It will be a year of challenges, it will be a year of strife. It could also be a year of possibilities. It could be a year of change, too.

The year 2023 will be significant for Bangladesh's politics and economy. Election years typically feature greater strife between the two major opposing political camps. This year, however, that only seems to be further complicated, and so is the uncertainty over our collective fate.

Things were going fairly smooth for the ruling Awami League until the middle of 2022. The opposition, BNP, was still struggling to even gather enough resolve to be on the streets, and many had by then dismissed them as paper tigers.

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Will pre-election politics remain peaceful or become violent?

The price hike of fuel and daily essentials, and severe load-shedding, put the ruling party in an awkward situation, which was only compounded by the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war and corruption allegations against AL members.

BNP exploited that ripe opportunity quite well – taking advantage of the overall public dissatisfaction towards the government – and took to the streets. Two of its leaders were killed but instead of having their spirits dampened, the BNP became desperate.

The main opposition camp then held its divisional rallies, one after another, defying all odds and obstacles. It was a challenge for the BNP to prove its strength. And to everyone's surprise, the party surpassed all expectations with spectacular turnouts. The more aggressive the ruling party was in trying to quell the BNP's campaign, the more desperate BNP became to show up in numbers on the streets.

The situation was such that the AL had to come up with counter programmes, although the government higher-ups had said previously that they would allow the BNP to take to the streets. The government went on to arrest a number of BNP's senior leaders and denied them bail several times. This included the party's secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, who finally gained bail on Tuesday for six months.

To be fair, the government had initially granted some space to the BNP. But this was, at least in part, due to international pressure.

In December 2021, the US imposed sanctions on Rab and seven of its officers. Though the government seemed to not care much about this, its image before the international community was tarnished. It was evident from the way AL leaders, including ministers, talked about diplomats stationed in Dhaka that the government was under some pressure regarding the state of democracy and human rights in Bangladesh.

Diplomats have repeatedly said that, in order for the next general election to be accepted internationally, the opposition parties must be allowed to hold meetings. The government duly allowed the BNP to do so, but not without repression.

As the election is just a year away, last year's heat will spill over into 2023 and will continue till the election. Centring around the polls, the ruling Awami League has already commenced its election campaign as PM Sheikh Hasina started seeking votes publicly. The party also completed its 22nd national council, where it indicated that their next election manifesto would be "Smart Bangladesh." The AL has remained in office for three consecutive terms and is desperate to stay on. And thus, the constitution, which allows for the ruling party to hold elections, will be their main tool.

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Is BNP truly aiming for state reform with its 27 points?

On the other hand, the BNP knows very well what would happen if they joined the polls under the incumbent government. Their experience in joining the polls under the AL has not been good, given the outcome of the last two elections, both of which were riddled with allegations and complaints of irregularities. So, they want the next national election to be held under an election-time neutral government. But chances are very slim that the ruling Awami League government will accept this demand. Meanwhile, the BNP has placed a 10-point demand, including demanding the resignation of the government.

To make their demands clearer, the party's lawmakers have resigned from the parliament. Through this resignation, the BNP wanted to convey that they will not join the polls unless their demands are met. They are ready to boycott the election again, although some in the party still rue their previous decision to boycott the 2014 election.

Apart from this, the BNP has also started waging simultaneous campaigns with like-minded political parties – although many exist in name only – to mount pressure on the government. As part of the simultaneous movement, the party unofficially dissolved its 20-party alliance in an attempt to bring left-wing parties under a single platform.

By the end of 2022, some leftist parties were also supporting BNP's demand for conducting the election under a non-partisan interim government. It seems that all the opposition forces are uniting against the ruling AL.

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Can AL rely on its old guard to counter new challenges?

The position of the Jatiya Party, however, is not clear, and the party itself is highly unpredictable. It can do anything at any moment. After the death of its founder, HM Ershad, the party's top leadership remains divided between Ershad's brother, GM Quader, and Ershad's wife, Rawshan Ershad. Rawshan emerged from hospital after a long absence, while party chairman Quader was making the rounds of court to regain authority. In the meantime, the AL has been drawing up various strategies to keep the JP under its control.

Political leaders also engaged in a battle of words throughout 2022. But what the people had expected – a mutual understanding between the major political parties – remained far from reach. There seems to be no possibility of holding any talks between the AL and BNP. So, in the absence of talks, there is only confrontation.

Although the year ended with a sigh of relief that nothing too consequential had happened centring BNP's December 10, 2022 rally in Dhaka, the government had been tough on the opposition party.

The year 2023 started with uncertainty, which may further deepen in the coming days as AL and BNP seem to increasingly believe they are not just political opponents, but rather enemies. So, chances of reaching a consensus are almost nil.

