostafizar.

A stunning detail from the RpCC polls is that Amiruzzaman Pial of Islami Andolan Bangladesh secured the second position, defeating both the AL and its rebel candidate. Many said that Amiruzzaman got votes from BNP supporters, who only wanted to ensure a humiliating defeat for the ruling party. Of course, the BNP's position in this northern district is very poor and its election results in recent history have been dismal.

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Besides all this, the RpCC polls also proved that Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) will be a big challenge in countryside polling stations. Media reports show that voting was slowed down due to the use of EVMs. The situation was worse in recent times as voting continued in a few centres till 8pm. Chief election commissioner, Kazi Habibul Awal, said, "Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) are slow. Besides this, voter turnout is also high. For this reason, voting can be done till 8pm in the night."

So before taking any final decisions on using EVMs in the next polls, the Election Commission will hopefully think carefully. Otherwise, disaster may ensue as the national election will be held for 300 seats in a single day. 

Elections are like a festival for the people of Bangladesh. People want to take part in the festivities, and it is the responsibility of the Election Commission to create an atmosphere that people feel welcome to join. 

The lesson to learn for the ruling party is that its activists and supporters are its heart, as they hoisted party flags in the remotest parts of the country defying all odds. So, the AL must think of what those at the grassroots want before picking any candidate. Otherwise, humiliating defeats will occur in free and fair polls.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is deputy chief reporter at The Daily Star.