‘Have to play better than we have so far’

 "This is may be the best day to showcase London to the world," laughed a volunteer as rain drizzled down in aimless droplets on a grey day at The Mall, barely 500 metres to the east of the iconic Buckingham Palace.

The Mall, not of the shopping variety but in the more traditional sense of a paved walk through a park, was the chosen venue for the Opening Party of the 2019 ICC World Cup on Wednesday evening. It was ideal to showcase London's many faces. In front of Buckingham palace, ladies and gentlemen were haughtily walking about in their Sunday best -- rain and the fact that it was Wednesday be damned -- while at The Mall Bruno Mars's 24K Magic was blaring out as hundreds of cricket fans of all hues were gathered to help make the party a proper blast. If the rest of London seemed immune to cricket's global showpiece beginning the following day, that was certainly not the case in this corner of the tree-shaded St. James's Park.

And there was a lot to be excited about for cricket nerds. Despite the gloom, cricket fans would have been fumbling for their sunglasses in the mixed media zone, such was the quality of stars mixing with mere mortals. In no particular order Anil Kumble, James Franklin, David Boon, Mahela Jayawardene Jacques Kallis, Brett Lee, Kevin Pietersen and Sir Vivian Richards (okay, perhaps there is an order to how that list ended) were mixing with mere mortals in the mixed media zone.

What made the opening party even more special was the 60-minute challenge that followed the 10 captains coming onto the stage after meeting the Queen at the Palace. The ever-popular Andrew Flintoff emceed the challenge, which was played by celebrity representatives of the 10 participating nations, with each nation putting forth one cricketer and one celebrity. The two teammates would take turns hitting as many balls as possible in one minute, and a shot over the spectator-lined boundary would yield six, four if it was along the ground, one if the bat touched ball, negative one if the player missed and negative four if he or she was dismissed. The most generous cheer came when Pakistan's participants were announced -- Nobel Laureate and activist for women's education Malala Yousafzai strode out with Azhar Ali, lending the event a meaning greater than cricket.

For Bangladesh it was Abdur Razzak and actor Jaya Ahsan. Razzak hit three sixes and two fours, while Jaya missed five deliveries and managed to make contact with just one, bringing the total down to 22. West Indies brought the house down with a team of Richards and 2012 Olympic silver-medallist sprinter Yohan Blake, with both hitting sixes at will. It was England's pair of Pietersen and reality TV star Chris Hughes who won it with 74, beating Australia's Brett Lee and tennis legend Pat Cash's 69.

For a long time it seemed Bangladesh would come in dead last, but that distinction ended up with India's Kumble and actor Farhan Akhtar, who managed just 19, in the process saving Jaya's blushes.

The concept is at once simple and mindbending.

Pakistan arrive at Lord’s for their match against Bangladesh knowing exactly what they must do to reach the last four of the World Cup. The problem is the task is enough to make Hercules baulk.

Thanks to a combination of England’s wet June, their meagre early-tournament displays and cricket’s reluctant bedfellow -- net run rate -- Sarfraz Ahmed and Co know that a win alone will not take them past New Zealand and into the knockout rounds.

With nine points to their name after eight matches, Pakistan can only draw level with the Kiwis and, thanks mainly to their implosion against West Indies five weeks ago, they are left needing a miracle margin of victory.

Let’s think about the mathematics for a second: Sarfraz and his team have to overturn a net run rate deficit of 0.967, and to do so requires a win the likes of which the game has never seen.

Should they rack up 350 -- and bear in mind they have only surpassed that mark 10 times in 924 one-day internationals since 1973 -- they would need to skittle Bangladesh out for 38 or fewer in order to progress.

What if they gave a little extra leeway for the Tigers to score a few more runs -- a shrewd suggestion, given Bangladesh all-rounder Shakib Al Hasan has made at least 41 in every single innings in this World Cup?

Well, if Pakistan hit 400, they could afford to concede 86 with the ball in response and still go through.

Possible? Maybe. There is power at the top of the Pakistani order -- Fakhar Zaman has an ODI double century, after all. But it should be noted that the country has never compiled a score of 400 or more in their one-day international history, their best being the 399 for 1 against Zimbabwe in which Fakhar made his unbeaten 210.