While the Awami League is resolute on holding the general election, the BNP is desperate to force it to resign from office.

The stalemate can only mean imminent confrontation. And to avoid that, both parties must come to a consensus. Otherwise, there are bound to be clashes and instability. Lives and livelihoods will be lost. And it will be the AL and the BNP who will have blood on their hands.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is deputy chief reporter at The Daily Star.

Two assassination attempts against Donald Trump, bomb threats impacting a town's immigrant community, and a fringe party urging Kamala Harris's murder. The United States' coarsening political discourse has led to mounting menace and actual violence.

In a neck-and-neck US presidential election, tensions have soared along with the rhetoric: people have been killed, and the country's presidential candidates and others are in the crosshairs of extremists swept up in the divisive language of the race.

Sunday's attempt on Trump's life, the second in two months, was foiled, and few details have been released about the suspect's motive.

Barely 20 hours after Secret Service agents discovered and chased the would-be shooter away from the former president's Florida golf club, Trump was telling Fox News Digital on Monday that the rhetoric of Harris and the Biden administration "is causing me to be shot at."

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Apparent assassination attempt on Trump: Five things to know

"Because of this Communist Left Rhetoric, the bullets are flying, and it will only get worse!" Trump added on his Truth Social platform.

US lawmakers and analysts have been voicing concern since the 2021 US Capitol insurrection that increasingly bellicose campaign language was becoming a worrying contusion on the body politic ahead of November's presidential election.

Democrats have accused Trump of creating a climate of raw political fear, with President Joe Biden himself warning of the risk of "chaos," particularly with Trump's repeated refusal to commit to recognizing the results of the upcoming election.

'Break her kneecaps' 

Discourse that was once taboo is now commonplace on the far-right, with hardline Republicans in Congress incorporating violent language and imagery into stump speeches.

Many -- including some Republicans -- argue Trump incited the deadly US Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, when he continuously and falsely claimed he won the poll against Biden and exhorted his followers to "fight like hell."

Now, fears have swelled that a second, better-armed and -organized version of January 6 could be on the horizon should Trump lose to Harris in November.

The country's political divisions came into sharp focus with Trump's 2017-2021 presidency, notably with a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville and the 2020 murder of George Floyd and subsequent protests.

Lawmakers and members of the judiciary have increasingly been the subjects of death threats, prompting some officials to reportedly beef up their security.

By 2022, boundaries of political discourse had eroded to such a degree that Republican Senator Susan Collins warned she "wouldn't be surprised" if a US lawmaker were killed.

Two weeks later, then-House speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband was attacked with a hammer by a far-right conspiracy theorist who wanted to hold the Democratic leader hostage and "break her kneecaps."

Calls for violence

On Sunday, even as many expressed revulsion at the latest apparent plot against Trump, Elon Musk, the world's richest man, took to his X platform to offer an incendiary take.

"And no one is even trying to assassinate Biden/Kamala," he wrote, with a "thinking face" emoji attached. He later removed the post.

The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire inexplicably went further, posting Sunday on X that anyone who assassinates Harris would be "an American hero." Law enforcement reportedly said it was investigating.

Since becoming a candidate for another White House term, Trump has been repeatedly singled out for his comments targeting immigrants.

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Trump safe after new assassination attempt, suspect named by media

Recently he has doubled down, blaming them for "poisoning" the country and said "they're eating the pets" in Springfield, Ohio, triggering a climate of fear among the city's Haitian migrants.

But while political violence is "alarming," it is not new and "has been part of the US since the nation's founding," Professor Peter Loge of George Washington University told AFP.

He listed a series of "riots, assassinations and assassination attempts" targeting leaders from Abraham Lincoln to Ronald Reagan.

Many experts agree, however, that such violence flared with the arrival of Trump, who himself has "repeatedly endorsed violence," Loge was quick to point out.

Biden, the outgoing president, stressed Monday there is "zero" place for political violence in the country.

"In America we resolve our differences peacefully at the ballot box, not at the end of a gun," he told a university conference.

Still, citizens are bracing for more. According to an Ipsos poll published in May, 68 percent of Americans fear further violence after November's election.

Late, late yestreen, I saw the new Moon,

With the old Moon in her arms;

And I fear, I fear, my Master dear!

We shall have a deadly storm.

—Ballad of Sir Patrick Spence

The new year is always full of new promises, like the new moon. But as this old ballad suggests, the new cannot ignore the shadow of the old. The juxtaposition of the two, especially when some old issues remain unresolved and are kept in the fold, can result in a storm. The singer, who is an avid reader of nature, reads the signs of nature to warn his master. Poets, writers and artists use their insights to delve into facts that are often in common sight but willingly or unwillingly overlooked. They make connections between dots.

