As the Arakan Army is on the verge of expelling the Myanmar military in the Rakhine State, Bangladesh needs to expand the scope of its engagement with the rebel group, said the International Crisis Group (ICG) yesterday.

"After restarting its fight for Rakhine State in late 2023, the Arakan Army is in the process of carving out a proto-state of over a million people on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border," said the Brussels-based global think tank in a report.

Although the Myanmar military has countered with indiscriminate attacks and a blockade that is causing huge economic distress, the AA has pushed on, reaching northern townships where it is alleged to have attacked Muslim Rohingya civilians, it added.

Formed in the borderlands of China, the AA is responsible for some of the military junta's most decisive battleground losses over the past year.

The victories are rallying other ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy fighters to dislodge the military regime, which took control of the country by a coup against the National League of Democracy in February 2021.

The NLD leaders formed the National Unity Government (NUG) with the armed group Peoples' Democratic Force (PDF). Along with dozens of other ethnic armed groups, they have been fighting the military and now control large swathes of Myanmar.

Bangladesh's relationship with Myanmar remains sore because of the Rohingyas who fled to Bangladesh in the 1970s, with the largest one being in 2017. Currently, Bangladesh shelters more than a million Rohingya.

Rohingya repatriation to Myanmar and improving trade with the neighbouring country and the other ASEAN countries are the major objectives of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh has been maintaining relations with the Myanmar junta since it assumed power for Rohingya repatriation.

The emergence of a de facto statelet on its border that aspires for permanent autonomy will require Bangladesh's interim government to expand the scope of its engagement with the AA, the ICG said.

Despite the challenges Bangladesh faces domestically, it also has a key role in Rakhine State as do other outside actors, it said.

"While strengthening ties with the group, Bangladeshi envoys should emphasise the importance of treating the Rohingya humanely and with dignity," the report said.

To stabilise the borderlands and address drivers of irregular migration, Dhaka should also allow for more humanitarian aid to the area and trade across the frontier.

"Finally, Dhaka should improve security in the refugee camps, reduce the influence of armed groups there and allow a genuine Rohingya civil society movement to emerge."

The ICG said the other foreign governments should explore how they can work with the AA and neighbouring states to improve humanitarian access and expand assistance for all ethnic communities affected by conflict in central and northern Rakhine State.

For neighbouring states and other outside actors, the emerging situation in Rakhine State creates quandaries, not least the question of how to work with a de facto authority like the AA amid an international system that for legal and practical reasons privileges relationships with nation-states.

Despite the dilemmas, the ICG said neighbours and donors will likely find that the greatest potential for positive humanitarian and security impact by working with Rakhine State's de facto administrators toward mutual goals.

The AA forces have been accused of serious human rights abuses against the Rohingya, including the attack on August 5, for which the group denies responsibility.

Rakhine State requires leaders of both the Rakhine and Rohingya communities to rise above their historical animosity and defuse communal tensions.

"The AA should incorporate more Rohingya into its administration and commit to supporting an independent investigation into allegations of abuses against civilians, which should begin as soon as practicable."