Ivy now in a new battle

Selina Hayat Ivy won the initial battle in her own house-Awami League. She obtained party ticket in the Naryanganj City Corporation election by defeating Shamim Osman, local AL leader and infamous for many controversies in Narayanganj power politics.

Shamim Osman had been successfully manipulated local unit of AL not to include Ivy's name in the three-member panel. The three AL leaders who were included in the panel were pro-Shamim Osman. The panel was forwarded to the party high command to pick one from the panel.

Also READ: NCC polls - Ivy collects nomination form

But the AL parliamentary board led by Sheikh Hasina did not go by the panel. It picked Ivy who will contest the polls with the AL electoral symbol "boat".      

Ivy is likely to face BNP leader Taimur Alam Khandaker as her main rival in the battle of ballots.

Previous polls records however offer both good and bad news for Ivy.

In the high voltage battle of ballots in 2011, she defeated AL supported Shamim Osman by a margin of one lakh votes.

Also READ: Ivy's victory in NCC polls - 2011's most positive event

BNP supported candidate Taimur who announced a boycott of the polls only hours before voting commenced, garnered 7,616 votes.

With clean image, Ivy is still a popular politician in the days of criminalisation of politics. So, it is quite usual that she will expect voters to cast votes for her in the December 22 polls.

But some records may send a sense of anxiety to the Ivy supporters' camp.   

The powerful Osman family members particularly Shamim Osman may work against Ivy. Media reports suggest that the Osman family moved to field a candidate, widow of Nasima Osman, a former lawmaker of Jatiya Party, to contest the election.

Shamim's another brother Selim Osman now MP of Jatiya Party, the main opposition in parliament. The Jatiya Party is yet to announce whether it will contest the city polls. If even JP does not contest the polls, Nasim Osman's wife may contest the election. In that case, the Osman family member will work for her. Whether she can win or not, this will split AL vote bank creating an obstacle to Ivy's win.

Anti-incumbency is another reason for Ivy to be worried. She is the sitting mayor. Moreover, her party AL has been in power since January 2009. If national politics dominates the Narayanganj city polls, Ivy may face difficulty to win the battle.  

In past, voters in most cases disappointed ruling party in the free and fair elections by opting for opposition candidates.

The AL-backed mayoral candidates faced defeat to their rivals supported by BNP in Chittagong City Corporation in 2010 and Rajshahi, Khulna, Barisal, Sylhet and Gazipur City Corporation in 2013.

Even in Narayanganj City Corporation polls in 2011, the AL- backed mayoral candidate was defeated by a huge margin by another local AL leader, Ivy who was not blessed by her party.

During the BNP-led government, elections to Dhaka and Chittagong City Corporation in 1994 and polls to Chittagong City Corporation again in 2005 were largely free and fair. In those battles, the BNP-backed mayoral candidates faced humiliating defeat to their opponents supported by the then opposition AL.

The same things happened in previous parliamentary elections. No ruling party was able to return to power in a free and fair election after ending the tenure of its government.  

In such a prevailing situation, Ivy's fight seems to have appeared as difficult more than it was in 2011. So, it's a new test for Ivy. She is now in a new battle of ballots. Yet, her supporters may feel boost up remembering that anti-incumbency did not prevent Ivy's win in 2011 polls. She was last mayor of Narayanganj municipality until it was upgraded as city corporation.   

For the government and AL, the Naryanganj city election is also a test of their popularity. It's also a test for the Election Commission whether it can be able to restore people's confidence in it by holding the polls in free and fair manner.

If the elections are not free and fair, the BNP's demand for strengthening the EC and for introduction of non-partisan election time government will garner some more support.