Our new year started with news of some pre-election violence. At a time when hartals and blockades, the main political weapons of the opposition parties, were becoming comedic and farcical, we had the return of arson. Buses, cars, and trains were set on fire to remind us of the tragedies of 2015. There was a large-scale fear of the return of violence as we headed towards the election and the exercise of power. Awami League, in its manifesto, stated a clear message of boosting employment against the backdrop of its visible development. The cabinet with a new look has just been sworn in to deliver a smart Bangladesh. I think the smart thing to do is to create a system in which we do not have to rely on everyday items and basic facilities from others. We do not need a system that allows the price of onions or rice to soar the moment the supply chain is disturbed. We do not want a system that allows billions of hard-earned currencies to be stolen or sent abroad. We do not want to see a system that forces people to go to neighbouring countries for quality education or health services. With so much international focus on our governance, it is important that we create a smart country that puts our citizens first. We listen to them and remain champions of their desires and voices. We remain sympathetic to their worries and woes.

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From one party to one person: What was de facto is now de jure

On Friday morning, I woke up to the news of a female banker who died of a concrete block that fell on her in the Siddheswari area in the city. Was it a divine punishment for a mother walking home to her child who was waiting for her? The accident could happen because some powerful contractors decided to continue with their development projects without any safety measures in place. I am still trying to process the news of the death of a five-year-old boy following a circumcision procedure that was conducted under general anaesthesia. The hospital kept the boy in the ICU for days and had the audacity to hand the grieving parents a hefty bill of Tk 6.6 lakh. Instead of being apologetic or explaining the accident, the hospital could show such inhumane attitudes because they are either connected to or have the resources to be plugged into the source of power. These incidents are symptomatic of a system where power corrodes. Unless we address the old shadow of the moon, there are bound to be storms.

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All the King’s Men

The image of a burning train with a man stuck in the window refuses to go away, irrespective of the flurry of electoral and post-electoral feats and defeats. The train was engulfed in an inferno. And the shadowy, charred figure looked like a damned soul, painted by some Renaissance artist. The train, coming from Kolkata, added another layer to the metaphor. It brought back memories of riots that we have read about in Partition literature; Khushwant Singh's Train to Pakistan is a memorable instance. The victim, we learnt from witnesses, was travelling with his wife and little daughter. Once he realised that his family members were already dead from the quick spread of flames, he refused to be saved. At least four people died in that incident, for no reason of their own. I hope those who set fire to the train could sleep well at night. They don't need to if they are already damned in hell and hellbent on turning the lives of others into hell. Who brought fire to him is anybody's guess! Arson and sabotage are shrewd rhetoric lost in the maze of semantics.

There are signs all around us. And we see what we want to see. We hear what we want to hear. The family man who died on that train is not the last of humanity to burn alive. There are thousands of others routinely being killed in Gaza, Ukraine, Myanmar, Syria, and others. I look at the photo of the burning father and quote Christopher Marlowe's 

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Living with fear and searching for hope

Doctor Faustus unconsciously, murmuring, "Why this is hell, nor am I out of it!" This was the shrewd answer by the Devil's assistant, Mephistopheles, who came to convince Doctor Faustus to enter a pact with his boss, promising omnipotence for 24 years in exchange for the eternal damnation of his soul. Faustus wanted to understand the implications of the deed that he was about to sign. Mephistopheles's response downplayed the severity of hell by comparing it to our everyday existence.

Doctor Faustus's initial motivations were noble, driven by a desire not only to expand his knowledge but also to uplift the condition of his impoverished country. He cut his arm to use blood ink to sign the document, as instructed. But the blood congealed, and a divine sign got scripted. It read, "Homo fuge!"—literally meaning, "Fly, man, fly!" But there was no flight for Faustus, as he was drawn to the fire like a moth. He took the idea of flight as his means to fly away from the stale scholarship of Wittenberg to become a Renaissance man who would bring progress and development to his country. By the time he realised it, it was a bit too late. And the soul collector came to snatch his claim.

Sometimes, our lust for power brings hell to earth. We let the fire burn and kill humanity. From the ashes of memory, new stories emerge. After all, to live is to be human.

Dr Shamsad Mortuza is professor of English at Dhaka University.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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The government will allow BNP to hold programmes like rallies and processions but won't permit blockades or sit-ins that might lead to violence.

It is also thinking about imposing a ban on political programmes on weekdays, citing public sufferings.

