Blue-collar constituents, sympathy vote, and parochialism are likely to play a pivotal role in the city's three major constituencies, Chattogram-9, -10 and -11.

In Chittagong-11 (Port-Patenga), factory workers would be the major factor as the Chittagong Export Processing Zone (CEPZ), Karnaphuli Export Processing Zone (KEPZ), and the Chattogram Port are located there.

According to the Bangladesh Export Processing Zone Authority sources, there are about two lakh workers in CEPZ and 75,000 in KEPZ and 6,000-7,000 work in and around Chattogram Port.

Local sources said Chattogram-11 has the highest number of voters, a little over five lakh, and more than two lakh of them are factory workers.

Incumbent and Awami League-led alliance candidate MA Latif and Oikyafront candidate Amir Khashru Mahmud Chowdhury, former law maker from the constituency, are optimistic of getting the blue-collar vote.

Khashru, also a former minister, told The Daily Star, “Apart from expanding the activities of the port during our rule, we created huge job opportunities establishing the CEPZ and KEPZ.

“I was elected from this constituency four times and have done everything possible for the wellbeing of the workers. I am sure they will cast their votes again for me if they can go to the polling centres,” he added.

He claimed he could not campaign freely due to attacks by ruling party men and arrest of his leaders and activists.

Interestingly enough, MA Latif too claims he has the blue-collar votes almost in the bag. He told The Daily Star, “The workers are the main strength for me. I am sure 90 percent of more than two lakh workers will vote for me. 

“I have been providing them with essential commodities, including rice, lentil, edible oil and salt at half the price for the last 10 years … You can ask the workers what I have done for them.” he added.

Khadiza Begum, a worker at Sea Tax garments in CEPZ, said the candidate who gets support of the workers usually win in this constituency.

“We have been facing severe problems of accommodation and transportation,” she said, adding that they would vote for whoever is capable of solving the issues. 

In Chattogram-9 (Kotwali-Bakalia), public sympathy would be a factor for the AL-led alliance candidate Mohibul Hasan Hasan Nowfel, also the organising secretary of the party, and Oikyafront candidate Shahadat Hossain, also city unit president of BNP.

Both are first timers in Chattogram-9.

Nowfel is the son of late three-times Chattogram city mayor ABM Mohiuddin Chowdhury while Shahadat is in jail and has been shown arrested in at least 11 cases, which many say are false and fabricated.

“My father was a grassroots activist and loyal to the father of the nation and her daughter until his last breath. Hasina has recognised his efforts by nominating me,” said Nowfel, adding that people know that just like his father, he would be with the grassroots.

Badrul Anwar, chief election coordinator of Shahadat, said, “Our candidate has been arrested before the election to keep him out of the race. They did not even let us campaign freely. It has made the voters sympathetic towards our candidate.”

He said if the voters could go to the polling centres, Shahadat would definitely win. 

 Shama Pada Dey, a resident of Alkaran area, said being the son of the late mayor, Nowfel has been getting a lot of attention wherever he goes. But

some people also have sympathy for Shahadat.

“People with no political affiliation have not accepted the arrest of Shahadat before the election,” he added.

A few others echoed Shama while talking to The Daily Star at the bus stop in front of the General Post Office.

In Chattogram-10 (Double-mooring), localism might be the key factor. AL led alliance candidate Afsarul Amin Chowdhury on the campaign trail has been saying that Oikyafront candidate Abdullah Al Noman is an outsider.

Afsarul told The Daily Star, “My opponent is an outsider; he is not even a voter of this constituency. I have been running from this constituency since 1996. The voters here elected me twice, which paved the way for me to be a minister.”

He claimed that he had conducted massive development projects over the last 10 years and that people would recognise that.

Noman, also a former minister, termed Afsarul's comments unexpected. “I have been with the people of this constituency for a long time and have implemented many development projects, including establishment of Chittagong Veterinary and Animal Science University.”

He said people would ignore such unfair comments and vote for him if they could go to the polling centres.

