After having weathered a difficult 15 years in the opposition camp, it is natural that there would be chaos in a big party like BNP as it goes about reorganising its house with an eye on the next election. But after over two months since the fall of Awami League, BNP still seems nowhere close to establishing internal discipline. Rather, reports of widespread extortion, infighting, and other illegal and unruly activities by party members are overshadowing its pro-people messages to become the dominant narrative surrounding the party. If morning shows the day, then critics are perhaps right to wonder if a BNP regime would be significantly different from the one it helped to oust.

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BNP faces the weight of history and expectations

This concern has again come to the fore after a report by Prothom Alo revealed how two BNP leaders, including the convener of BNP's recently-dissolved Dhaka North unit, have taken over extortion operations at key transportation hubs in Dhaka, including the Mohakhali bus terminal, where over a million taka is allegedly collected every day. After August 5, they took control of the Dhaka Road Transport Owners' Association. They also established control over local businesses and even mosques in areas previously controlled by Awami League's inner circle. At the terminals, extortion is taking place in various forms, such as charging fees for using illegally set facilities like toilets and showers, entry or exit fees for long-distance buses, etc. Clearly, little has changed in terms of abuse of power after the regime power.

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BNP must control errant party activists

This is despite what appears to have been a large-scale purge within the party. To date, according to another report by Prothom Alo, some 1,023 leaders have faced various disciplinary actions over the past two months—with 523 receiving show-cause notices, 437 expelled, 24 suspended, 35 warned, and four served notice for breaching party discipline. There have been even instances of dissolution of entire committees. Despite all such measures, the persistence of unruly activities by party members points to deep-seated structural issues within the BNP that need to be resolved first.

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Stop political capture of the public sector

The time has come for a critical rethink by the BNP leadership. They must recognise that the stakes now are higher than ever. If BNP cannot get its house in order, it risks alienating not just the reformists within the party but the broader population who expect real change after decades of political instability and corruption in the country. So, besides ensuring sustained disciplinary actions, BNP must find out what's emboldening errant party members and undertake comprehensive reforms by placing ethical and democratic conduct at the heart of its operations.

With the national election still two weeks away, many national and international observers have already termed it as a farce or "staged election", and it is easy to see why. One of the key features of any election is the ability of voters to select the winner. If voters are not presented with any real options to choose from, then arguably the most important purpose of an election is defeated. That is why we saw the ruling party scrambling to field dummy candidates or bargaining with the Jatiya Party to make up for the absence of the BNP and other like-minded parties, thus giving the election some sort of legitimacy.

Let us not forget that the idea of fielding dummy candidates this time—we have, of course, heard about it in previous elections also—came from the very top of the Awami League. So, if the ruling party itself is offering voters the option to choose from either a candidate of the Awami League or a dummy, what real options do voters have? And what message are they to receive from the ones conducting this election—namely, the Election Commission—who, knowing this, is still going ahead with the election? Are people to believe that the EC is conducting it in the interest of voters? Of course not.

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Why do other parties need AL’s concessions to win election?

The EC asking the home ministry to take steps to prevent political rallies and processions of all kinds, except for electoral campaigns, from December 18 till polling day, also makes it complicit in suppressing protests against what a number of opposition parties see as being a farcical election. Interestingly, earlier on that same day, the Awami League's general secretary urged the commission and law enforcement agencies to take a strong stance against forces that the ruling party saw were against the elections—mainly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Such a step to stop political rallies and programmes, it can be argued, is unconstitutional, as it denies political parties in the opposition camp the right to assembly, the right to protest, the right to movement and the right to free expression.

As concerning as the use of such a tactic may be, it hasn't been the only one used to set up what seems to be a staged and one-sided election. Last month, The Guardian reported how Bangladesh saw "full prisons and false charges" due to the crackdown on the opposition. Following such "a ruthless crackdown on the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party" in the run-up to the elections, it noted how few "believe the election will be free, fair or remotely democratic." This strategy, according to The New York Times, is leading to "Bangladesh's multiparty democracy…being methodically strangled in crowded courtrooms."

The expediated trials leading to the convictions of hundreds of opposition leaders and activists further validate such apprehensions. For example, on December 11, at least 42 BNP members and those of its infamous allies—Jamaat-e-Islami—were convicted in four cases. Between August-December, 961 opposition leaders and activists were reportedly sentenced to imprisonment in 62 cases in Dhaka. What makes these especially controversial is that convictions were apparently made without considering any independent witnesses or only with police deposition, and defence lawyers further alleged that less than half of the prosecution witnesses were heard. Furthermore, it must be noted that such speedy disposal of cases is unusual in a country where justice delivery has become particularly slow. This fact, and our previous history of witnessing politically motivated cases right before elections, indicate that opposition leaders are again being targeted and kept out of the electoral fray.

