Hearing the ruling party's general secretary say that the BNP's October 28 rally in the capital would face a similar reaction as did the one on December 10 last year, we can now gauge what the intention of the government is. Perhaps, many of us have already started adjusting our diaries, out of fear of violence or to avoid harassment in the name of heightened security. The possibility of another unannounced shutdown (better to be called a hartal enforced by the supporters of the ruling party) may also encourage them to leave Dhaka simply to avoid any additional suffering.

The warning given to BNP by Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader for its expressed intent is undoubtedly worrying and deplorable. On the other hand, it is also an admission that the government did crack down on the opposition on December 7, 2022, for which they had so far put the blame on BNP's alleged subversive activities.

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Do Bangladeshis want democracy?

Many questions still remain unanswered as to why the government was so desperate to deter BNP from holding a mass rally in front of the latter's central office, to the extent that police had to storm the party office in Nayapaltan, clear the whole area, and term it a no-go zone for about a week. Can anyone forget that a simple dispute over a venue had caused so much trouble not even a year ago?

There's little doubt that the government's refusal to participate in open talks with the opposition – and find a way of holding a credible election according to international standards – is prolonging BNP's agitation. To make things worse, the ruling party's counter programmes, aimed at keeping a hold on the streets, have already caused trouble across the country as AL members have interpreted this as a directive to deny the opposition any space for holding protests.

In the end, the authorities did allow BNP to hold its grand rally on the day, only a few kilometres away. But in the meantime, one person had to die, tens of people were injured, and a couple of the opposition's top leaders were imprisoned. It was then reported that police had fired at least 1,780 rounds of rubber bullets, tear gas canisters, and sound grenades during the clash. Instead of a supposedly day-long disruption to normal city life, it became such a prolonged nightmare for citizens that the restriction of their movement did not stop at random frisking/checking of people and vehicles, but also infringed their rights to privacy by way of law enforcers going through the contents of citizens' personal mobile phones.

The violent suppression of the opposition's protest also alarmed the international community. Expressing concerns over reports of intimidation, political violence, harassment by police, arrests of opposition party members, and restrictions on the ability of opposition parties to meet and hold peaceful rallies, the United States called for guaranteeing the right to peaceful assembly and refraining from using excessive force against protesters. The UN and a number of rights groups also joined voices in support of allowing peaceful protests.

Early indications, such as suing and detaining opposition activists on charges of alleged "subversion," suggest that the threat of the December 10 situation being repeated should not be taken lightly. Despite the fact that the nature of our politics is historically confrontational, the current round of protests spearheaded by BNP is reasonably peaceful. But the vocabulary used by leaders of the ruling party, and by Obaidul Quader in particular, seem to be aimed at fuelling anger and escalating tension. Human Rights Watch has already called it, saying "threats against opposition leaders undermine election integrity." Quader's earlier warnings include a threat of "pouring uranium" on the head of BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and not allowing him to return to Dhaka.

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The legal case against Khaleda’s treatment abroad is far from convincing

Many observers have hoped that the ruling party will change its strategy and strive to improve the political climate ahead of the election, since the government has been seen trying to convince the international community that it will deliver a free and fair election. Despite this pledge, the international community is far from convinced due to the controversies surrounding the elections in 2014 and 2018. The current Election Commission, too, has admitted that it's been a victim of the fallout of those sham elections. Given this context, the US announced a visa policy regarding "individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh."

There's little doubt that the government's refusal to participate in open talks with the opposition – and find a way of holding a credible election according to international standards – is prolonging BNP's agitation. To make things worse, the ruling party's counter programmes, aimed at keeping a hold on the streets, have already caused trouble across the country as AL members have interpreted this as a directive to deny the opposition any space for holding protests.

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Why is the EU pulling out of observing our election?

It is quite perplexing why the government seems set to repeat the measures that led to horrifying consequences between December 7 and 11 in 2022. No one wants to see the SWAT being deployed in battle gear to tackle a political protest. If a political party wants to stage a sit-in protest, why should they be denied that right? Didn't the Awami League itself stage such protests many years ago, and in order to demand the introduction of a caretaker government system, no less?