Mohammed Faizullah Pappu, general secretary of the Sonali Residential Area Welfare Association in North Agrabad, said the local and outsider issue was indeed a factor in 2014 and it is a factor this time too.

A few people The Daily Star spoke to in Halishahar Housing Estate, Noyabar, and Bou Bazar, said local or outsider did not matter.

There are six constituencies in the city but Chattogram-4, -5 and -8 are made up of mostly Sitakunda, Hathazari, and Boalkhali upazilas.

The government will make all-out efforts to bring opposition BNP to the next parliamentary election, slated for late next year.

Besides, the ruling Awami League will participate in the polls with its 14-party allies, said party sources.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, also the AL chief, said this at a meeting of the AL Central Working Committee (ALCWC), the highest decision-making body of the party, at the Gono Bhaban last night.

She also said voting in all 300 parliamentary constituencies will be held using electronic voting machines (EVM), meeting sources said.

At one point, AL presidium member Shajahan Khan wanted to know whether the party and the government would take any initiative to bring the BNP to the next national polls.

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In response, Hasina said her party will take every initiative to bring the opposition party to the election, the sources added.

After boycotting the 2014 parliamentary polls, the BNP contested the last general election and also took part in elections to local government bodies with its electoral symbol "sheaf of paddy". But the party recently boycotted local government polls saying that free and fair elections are not possible under the current administration.

Photo: PID

At the meeting last night, Hasina said the next general election will be held in a free and credible manner and it would be a participatory one.

She said her government would provide all-out support to the Election Commission to hold a credible election.

The PM criticised some of her party leaders, saying those who are not confident about their win don't want BNP to take part in the national polls.

She also said conspiracies are afoot to make the next national polls controversial. Naming Dr Kamal Hossain of Gonoforum, Mahmudur Rahman Manna of Nagorik Oikya and Reza Kibria of Bangladesh Gono Odhikar Parishad, she said they can do nothing, said the sources.

The AL chief also said 14-party alliance is with her party and it will contest the next general election with the "ideological partners". She asked the party leaders to maintain good relations with the allies. 

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Hasina also suggested maintaining close relations with friendly countries who, she thinks, would be a factor in the next polls.

She asked her party leaders to prepare for the election and also for the AL's tri-annual conference and advised them to complete all district conferences within December. The tenure of the current central committee of the AL will expire that month.

Talking tough on the party's rebel candidates, the PM said those who contest local body elections against party candidates can't be contenders at the grassroots councils, said sources.

"Election will be held using EVM and it would be a participatory one. Don't think you will win the election only on the party ticket. You will have to win by dint of your popularity and merit," an AL central leader who participated in the meeting quoted Hasina as saying.

The PM's hints at all-EVM JS polls come when Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal several times said they were yet to make any decision about using EVMs in elections and they were studying the system.

Earlier in March when the newly constituted EC sat with civil society members and other professionals, eminent citizens opined that the commission should refrain from using EVMs in polls unless there is consensus regarding the use of the technology.

They also urged the EC to take steps to restore people's trust in it.

UNB reports: The PM in her introductory speech said her party always comes to power through elections, never by the backdoor.

The premier thanked the people for repeatedly voting her party to power.

"Due to this, the country witnessed massive development in the last 13 years, leading to rise in the people's living standards," she said.

The AL chief underscored the need for strengthening the party as the national election is due late next year.

She said her successive governments since 2009 gave importance to developing the rural areas.

"As a result, the infrastructure in rural areas have improved a lot and people could go to their village homes smoothly."

She mentioned that during the Eid-ul-Fitr this year, people could go to their villages without facing hassles. She thanked the road transport minister for this.

The presence of observers in the upcoming election will be thinner compared with that in 2008, as both domestic and international organisations are unwilling to deploy strong workforce mainly due to fund crunch.

The European Union, for example, will not send any election monitoring team this year.

Around 1.6 lakh domestic and 600 international observers monitored the December 29, 2008, election.

In the 11th parliamentary election set for December 30, it may come down to 40,000, said senior officials of several election monitoring groups and organisations.

However, the number of voters and the polling stations is much higher this time than in 2008.