Police sources said they learnt a lesson on Saturday and would be more alert in tackling political programmes in the coming days. The law enforcers will increase the deployment of forces and monitoring by intelligence agencies centring political programmes in future.

They will also conduct special drives to apprehend "troublemakers" and will not allow any illegal gathering on the streets, said officials, adding that there will be checkpoints in every key area of the capital.

Following clashes between police and BNP activists in the capital on Saturday, Awami League has decided to keep a tight grip on the streets and hold programmes regularly.

It, however, will not declare programmes to counter the BNP like it has been doing since December.

Party sources said AL will keep its activists ready to resist any BNP attempts to deteriorate law and order.

Speaking at a programme at Shilpakala Academy, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal said law enforcers will not stand idle if anyone causes trouble in the name of agitation or assembly.

There is no problem with peaceful political programmes, but police will not allow blocking of roads, he added.

"We will allow BNP to conduct its peaceful political programme. But we will resist them if they want to create an anarchic situation and get involved in violence," AL Joint General Secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim told The Daily Star.

He said, "We will take action according to the situation. If the BNP holds peaceful programmes, we will go slow. But if the BNP wants an unwanted situation to resist the election, it will be dealt with an iron fist."

He said AL will hold programmes like discussions, rallies, publicising of the government's achievements, mass contact, and run election campaigns regularly until the election.

According to party sources, AL in August will hold discussions and rallies in which it will describe the BNP-led four-party government's misrule.

In September, it will focus fully on campaigning.

Ruling party leaders think BNP's Saturday's programme is nothing but the party returning to the arson attacks it carried out in 2013-14.

"Like in the past, all terrorist activities and anarchies by BNP will be dealt with an iron fist," AL Joint General Secretary Mahbubul Alam Hanif told The Daily Star.

He said BNP on Saturday hinted that it was taking the same path it took in 2013 and 2014. "But they will not be allowed to do it again," he said.

Sheikh Bazlur Rahman, president of Dhaka city unit (north) AL, told this paper that his unit will hold several programmes until the election.

In a recent programme, DMP Commissioner Khandaker Golam Faruq said they may be compelled to impose a ban on political programmes if those result in public sufferings.

Asked about imposing any restrictions on the political programmes during weekdays, Faruq told The Daily Star yesterday, "We are discussing how to handle the programmes."

Harun Or Rashid, additional commissioner (detective branch) of Dhaka Metropolitan Police, said they would increase deployment and intelligence surveillance to avert any unwanted situation.

There is currently a huge Awami League-shaped hole in Bangladesh's electoral politics, so BNP trying to dive headlong into it comes as no surprise. Since Sheikh Hasina's fall on August 5, BNP has had to navigate a delicate tightrope—balancing its ambition to return to power with the pressure to support popular demands for state reforms. The party doesn't want to risk the ire of the very students that ousted its arch-rival, potentially putting it in pole position to win the next election. But reforms take time, something it doesn't have plenty of after nearly two decades of wait. And the grassroots are getting impatient.

"Impatient" is perhaps an understatement for what has unfolded over the past month and a half. A more fitting description would be a chaotic transformation of a party getting used to having things its way. As BNP-affiliated leaders, activists, and professional groups scramble to fill the void left by Awami League, we are getting an early preview of the making of another regime—and it's nothing short of disturbing.

For example, since August 5, at least 14 BNP members have lost their lives, eight of them in factional clashes. The most recent murder occurred on Friday in Chattogram's Changaon area, where a Jatiyatabadi Jubo Dal activist was fatally stabbed during a clash between rival factions. On the same day, heavy clashes between two BNP-linked groups in Chandpur left at least 30 people injured. On Sunday, a similar clash in Narayanganj left at least 12 injured, followed by another in Kushtia two days later, injuring 10 more. These violent power struggles, often revolving around the control of extortion rackets, have become disturbingly common. In that, the BNP grassroots seem to be re-enacting scenes from Awami League's time in power which, too, was plagued by factional infighting, with over 150 of its leaders and activists killed in mostly turf wars since the 2018 election.

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What politics for the new generation should look like

Over the past weeks, reports have also emerged of BNP leaders and activists taking over slums, footpaths, transport hubs, extortion rackets across various markets and informal businesses, and even former Awami League offices. Meanwhile, in the civil service, there have been allegations against BNP-affiliated groups trying to influence promotions, placements, public contracts, etc.

Officially, the party is against such practices. Tarique Rahman, the acting chairman, recently warned that BNP will not tolerate any reckless actions by "misguided" individuals that could harm "the trust and love" it has earned through "years of struggle, sacrifice, and perseverance." He urged party members to "identify and resist" those tarnishing BNP's image, emphasising its commitment to not only expelling such individuals but also taking "legal action" against them.

