Vladimir Lenin, after all, was right. Sometimes, there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. Glory to the martyrs and vanguards of Bangladesh who made it to a possible democracy once more!

In Bangladesh, August is apparently a month when decades happen. Karl Marx famously said, "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce." If the fall of the BAKSAL (Bangladesh Krishak Sramik Awami League) regime in August 1975 was a tragedy, the boisterous exit of the regime this August is a repetition, this time as a farce. The free fall of the regime is a relief for many; however, there are also darker clouds around in the horizon.

The odds are no less apparent. One of these concerns India, the nation-state's largest neighbour. The facts around the number one superpower, the US, are another concern. But I can't deal with the second topic in this space. Let me rather stay with only India today.

To some, the events of July-August, for all their valour and glory may tell the same old story. But it is not exactly a void in which they disgorge.

Read more

Hasina falls, flees

The coup d'état of 1975 was organised clandestinely. It was a civilian-military combined effort. There is good evidence that it was sustained by a Western power. The current conjuncture seems to involve a broad coalition of radical forces led by university students, sustained by the support of a cross-section of civil society, political parties and the so-called international community. The fallout now is more uncertain than ever, at least compared to what it was a half century earlier.

The Awami League regime in 1975 under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman had gone berserk with its one nation one leader "mantra". In 2024, the daughter's regime only went wilder with its sheer ruthlessness. History repeated itself.

It is perhaps too early to say what awaits us even in the not-too-distant future. A doubt pops up, nevertheless. What is the nature of the August 5 revolution? Is it a popular revolution like the French Revolution flying the banner of equality, human dignity, and social justice? Or is it to prove a coup d'etat of sorts, an 18th Brumaire of civil society, midwifed by the "international community", tailored by the armed forces? How different is it going to be from the events of January 11, 2007, events welcomed by the country's biggest neighbour, India? We hardly learn from history. That seems to be the only takeaway from history's department stores.

One does not choose from an empty set. Not a neighbour, at any rate. Nations act, as everyone knows, not as philanthropists or cynics but in their own best interest. Did Bangladesh's inevitable neighbour follow even a rule of its own best interest in underscoring the dynastic autocracy in Bangladesh? Was that the best option it had had? Will it learn a lesson, in all candour, this turnaround? These are questions best left to political pundits in India and beyond.

For us, citizens and denizens of Bangladesh, it is more of a single-payer option. India's unabashed selfishness in promoting a regime that clearly violated all rules of liberal democracy proves highly short-sighted, more now than ever.

What alternatives did India have to choose from is not apparent, or not well-known in any case. But it may even be non-transparent. In 1975, India blatantly ignored its lower riparian neighbour in claiming the Ganga-Padma as a virtually all-India domestic watercourse. That it is an international river, it apparently forgot then. India's stance on other watercourses changed little since then. The waters of the Teesta and many other common international rivers don't flow quietly anymore.

Border killings on a rhythmic scale are not simply a mystic symbol of India's political muscle but of its myopic nature. It is a bizarre thing: "India's Bangladesh Problem," as one pundit called it. Termites, they call their unhandsome neighbours.

India's China obsession, at least ever since her war with China in 1962, could have misled it to its Bangladesh policy. But a people who didn't put up with Pakistan's proto-colonial repressive regime of two and a half decades can hardly be expected (let alone taken for granted) to welcome such a proverbial "subsidiary alliance" as India desires to perpetrate on Bangladesh.

The latest regime change in the wake of a popular mass uprising should provide an occasion to rethink future relations between the two sovereign neighbours in South Asia, adorned by the common historical legacy of many centuries.

The immiseration of one neighbour for the benefit of the other can only be sustained by such regimes as the just fallen one in Bangladesh. India is a habitat, nay a breeding ground, of proverbial wise men. I am sure they will not be deluded by dreams of "Akhand Hindustan". That simply will not work.

The regime change of August 2024 may also provide an occasion to reflect on the question of national identity, a question the think tanks of national security (or regional imperialism if you like) can only ignore at their own peril.

Let history not repeat a second tragedy. The regime change in Dhaka, apparently, will enjoy the blessings of the "international community". But it is unlikely to work well if India does not think today what forces of circumstances will force it to think tomorrow.

India's best interest may perhaps lie in strengthening a new democracy in Bangladesh. At any rate, not obstructing democratic aspirations of a new generation in its eastward neighbourhood is the key point.

Dr Salimullah Khan is professor of general education at the University of Liberal Arts.

We welcome your contributions and analysis of global events. To submit articles to our weekly page, Geopolitical Insights, please send an email to ds.geopoliticalinsights@gmail.com

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

The ruling Awami League will take position at every ward in the capital, every districts and upazila headquarters from tomorrow.

Besides the party will hold mourning procession on Monday from the Institution of Engineers to Bangabandhu Bhaban at Dhanmondi 32.

Read more

Non-cooperation movement from Sunday

AL general secretary Obaidul Quader made the announcement at a press briefing at party president's Dhanmondi office today.

The spokesperson said Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced to hold talks with protesters. "We don't want any conflict. We are avoiding programmes that might create conflict as we don't engage in it," he said.

Quader called upon students to be responsible and alleged that many vested quarters are spreading propaganda on social media.