In the 2008 polls, 35,263 polling centres were set up for 8.1 crore voters. In the upcoming election, around 42,000 polling stations will be set up for more than 10.41 crore electorates.

Election observers contribute greatly to making sure elections are free and fair. Their presence in large numbers is therefore very crucial, said M Hafizuddin Khan, former adviser to a caretaker government.

"In our country, a lot of disputes arise centring on elections. This is why deployment of fewer observers is not a good sign. Many polling stations may remain uncovered as a result,” he told The Daily Star yesterday.

Currently, 118 organisations are registered with the Election Commission to observe elections. The EC asked them to apply by Sunday, specifying the number of observers they would deploy.

Although a senior EC official said some 1 lakh to 1.5 lakh observers may be deployed, senior officials of election monitoring organisations said the number would be much less.

"In the 2008 polls, we deployed around 70,000 observers. This time, we are planning to field 15,000,"    said Abdul Awal, chairman of the Election Working Group (EWG), an alliance of 23 local organisations that monitor election under the banner of EWG.

"We have decided to deploy fewer observers due to unavailability of funds," he told The Daily Star yesterday after attending a briefing for local election observers organised by the Election Commission.

"In my estimate, around 40,000 observers may be deployed in the upcoming election,” he said, adding that training, logistic support and remuneration for observers require huge funds.

Asked about the reason behind the fund shortage, Awal said development partners were losing interest to fund election monitoring missions across the world. “This can be one reason.”

Their priorities for Bangladesh   are also changing. Many development partners are now channelling funds for the Rohingya refugees, he added.

Harun-Or-Rashid, chief executive of Light House, another election monitoring organisation, echoed his views.

His organisation deployed 5,500 observers in 2008. "This time, we are preparing to deploy only 800 because of fund shortage,” he said. 

Also, in 2008 their observers were stationed at polling centres. This year, they will deploy only mobile observers, who will move from one polling station to another.

Mostafa Kamal Akond, assistant director and principal information officer of Coast Trust, said they fielded 3,900 observers in 2008. "But this time, we plan to deploy 1,100 for   fund crunch,” he told this paper yesterday. 

The presence of international observers will also be thinner.

Explaining why they would not send any election monitoring team this time, EU Ambassador Rensje Teerink told the DW on October 31, "That's because sending a credible observer mission is a very big operation. It requires a big number of observers and months of preparation. So, in budgetary terms, it's quite expensive. And it takes a lot of effort and preparation.

"We have therefore decided not to send a team this time round. That doesn't mean that we're not going to follow these elections. We will definitely be paying close attention to the developments in the country."

In 2008, the EU sent about 100 observers.

A senior EC official said the Commonwealth may send a small team. Some embassies and international organisations stationed in Dhaka may deploy some of their staffers to monitor the election process.

'DON'T TALK TO MEDIA'

EC Secretary Helal Uddin Ahmed issued a stern warning to the local election observers yesterday, asking them not to talk to the media on the voting day.

"Stand like a statue inside the polling station and observe the voting process. You cannot talk to the press no matter what,” he told the briefing for the observers at the EC Bhaban in the capital.

Representatives from most election monitoring organisations were present.

Helal also asked them not to enter the polling stations with mobile phones or take any photos inside the stations.

If they find any irregularities, they can inform the EC instantly about it and can publish those in their reports. Observers must be neutral and they cannot do anything to favour any candidate, according to the EC instructions.

Also, election monitoring organisations cannot deploy any member of a political party as an observer.

At the briefing, representatives from a number of organisations    said election observers needed to keep their organisations updated during voting.

"If they cannot carry their mobile phones, how will they contact their senior officials?" asked Harun-Or-Rashid of Light House.

In response, the EC secretary said they would consider the matter.

The Election Commission is making all-out preparations to hold the polls in January, though some crucial political and administrative issues still remain unresolved.

The 90-day countdown to the 12th parliamentary election begins in a week, but the political stalemate over the nature of the polls-time government has yet to end.

In its work plan for the election, the EC has identified "gaining political parties' confidence" as a major challenge. But with time running out, the commission has made little progress to that end.