Only one team, coincidentally Zimbabwe, have been dismissed for an ODI total below 80 more times than Bangladesh’s eight, but the most recent instance was in 2014 and they have not returned a score below 200 in any innings this year.

A step further, then. Should Pakistan manage 450 or more -- keep in mind the highest ODI total recorded at Lord’s is 334 -- then they would have to rattle through Bangladesh for a maximum of 129.

It is an unfortunate scenario for Pakistan, who at times in this tournament have played courageous, fearless, elegant cricket, who beat New Zealand quite comfortably, who held off the charge of England at their favourite hunting ground Trent Bridge.

That they have had to resort to cheering for old enemy India and then the Blackcaps is effectively a situation of their own making - that abject failure against the short ball in their opening game against West Indies saw their net run rate plummet to -5.802, the sort of depths you would generally associate with goblin sharks and enemies of organised crime, and, though performances have steadily improved, Pakistan have not dished out the sort of thrashing they needed to balance the books.

The mythical parallels with 1992 have evaporated, the conspiracy theories abound and now their fans must pray for something truly extraordinary to take place at the Home of Cricket on Friday.

Of course, the toss of a coin could render even those dreams redundant.

If Pakistan lose the toss and Bangladesh decide to bat first, then Pakistan will have no chance of making it through.

FACTS

Tamim Iqbal has scored 676 runs -- the most by any batsman in either sides’ current World Cup squad -- in the 16 matches he played against Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Mohammad Hafeez is the highest run-getter in the current Pakistan squad. The all-rounder has amassed 351 runs in the 14 matches he played against Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s ace all-rounder Shakib Al Hasan has scalped 21 wickets -- the most by any player among the two sides’ current World Cup squad -- in the 15 matches he played against Pakistan.

Bangladesh opener Tamim Iqbal’s 132 off 135 balls, which came against Pakistan back in 2015 in Mirpur, remains the highest individual score by any player in either sides’ current World Cup squad.

None of the players in the current Pakistan squad have scored a hundred against Bangladesh in ODIs so far. Mohammad Hafeez’s 89 is the highest by any current Pakistani player against the Tigers.

Tamim Iqbal has a batting average of 45.07 -- the highest by any player of the two sides’ current World squad -- against Pakistan

The match took place at the Ageas Bowl in Southampton, but the pitch and the crowd were such that Bangladesh’s method during yesterday’s 62-run win against Afghanistan was straight from the Mirpur playbook. On a slow wicket, they overcame Afghanistan’s spin threat with steady partnerships built around Mushfiqur Rahim’s 83, and slowly but surely accelerated to a total of 262 for eight. Then, the bowlers, all raised on sluggish surfaces, choked the Afghan batsmen into making mistakes and one particular player drew blood five times as the required run rate ballooned and the wickets in hand shrivelled.

Also, like Mirpur, the support for Bangladesh was overwhelming. When the match was nearing its conclusion, loud chants of ‘Shakib, Shakib!’ went up when Bangladesh’s highest scorer and highest wicket-taker in this World Cup was fielding at the deep square leg fence. He had just completed the quintessential star all-rounder’s performance, scoring 52 in Bangladesh’s innings and then returning spectacular figures of five for 29 from 10 miserly, incisive overs. If his contribution to Bangladesh staying relevant in the World Cup needed to be underscored, he has been the player-of-the-match in the three matches that Bangladesh have won so far.

The win, with two World Cup matches left, moves the Tigers up to fifth position with the equation remaining much the same – having to win their last two matches against India on July 2 and Pakistan on July 5, as well as needing one or two other results to go their way, to make the semifinals.

Skipper Mashrafe Bin Mortaza had placed great importance on assessing conditions during play to win matches across the varying conditions and grounds of the UK. He could not have asked for more than a slowish wicket, a large outfield and Afghanistan skipper Gulbadin Naib’s favour of batting last on a used wicket. Afghanistan had played India on the same surface on Saturday and held their mighty opponents to 224 for eight in an 11-run loss and so would have had a good idea of conditions. But being the superior team on paper, in rankings, on current form and in experience proved to be enough for Bangladesh who understood the Mirpur-ness of the situation and played accordingly.