The interim government will bar the Awami League and the like-minded  parties from participating in political activities, said the chief adviser's office yesterday.

"Those who had taken part in the last three elections and come to parliament illegally deceived the people, and the interim government will of course put obstacles to their political participation," said Mahfuj Alam, special assistant to the chief adviser.

"You will see how these barriers will come into effect. It has a legal aspect and it has an administrative aspect -- you will see it soon. These things will become clearer when the election process starts."

Mahfuj was briefing journalists after talks with 10 political parties.

On a query about the possibility of banning the AL and its allies, he said  this will be decided upon discussions with different political parties.

"The government will not take the decision unilaterally."

At the dialogue with Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus, some parties yesterday demanded banning the AL and its allies or at least keeping them from taking part in the next national election.

Jatiya Party and other AL allies have not been invited to the talks.

Mahfuj said the government is not inviting the AL's allies as those parties provided "silent support and participated in the illegal elections".

Read more

ICT Act amendment: Draft proposes banning political parties up to 10yrs

"The interim government has made it clear that those parties were allies of fascism and consented to genocide -- they took a stance directly against the people. Similar views were expressed by the political parties."

About constituting the Election Commission, he said the government will soon form a search committee to appoint a new chief election commissioner and other election commissioners.

Discussions on election-related issues including voter list preparation will go on in parallel with the work of the reform commissions.

During the dialogue with 10 political parties yesterday, the issues of election, reforms, AL's financial crimes and the trial of those who enabled the mass killings in July and August were discussed, said Mahfuj, who was present at the meetings.

At the talks, the chief adviser assured the parties of fair prices of essentials, improvement in law and order and stability in the garment sector.

Also at the briefing, Shafiqul Alam, press secretary to the chief adviser, said the government is investigating how the AL leaders and former prime minister Sheikh Hasina managed to flee the country.

There was no government from August 5 to 8, and the police were on strike for about a week. As a result, many AL leaders have managed to flee.

"We tried our best to arrest them. We are still trying to arrest those who are in Bangladesh and involved in the genocide."

Asked about the investigation into those who assisted Hasina to flee, he said the probe is ongoing.

About the exclusion of controversial advisers and expansion of the advisory council, Azad Majumder, deputy press secretary, said: "Such proposals have been received from several political parties. The chief adviser carefully listened to the advice of the political parties. He will inform everyone in this regard following certain procedures."

Meanwhile, during their dialogue with Yunus, political parties also pressed the government to hold the next national election very soon after completing the ongoing reform works.

They demanded the interim government control the price hike of essentials and law and order.

Leaders of Gonoforum, Liberal Democratic Party, Jatiya Mukti Council, Jatiya Gonofront, 12 Party Alliance, Ganatantrik Bam Oikya, Nationalist Democratic Movement (NDM), Bangladesh Labour Party and Bangladesh Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal held talks with Yunus at the state guesthouse Jamuna.

Yunus's series of dialogues with political parties started with a nine-member delegation of the Gonoforum led by the party's Emeritus President Dr Kamal Hossain.

"We want the election to be held very soon after the completion of reforms. But we didn't mention any time frame," said Mostafa Mohsin Montu, chairman of the Gonoforum's coordination team, after the meeting.

If the next national election is held before completion of reforms, things will return to square one, he said.

Montu said they also urged the interim government to take steps to control the price hikes.

Oli Ahmed, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, demanded that the interim government ban the AL for fighting against the country's people in July-August.

"They illegally used the police [against the people]. They killed and injured 1,500 people. Awami League will have to be banned as it "fought a war against the country's 18 crore people," Ahmed told reporters after the meeting.

AL also turned Bangladesh into a hotbed of corruption, he added.

Andaleeve Rahman, chairman of Bangladesh Jatiya Party (BJP), said actions should be taken against the AL and its 14 party alliance members. 

"Whether the Awami League will be banned through an executive order or an order from the High Court is a different matter, but the process should begin," he said.

Terming the country's current constitution undemocratic, Jatiya Mukti Council Secretary Faizul Hakim demanded the enactment of a new constitution.

He also said that Hasina should be repatriated from India and put on trial.

"Sitting in India, the Awami League president is hatching conspiracies. This has to be stopped."

He demanded dismantling of market syndicates that are behind the price spirals.

He also called for a ration system in the country, adequate wages in the readymade garment sector and reopening of 25 sugar mills.

The recent statements on Bangabandhu and March 7 by some government high-ups have created controversy and the people did not accept those, said Sharif Nurul Ambia, president of Bangladesh Jasod.

"There is no logic in putting the blame on Bangabandhu for the mistakes of Hasina's former government. So, we think the statements should be corrected," he said.

The advisory council must be reformed before reforms are carried out elsewhere, said Mostafizur Rahman Iran, president of the Labour Party.

The two advisers representing students are doing well, but most of the others have "failed".

"That is why the unsuccessful advisers should be removed from the advisory council."

He also demanded arrests and punishment of the top Jatiya Party leaders for enabling the fascist government.

The AL and its 14 party alliance members and the JP are yet to be invited to the dialogue with Yunus.

On October 5, leaders of the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Left Democratic Alliance and six parties from the Ganatantra Mancha held dialogues with Yunus at the state guesthouse Jamuna.