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Of the AL, for the AL, and by the AL

In that regard, the recent comments made by Awami League presidium member and agriculture minister Abdur Razzaque, that jailed BNP men were offered freedom if the party agreed to contest the polls, is telling. Although AL later tried to play it down and its general secretary said it was Razzaque's personal opinion, it lends further credence to the public perception that all these arrests and convictions are being made in trumped up cases for political reasons. Additionally, it raises two very important questions: 1) If we are currently in a situation where the ruling party can decide to arrest and release thousands of opposition leaders and activists, is it really conducive for a free and fair election? And 2) what has happened to the independence of the legal system?

Such an admission and the underlying state of affairs—for example, since 2009, 1,37,569 cases have been filed against 49,80,826 BNP leaders and activists—show that the Awami League is bent on ensuring its grip over power by using the full might of the state machinery. What is missing in all of this is the role of the citizens, who have all but lost their right to vote. As a result, government officials across the board are no longer accountable to the people and so, the people no longer have any say in how the state is being run, nor how the elections should be conducted. So, even though it's been the opposition that has mainly been on the receiving end of the government's high-handedness and the ruling party's vitriol, ultimately, it will be the general people who are likely to be the biggest losers of the elections.

Eresh Omar Jamal is a journalist at The Daily Star. His X handle is @EreshOmarJamal

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

The January election has been the centre of attention for well over a year now. Everyone was curious how this edition would eventually pan out, especially whether BNP would finally be able to pressure the government into forming a nonpartisan election-time government, which is difficult, if not impossible. Some were just excited about the possibility of voting and it actually counting, unlike the last two elections. However, with BNP's boycott confirmed and seats distributed among Awami League's alliance, the results are almost a foregone conclusion.

Brig Gen (retd) M Sakhawat Hussain, former election commissioner, said this election is essentially a quest for an opposition party (read opposition in parliament). Although 27 parties are contesting in the polls, the search for a viable opposition remains the most prominent feature. The situation is so obvious that even someone without much political insight can predict that the ruling AL will form the next government with an absolute majority.

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Youth depression is a symptom of broader societal malaise

So, when the results are a foregone conclusion and winners are already known, the election has little significance. The results are predictable as the elections will be held under a range of restrictions.

The restrictions are an important issue here. The Election Commission asked the government to take measures so that no political programmes, other than for electioneering, can be held after December 18. In a letter sent to the home ministry, the EC said parties should be stopped from holding rallies and other public events that may "obstruct the election process and discourage people from casting their votes." The measures should be in place till after the election on January 7, said the letter, addressed to the senior secretary of the Public Security Division.

It is the EC's role to ensure a congenial atmosphere for people to cast their votes freely. But the way the commission is stopping the activities of political parties is merely a bid to hide its failure through other means. This type of action had not been taken by any EC, not even by the 2014 Rakib commission. But this is not unexpected, as the commission itself announced the election schedule amid high security and beefed up police protection, with the deployment of armoured personnel carriers and water cannons.

Basically, this level of security at the EC betrays the election's true nature and how congenial the prevailing atmosphere is. True, BNP and other opposition parties are enforcing hartals and blockades, demanding a nonpartisan interim government. But the political opposition is fully within its rights to demand and campaign to oust the government. Obviously, opposition parties will not support the government when elections come around.

But for the EC to also act as an extension of the political government and bar political programmes that might "discourage people from voting" betrays its inherently nonpartisan design. Holding rallies is a fundamental right not just of a political party but also of individuals, a right that should not be tainted with equivocations or conditions, or intermitted because of "special circumstances." 

Not even the home ministry can lawfully abide by the commission's request. Just like casting votes is a right, so is not casting it. And so is waging a peaceful campaign to convince people not to vote at all. Since there is no "no vote" option, as there was in 2008, citizens may not feel compelled to vote. Thus, any campaign to discourage people from voting is as lawful as the urging people to vote for a certain candidate.

To complicate this further, in a television interview, ruling party leader and agriculture minister Abdur Razzaque said BNP received a number of generous offers. The party was even told that all its leaders would be released from jail overnight if it decides to join the January 7 election. 

Distancing the ruling party from Razzaque's comments, AL general secretary Obaidul Quader, the very next day, said the remarks were not of AL's but that of the minister's alone. On the same day, Razzaque said, "I think what I said, I did not say anything wrong, not a bit. The statement is correct." 

