Nuclear brinkmanship over the Korean Peninsula

Possibility of war in the Korean Peninsula has always been a source of deep concern. The peninsula came to be divided along the 38th parallel after the uneasy armistice of 1953, following the bloody Korean War (1950-53). Since no peace treaty was signed between the two Koreas, a state of war, technically, still exists.

The confrontation between US and North Korea (DPRK) began when Pyongyang started its nuclear programme and withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003. The same year, six-party talks began involving DPRK, South Korea (ROK), USA, China, Japan and Russia. But after six rounds, the talks were discontinued in 2009 as no progress was being made.

Tension between the United States and North Korea grew out of Washington's conviction that North Korea's nuclear programme and missile technology is a direct threat to its security. The other worry for Washington comes from DPRK's secret sale of nuclear weapons technology to rogue states, terrorist organisations and even launching an attack on US troops stationed in South Korea. To make matters worse, Pyongyang has repeatedly threatened to attack mainland America with its intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.

Tensions rose further in October 9, 2006 when DPRK tested its first nuclear weapon. That changed the whole security dynamics in the peninsula and led to an arms race, with America deploying advanced missiles and weapons systems in South Korea. So far, North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests — each being bigger than the previous ones.

North Korea currently feels threatened by the successive ROK-US military exercises — "Key Resolve", "Foal Eagle", "Max Thunder" — which began in March. Besides, South Korea is in the thick of political instability following president Park Geun-Hye's impeachment. Kim Jong-un fears that America may be conspiring towards a regime change in Pyongyang as well.

On April 15, Pyongyang commemorated the "Day of the Sun" — the 105th birthday of DPRK's founding father Kim Il-sung — amid a massive military parade, and threatened to test another nuclear device. That was a direct challenge to US President Donald Trump.

While tensions spiked between DPRK and US, Trump wasted no time to embark on a flamboyant showmanship. First, the US navy in the Mediterranean Sea launched a missile attack on Syria on April 7. Then on April 14, the US army dropped the 11-ton "Massive Ordnance Air Blast" (MOAB) non-nuclear bomb on Afghanistan to destroy ISIS militant hideouts. Clearly, Trump was telling the world that he was determined to take military action against wrong-doers (?).

The attack on Syria took place while Chinese President Xi Jinping was in Florida to meet Trump on April 6. Trump asked President Xi to reign in DPRK and threatened that if China did not restrain DPRK, then "US will act alone". He then ordered warships to proceed towards the Korean peninsula.

Amid increased tensions and heated rhetoric, US Vice President Mike Pence was dispatched on April 16 on a 10-day trip to Seoul and Tokyo. Pence reassured both Seoul and Tokyo that US resolve to defend its allies was unshakable. Pence also declared that the era of "strategic patience" was over and that Washington was going to "redouble its diplomatic and economic pressures" on North Korea. He, however, did not rule out military options as a solution to the nuclear threat coming from North Korea.

Chinese Foreign Minister warned "war could break out at any moment" and "there would be no winners" if it did. Moscow is also watching the developments with deep concern. Both Beijing and Kremlin had warned Washington not to use military force on DPRK. Both have put their military on alert and moved them towards DPRK borders.

China is the closest ally of North Korea and is under tremendous pressure from America to find a "peaceful solution" to the current confrontation. But China has its own interests to protect. Though China and DPRK are close allies, relations between the two are not the best. Beijing can only apply limited pressure on Pyongyang. China can probably defuse the tension by helping to restart the 6-party negotiations.

If hostilities do break out, China will definitely step in — not to save Kim Jong-un but to save North Korea, which is ensconced under its belly. North Korea is a buffer between the Chinese military and the American garrisons in South Korea. China certainly does not want a reunified Korea led by Seoul and its border moved up to the Yalu River. Besides, war will lead to hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees crossing into China.

The UN Security Council in a statement has already condemned DPRK for the missile test on April 16 and threatened that fresh nuclear tests would be met with severe sanctions. It is perplexing that America and Russia are at odds at the UN Security Council over a new resolution on DPRK.

If US pre-emptively strike DPRK, it will definitely suck in China, South Korea, Russia, Japan, and others into a devastating war. Already the threat of war has had a dampening effect on the stock markets around the region.

Donald Trump wants, as did his predecessors, a complete freeze on North Korea's nuclear and missile programmes. On the other hand, North Korea wants to be treated as a nuclear armed power, retain its nuclear arsenal, have all economic sanctions against it removed and normalised international relations. Can these intractable positions be reconciled diplomatically? It would be difficult, but it is possible.

Donald Trump is now surrounded by a new crop of Neo-cons. And 'uninitiated' as he is in world affairs, a small miscalculation can indeed lead to a nuclear conflagration engulfing the entire region. It is a matter of great concern for the whole world that both these eccentric leaders are engaged in such dangerous brinkmanship.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.