What the big guns need to do

A football marathon in Russia over the past 10 days has given fans everything that they could have desired, from late winners and fantastical upsets to virtuoso solo performances and heartbreaks. But from today, the World Cup will be an unmatched spectacle of tension and drama, providing a feel for the knockout rounds to come, as the final phase of matches in the first round begins.

With only six teams -- Russia, Uruguay, France, Croatia, Belgium and England -- having qualified and the remaining 10 spots in the round of 16 up for grabs, every match from now on is a must-win encounter with three groups still offering a combination of all four teams advancing.

Not even the big guns, including Brazil and Argentina, can secure passage without victory.

Argentina's catastrophic run in their Group D matches -- which featured a draw to Iceland and a thrashing from Croatia -- leaves their last match against Nigeria as a virtual final. Both teams will have everything to play for and, providing that Iceland do not beat Croatia, the winner will advance to the round of 16. If Iceland do pull off a miracle, goal difference will come into play for Argentina. A win under any circumstance would see Nigeria through.

Brazil will simply need a win or draw against Serbia in their final Group E match to advance. However, in the event that Switzerland defeat the so-far winless Costa Ricans, nothing less than a win would give Brazil top spot in their group. A loss would see Serbia exit.

World Cup holders Germany are also far from safety in arguably the most open group -- where any of the four can go through or be eliminated -- although their shock loss to Mexico has been somewhat offset by the Toni Kroos missile that shook Sweden on Saturday night. Die Mannschaft must beat the winless South Koreans in their final Group F game and hope Mexico beat Sweden if they are to advance.

If both Sweden and Germany eke out 1-0 wins then they, along with Mexico, would be equal on points and goal difference. In that case Germany would clinch the top spot and Sweden the second, eliminating Mexico. However, a win for Mexico and a win by a two-goal margin for South Korea would see both Germany and Sweden eliminated.

In Group B, Portugal are nowhere near safety despite Cristiano Ronaldo's heroics. A loss would eliminate them, so they must win or tie against a plucky Iran to go through. Spain are relatively safe, but must win to ensure progression.

If both Spain and Portugal win or draw, then the top place will be decided by goal difference. Failing that, goals scored and the fair play method (whoever has less yellow/red cards) will be used with the drawing of lots the final alternative. If both Spain and Portugal lose, the same methods would be used to determine who finishes second behind Iran.

As for Group H, the equation became clearer as Poland were eliminated following their loss to Colombia last night. Japan's passage is secure if they beat Poland and Senegal can go through with a draw against Colombia. Colombia must beat Senegal to go through. A defeat would eliminate them while a draw would mean that they would need Japan to lose to Poland.

In the case of qualified teams, France, who are already through from Group D, will face Denmark in a match where the winner will take top spot. However if Denmark lose, a win for Australia against Peru would see the Socceroos take second at the Danes' expense.

The most crucial place-deciding match will be between England and Belgium in Group G. Both teams are dead even, having scored eight goals and conceded two from two games. The winner will again get top spot, but a draw would see England finish top with a better fair play record, barring some misconduct in their last game.

There will be an equally important match between Russia and Uruguay today in Group A. A draw would see Russia remain first due to their superior goal difference, but a loss would mean that Uruguay usurp them at the top.