Trend suggests ‘weaker’ BJP rule in India
India's ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance today faced a stiff challenge from the opposition INDIA bloc as counting of votes progressed in all the 543 Lok Sabha elections.
However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance was winning most seats in early vote counting trends, but well short of the landslide predicted in exit polls, TV channels showed.
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The trends spooked financial markets which had expected a hefty win for Modi, with stocks falling steeply. The blue-chip NIFTY 50.NSEIwas down 5.5% and the S&P BSE Sensex .BSESN was down 5.3% at 0800 GMT.
The rupee also fell sharply against the dollar and benchmark bond yields were up.
The markets had soared on Monday after exit polls on June 1 projected Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would register a big victory, and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was seen getting a two-thirds majority and more.
At 3:00pm, NDTV showed the NDA was ahead in 288 of the 543 elective seats in parliament, where 272 is a simple majority. The opposition INDIA alliance led by Rahul Gandhi's centrist Congress party led in over 235 seats. Other parties were leading in 19 seats.
BJP alone was ahead in 237 seats at noon. Congress on its own led in 97 seats. Other parties were leading in 55 seats.
The Hindu showed the NDA was ahead in 286 seats while the INDIA alliance led in 196 seats.
At 4:15pm (BDT), the final results of 6 seats were announced by the Indian Election Commission where NDA won 4 seats and INDIA won 2.
In the previous national poll, Congress had bagged 52 seats, its worst performance in Lok Sabha elections. The BJP alone won 303 seats in 2019.
BJP appeared to suffer big losses in the electorally most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh where the Samajwadi party (35 seats) and its ally Congress (six seats) led in 42 of the total of 80 seats and BJP in 35.
The Hindu reported that, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP was trailing in 30 percent of the seats it won in 2019.
In West Bengal, the ruling TMC led in 25 of the 42 constituencies and the BJP in 10.
A third Modi term with a slim majority for BJP - or having to depend on NDA allies for a majority - could introduce some uncertainty into governance as Modi has ruled with an authoritative hold over the government in the last decade.
However, politicians and analysts said it was too early to get a firm idea of the voting trends since a majority of ballots were yet to be counted.
"It's a fair assessment to say 400 at the moment certainly looks distant," BJP spokesperson Nalin Kohli told the India Today TV channel, referring to some projections that gave 400 seats to the NDA.
"But we need to wait...to have a final picture of the seats because the exit polls speak of a massive sweep, (and) the counting trends currently don't seem to match that," he said.
"The BJP-NDA will form the government, that trend is very clear from the start," he added.
TV exit polls broadcast after voting ended on June 1 projected a big win for Modi, but exit polls have often got election outcomes wrong in India. Nearly one billion people were registered to vote, of which 642 million turned out.
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