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Can a Third Way politics transform Bangladesh?

These warnings coupled with occasional disciplinary measures, however, have proven insufficient to deter errant party supporters, which suggests two things: either those were not strict or convincing enough, or the party is not trying hard enough. Both scenarios are likely in an environment of patronage politics that has long been the mainstay of our political culture. This system of patronage begins at grassroots with the capture of extortion rackets or other undue benefits by political thugs, and culminates with systemic regulatory capture by vested interest groups, all of which serves as an incentive for them to keep working for a party. Barring exceptions, the prospect or promise of mutual gain largely governs the relationship between major parties and their supporters.

BNP, for all its pro-reform posturing in the aid of the interim government, has yet to demonstrate a real willingness to dismantle this corrupt system. While, to be fair, it has shown some signs of remaking itself as a party with a more open political ethos, the revolutionary times that we are living through demand much more.

Ironically, Awami League's ouster through a bloody uprising has stripped BNP of two key advantages that it could have used in an election campaign: anti-incumbency bias, and public sympathy for the repression it had endured. In an alternate reality where those factors still mattered, BNP could have expected Gen Z—with no lived memory of its 2001-06 rule—to support it unquestioningly, and older generations to accept it as the lesser of two evils. The problem is, the new generation has shown a political maturity beyond their years, and to win them over, BNP now must offer something genuinely new.

Ironically, Awami League's ouster through a bloody uprising has stripped BNP of two key advantages that it could have used in an election campaign: anti-incumbency bias, and public sympathy for the repression it had endured. In an alternate reality where those factors still mattered, BNP could have expected Gen Z—with no lived memory of its 2001-06 rule—to support it unquestioningly, and older generations to accept it as the lesser of two evils. The problem is, the new generation has shown a political maturity beyond their years, and to win them over, BNP now must offer something genuinely new.

So far, it has been giving mixed signals. On the one hand, it acknowledged that repeating Awami League's mistakes could lead to the same fate for itself, stressing the importance of understanding the shift in people's mind-sets. On the other hand, it continues to call for elections as soon as possible. Its rhetoric surrounding the student-led mass movement, trying to co-opt it as its own, and its suggestion that long-term reforms should be left to an elected government also reveal glaring contradictions. Perhaps the army chief's recent statement—in which he vowed to back the interim government "come what may" to possibly ensure elections within the next 18 months—will prompt BNP to reassess its approach. While expecting an election roadmap is not unreasonable, it must lift its sights beyond its ambition and bring the reform drive to its own doorsteps.

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Reforms needed in political parties and the electoral process in Bangladesh

At 46, BNP is in need of renewal, and the sooner it realises this, the better. As the largest party in the country now, it has a responsibility not just to its leaders and activists but to the entire political landscape. To truly demonstrate that it remains in tune with the spirit of the mass uprising, BNP needs to lead by example and undertake the following initiatives.

First, it must help dismantle the patronage system by making it clear to party leaders and supporters that BNP politics will henceforth offer no undeserved benefits, and anyone using its name for such purposes will be met with swift punishment. Second, it should ask its loyalist groups within the civil service to stop influencing decisions, or risk being blacklisted. Third, it should establish a democratic, secular, and gender-inclusive party structure, and have a high-powered committee constantly check erosion of these values in party activities. Fourth, it should bring clarity on its finances by making the names of its donors public and conducting internal audits of assets held by party leaders. Fifth, it should control its grassroots leaders and activists, preventing infighting and any criminality through strict enforcement of disciplinary measures.

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A call to end the cycle of revenge politics

Sixth, it should comply with the Representation of the People Order (RPO) clause that prohibits political parties from having affiliated student or teacher organisations. Over the years, political parties, including BNP, have bypassed this law on mere technicalities, passing their student wings off as "brotherly" or "associate" organisations, thus enabling crimes and hegemonic practices that led not only to a deep distrust of student politics but also unimaginable sufferings.

There can be many other reforms that are necessary. What BNP can do to remake itself in line with the spirit of the mass uprising can be the topic of a discussion that the party should itself encourage for its own benefit.

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The need for transparency in political financing

Just before the January 7, 2024 election, I wrote an article titled "Can BNP survive the pre-election meltdown?" amid heavy crackdowns by Awami League. I guess the question now is, can BNP fulfil the post-uprising expectations? After all, if political parties do not break free from their long-entrenched monopolistic and authoritarian attitudes, changing the constitution and implementing other state reforms cannot prevent future regimes from turning dictatorial again. BNP has a historic responsibility in this regard. 

Badiuzzaman Bay is an assistant editor at The Daily Star. 

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.