In any case, resolving differences over election management, instead of suppressing protest, would also be in the best interests of the country's economy. The US visa policy, undeniably, has unnerved our business community the most as they can ill afford any penalty imposed on the economy, which has already been experiencing its devastating shocks.

Kamal Ahmed is an independent journalist. His X handle is @ahmedka1

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

With the national election still two weeks away, many national and international observers have already termed it as a farce or "staged election", and it is easy to see why. One of the key features of any election is the ability of voters to select the winner. If voters are not presented with any real options to choose from, then arguably the most important purpose of an election is defeated. That is why we saw the ruling party scrambling to field dummy candidates or bargaining with the Jatiya Party to make up for the absence of the BNP and other like-minded parties, thus giving the election some sort of legitimacy.

Let us not forget that the idea of fielding dummy candidates this time—we have, of course, heard about it in previous elections also—came from the very top of the Awami League. So, if the ruling party itself is offering voters the option to choose from either a candidate of the Awami League or a dummy, what real options do voters have? And what message are they to receive from the ones conducting this election—namely, the Election Commission—who, knowing this, is still going ahead with the election? Are people to believe that the EC is conducting it in the interest of voters? Of course not.

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Why do other parties need AL’s concessions to win election?

The EC asking the home ministry to take steps to prevent political rallies and processions of all kinds, except for electoral campaigns, from December 18 till polling day, also makes it complicit in suppressing protests against what a number of opposition parties see as being a farcical election. Interestingly, earlier on that same day, the Awami League's general secretary urged the commission and law enforcement agencies to take a strong stance against forces that the ruling party saw were against the elections—mainly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Such a step to stop political rallies and programmes, it can be argued, is unconstitutional, as it denies political parties in the opposition camp the right to assembly, the right to protest, the right to movement and the right to free expression.

As concerning as the use of such a tactic may be, it hasn't been the only one used to set up what seems to be a staged and one-sided election. Last month, The Guardian reported how Bangladesh saw "full prisons and false charges" due to the crackdown on the opposition. Following such "a ruthless crackdown on the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party" in the run-up to the elections, it noted how few "believe the election will be free, fair or remotely democratic." This strategy, according to The New York Times, is leading to "Bangladesh's multiparty democracy…being methodically strangled in crowded courtrooms."

The expediated trials leading to the convictions of hundreds of opposition leaders and activists further validate such apprehensions. For example, on December 11, at least 42 BNP members and those of its infamous allies—Jamaat-e-Islami—were convicted in four cases. Between August-December, 961 opposition leaders and activists were reportedly sentenced to imprisonment in 62 cases in Dhaka. What makes these especially controversial is that convictions were apparently made without considering any independent witnesses or only with police deposition, and defence lawyers further alleged that less than half of the prosecution witnesses were heard. Furthermore, it must be noted that such speedy disposal of cases is unusual in a country where justice delivery has become particularly slow. This fact, and our previous history of witnessing politically motivated cases right before elections, indicate that opposition leaders are again being targeted and kept out of the electoral fray.

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Of the AL, for the AL, and by the AL

In that regard, the recent comments made by Awami League presidium member and agriculture minister Abdur Razzaque, that jailed BNP men were offered freedom if the party agreed to contest the polls, is telling. Although AL later tried to play it down and its general secretary said it was Razzaque's personal opinion, it lends further credence to the public perception that all these arrests and convictions are being made in trumped up cases for political reasons. Additionally, it raises two very important questions: 1) If we are currently in a situation where the ruling party can decide to arrest and release thousands of opposition leaders and activists, is it really conducive for a free and fair election? And 2) what has happened to the independence of the legal system?

Such an admission and the underlying state of affairs—for example, since 2009, 1,37,569 cases have been filed against 49,80,826 BNP leaders and activists—show that the Awami League is bent on ensuring its grip over power by using the full might of the state machinery. What is missing in all of this is the role of the citizens, who have all but lost their right to vote. As a result, government officials across the board are no longer accountable to the people and so, the people no longer have any say in how the state is being run, nor how the elections should be conducted. So, even though it's been the opposition that has mainly been on the receiving end of the government's high-handedness and the ruling party's vitriol, ultimately, it will be the general people who are likely to be the biggest losers of the elections.

Eresh Omar Jamal is a journalist at The Daily Star. His X handle is @EreshOmarJamal

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.