But it was not all roses for Bangladesh. Their toughest tests are to come in crunch matches against stronger subcontinental opposition, both of whom can be expected to largely negate their spin strength. In that regard, the pace department is a concern. All of them -- Mustafizur Rahman (6.7), Mohammad Saifuddin (6.69) and Mashrafe (6.34) – have been expensive throughout the World Cup. Mashrafe has gone wicketless in five of the six matches so far, including yesterday. Mustafizur and Saifuddin are equal with Shakib on wickets with 10 each, but the two wickets that Mustafizur took – Rashid Khan in the 44rd over and Dawlat Zadran in the 46th – and Saifuddin’s wicket of Mujeeb Ur Rahman to end the chase on 200 with three overs left were all taken when the result was beyond question.

It was Shakib who, in three spells of wily left-arm spin, won the match for Bangladesh. Coming on in the 11th over, he dismissed Rahmat Shah with a skidder that the batsman top edged to mid on. Mosaddek Hossain chipped in by having Hashmatullah Shahidi stumped, but Shakib was back in the 29th over to deal the decisive blow. Naib, the innings’ top scorer with 47, was caught smartly by Liton Das at short cover and a ball later, Shakib bowled

Mohamamd Nabi with a classic arm-ball that snuck through bat and pad. In the 33rd, he had Asghar Afghan smartly stumped by Mushfiqur Rahim. At the end of the over Shakib’s figures read four for 10 from seven overs. Mashrafe could have gone for the kill, but chose to rest Shakib, who had to wait till the 42nd over to bag his second ODI five-for through another stumping, this time the victim being Najibullah Zadran as Afghanistan fell to 188 for seven.

When Bangladesh were batting, even the new ball was stopping on the batsmen, as illustrated by some airy drives early on by Tamim Iqbal and Liton Das, who was opening the innings instead of Soumya Sarkar presumably to deny off-spinner Mujeeb Ur Rahman two left-handers to bowl to.

It was one that stopped that got rid of Liton for 16, when the right-hander drove early against a carrom ball and offered a low catch to cover, where Hashmatullah Shahidi got his fingers underneath the ball just before it hit the turf. The decision went upstairs with a soft signal of out, and after a few replays it was concluded that the catch was clean.

The in-form Shakib Al Hasan was nurdling singles, while Tamim found it harder to score, especially against the off spin of Mohammad Nabi, who was extracting sharp turn from the surface. Tamim made up for a slow start by striking two boundaries off Gulbadin Naib in the 14th over. However, as has been a feature so far in this World Cup, he departed after having done the hard work when, on 36 from 52 balls in the 17th over, he shaped to cut the last ball from Nabi anticipation of turn, but was bowled by one that went straight through.

Off the very next ball, bowled from the other end by Rashid Khan, Shakib was adjudged leg-before and immediately reviewed and, fortunately for Bangladesh, the decision was overturned as the ball was shown to be going over the stumps.

Tamim’s departure brought the form duo of Mushfiqur and Shakib together, and they set about milking the Afghan spinners, bringing up the fifty-run stand in just 51 balls in the 25th over. Shakib’s dismissal, leg-before to Mujeeb, brought to an end a 61-run third-wicket stand. Soumya did not last long, but Mahmudullah Riyad stitched together another significant partnership of 56 for the fifth wicket with Mushfiqur. Despite being visible hampered by a calf strain that he would later get scanned last night, Mahmudullah ran hard and hit some timely blows before a tired looking shot off a Naib slower delivery saw him depart for 28 off 37.

From 217 for five after 43 overs, Mosaddek and Mushfiqur took some quick runs, focusing as much on boundaries as on singles. Bangladesh scored 68 off the last 10 overs. Mushfiqur holed out off Dawlat in the penultimate over for a valuable 87-ball 83, and Mosaddek was bowled by Naib off the last ball for a vital 24-ball 35.