Besides, it is still indecisive about the timing of sending the ballot papers to the polling stations.

The EC is in favour of sending the ballot papers on the election day morning to prevent possible ballot stuffing on the night before. But some police and administration officials are opposed to this idea due to the enormous logistical challenge involved.

The decision about appointing EC officials as Returning Officers also remains pending.

"We will decide on the issue of appointing Election Commission officials as Returning Officers before the announcement of the election schedule. The issue of sending ballot papers to the polling centres will be finalised in due time," Election Commissioner Anisur Rahman told The Daily Star.

Against this backdrop, majority of the five election commissioners considers that the expected environment is still not there for holding a free, fair, participatory, and festive election as the political parties have not yet resolved their differences about the election-time administration.

In a concept note prepared for a workshop with journalists to be held today, the EC observed that the issue of the polls-time government is a political decision in which the commission has no role to play.

In its effort to bring different political parties on the discussion table, the EC is planning to hold a two-day workshop with all the 44 registered political parties early next month. It will be a multi-party workshop, meaning a number of political parties will be invited for discussion together although a detailed plan has not been finalised yet, a top official of the EC secretariate told The Daily Star yesterday.    

"Our preparations for holding elections are going on in full swing. We will have to conduct the election in line with the constitution. There is no scope for turning back from election even if there is no political agreement," Anisur Rahman said.

"But we hope there will be a political settlement," the election commissioner told this newspaper.

Under the constitutional provision introduced in 2011, national elections must be held within 90 days before the five-year term of parliament expires.

The current parliament expires on January 29. The 90-day countdown starts on November 1.

The commission is likely to announce the schedule next month, and the election is likely to be held in early January 2024.

However, two biggest political parties – the ruling Awami League and opposition BNP – stick to their guns on the election-time government.

BNP wants a caretaker government to oversee the election, while the Awami League says the election will be held under the current government as per the constitution.

BNP insists elections under the current administration will not be free and fair.

"BNP will not join the election unless held under a nonparty, neutral election-time government," BNP Standing Committee Member Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury told The Daily Star yesterday.

For the last couple of months, both parties have been holding rallies and counter-rallies across the country to show their strengths.

Although BNP is still on the streets, AL chief Sheikh Hasina started her party's polls campaign on August 2 in Rangpur.

Asked what will happen if BNP does not join polls, Anisur said, "It's too early to tell if a situation like 2014 will recur. If anything like that happens, actions will be taken accordingly."

The upcoming election is likely to be more challenging as the last two elections in 2014 and 2018 were heavily criticised by election observers, opposition political parties and analysts.

BNP and several other political parties boycotted the 2014 election. As a result, 153 out of the 300 lawmakers were elected unopposed. The 2018 election was participatory, but BNP and other opposition parties allege ballot stuffing happened the night before the election day.

In July last year, the EC held dialogues with political parties aiming to prepare its working plan for 12th national polls. BNP and eight opposition parties skipped the talks, saying they do not think the commission will be able to hold a free, fair, and participatory election.

In March this year, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal sent a demi official letter to BNP, inviting the party for an official or unofficial discussion on the polls. But BNP did not respond, said Anisur Rahman.  

Two election commissioners and several EC officials said they are preparing for the election keeping in mind that BNP and several other parties may boycott the vote.

As part of the preparation for the election, the EC has redrawn 10 constituencies, registered two new political parties, updated the voters' list, and made a primary list of 42,350 polling centres. Amendments to an electoral law have also been made. The EC has approved 67 local observers to monitor the polls and sought applications from international observers and journalists.

Former election commissioner Brig Gen (retd) Sakhawat Hossain said there is a lack of coordination among the election commissioners.

"I don't understand how they will conduct the election as some major parties are not willing to participate in it," he told this newspaper last night.

"They can't get away by saying that 'we can't do anything'. For long, we have been saying that the Election Commission can talk to the political parties. Time is running out. They can still hold talks with political parties and listen to them. After that, if they feel they can't do it, they can tell the government that there is an absence of conducive environment for the election," he noted.