For a long time, BNP leaders have been accusing the government of politicising the legal system and imprisoning its activists and members illegally. Razzaque's statements only vindicate what BNP has been claiming all this time.

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Turn candidates' halafnama into amalnama

As BNP is not contesting the polls, it will try to make the election controversial, demonstrating the loopholes and deficiencies. And towards that end, the opposition parties must give a big thanks to Razzaque and the Election Commission, as they are doing the opposition's work, making it easier to illustrate that the system is so tainted that an election under Awami League would never be fair. 

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina already said that BNP is plotting to create a famine in the country, after realising that it won't be able to thwart the upcoming election, and perhaps realising that tough times are coming a few months down the line. We are hopeful that under Hasina's iron-handed leadership, there will be no such famine in the country. But it appears there is another kind of crisis under her watch—a 10-year drought of proper elections, a drought that won't let up soon, it appears.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

The fall of Awami League on August 5 following a mass uprising marked a historic shift in Bangladesh's political landscape, but it has also exposed deep cracks within the BNP, as long-suppressed party leaders, activists, and supporters scrambled to fill the void left by their rivals. Over the last month and a half, we have had various reports on the disruptive effects of this transformation. Turf wars, factional infighting, extortion business, and political capture of public sector by BNP-affiliated groups have made frequent headlines, despite stern warnings and occasional disciplinary measures by party high-ups. This is not only hurting its credibility—it also risks derailing the broader vision of reform that drove the uprising.

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Reforms needed in political parties and the electoral process in Bangladesh

Since August 5, according a report by this daily, at least 14 BNP members have lost their lives, eight of them linked to factional clashes. The latest incident occurred on Friday, in Chattogram's Changaon area, where a Jatiyatabadi Jubo Dal activist was stabbed to death during a clash between rival factions. The same day, there were heavy clashes between two BNP-linked groups in Chandpur, leading to the injuries of at least 30. Earlier today, a clash between two BNP factions in Narayanganj left 10 injured. Such events have become quite regular, often centring around the control of extortion rackets in various sectors. These violent power struggles mirror what plagued Awami League while it was in power, with over 150 of its leaders and activists killed mostly in internal feuds since its 2018 election win.

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Stop political capture of the public sector

The question is, why can't BNP control its activists? And how sincere is it in this endeavour, really? True, the party has recently expelled several local leaders for engaging in such violent and often illegal power exercises. BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir's statement that repeating the mistakes of Awami League may bring the same fate for BNP suggests an awareness of the changing reality. But official actions have not been convincing enough for the grassroots leaders and activists, especially because of their confidence about returning to power when the next election is held. This is nothing but opportunism, fuelled by a sense of impunity that the party has failed to dismantle.

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Stop extortion in transport sector

Historically, politics in Bangladesh has been held hostage by the patronage system that defined the interaction between parties and their grassroots enablers. While this has richly rewarded some parties, it has brought nothing but misery for citizens. For BNP to really stop its errant members and to credibly support the present campaign of reforms, it must first demonstrate its ability to reform itself. The changes it envisions for the state must start within its own rank and file. The creation of a democratic, transparent and accountable party structure—with zero tolerance for indiscipline, infighting, crimes, or any illegal capture of public institutions—will only enhance its standing as a party committed to genuine reform, not just power.

Firstly, I find it impossible to call what's happening on January 7 an election in any way. People already know who will occupy government positions, who will sit in opposition, and even who will win which seats. An election without uncertainty, where people lack the power to determine their representatives through voting, is a mere facade of an election.

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What comes after January 7?

Secondly, the voters do not have any real choice. Whether you pick candidates from Awami League, independent candidates (who are really representing AL in disguise), AL ally Jatiya Party, or candidates from any of AL's partner factions, it all leads to the same outcome: an Awami League dominance. Without options for voter representation, the January 7 event cannot be termed an election.

Thirdly, the escalating violence leading up to election day within Awami League factions in about every constituency paints a terrifying picture. I wonder, if this trend of violence continues, whether the drama staged to take place on the 7th will even be possible to conduct.

We already know that only a small group of experts will observe the election and that most major countries will not send their observers. International media outlets have already labelled this election as a "one-woman show" and a "one-horse electoral race."

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‘Why would Awami League need to resort to rigging in this scenario?’

Considering everything, I see no reason to call this an election. It's a pre-written affair, and the public will bear the brunt of its outcome. Bangladesh's economic crisis will worsen, and the suffering we are already enduring will only be amplified in the future.

Rumeen Farhana is barrister-at-law and former whip of Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.