GOP desperate to derail Donald Trump

The campaign to win the nomination for the US presidential election has become nasty. It has degenerated into vulgar name calling, particularly among the Republican Party candidates. The marathon campaign that began around July 2015 is reaching its climax, as the Party convention nears. The Grand Old Party (GOP), i.e. the Republican Party convention is scheduled for July 18-21, 2016 in Ohio and the Democratic Party Convention will be held from July 25-28, 2016 in Philadelphia.

Both the Democrats and the Republican candidates are in a fight to win the nomination.  As is the case in all countries during elections, the American polity is deeply divided now.

The Republican Party campaign started off with 17 candidates, and as of March 10, 2016, still has four strong candidates – with billionaire Donald Trump (69) leading the polls, Florida Senator Marco Rubio (44), Texas Senator Edward "Ted" Cruz (45), and Ohio Governor John Kasich (63). 

The Democratic Party is in a better position with only two candidates - charismatic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (68), the ultimate insider of the establishment who has a commanding lead over Vermont's Jewish Senator Bernie Sanders (74). If Hillary Clinton wins, it will the first time in American history that a woman will occupy the Oval Office as president.

What is most extraordinary is the phenomenal popularity of billionaire businessman Donald Trump. Trump's popularity is seen as an indictment against the Democrats as well as against the current leadership of the Republican Party. Hardcore Conservative party workers think that Democratic President Barack Obama's eight years were a "disaster". Conservative voters also think that the current Republican leaders in Washington have failed to deliver on their promises and have compromised with the Democrats. Clearly, there is revolt within the GOP and mutineers want change in the GOP establishment.

Trump has been harping with radical half-baked populist issues that resonate among prejudiced people. White angry men without job security form Trump's support base. He has divided America along religious and racial lines with his bigotry and demagoguery. His invectives against Muslims, talks of building a wall along Mexico to stop illegal immigration, bringing back jobs from China, rescinding Obamacare, balancing America's deficit budget, making the American military the strongest in the world and white supremacy – find instant approval from the far Right. Trump has used media debates to belittle his party challengers. He has shown unbelievable animosity towards them and liberally attacked them with vulgar insults.

Trump's popularity has shaken and deeply divided the Republican Party establishment. Neocon Republicans are in a quandary over how to stop the Trump juggernaut. Republican elites fear that this outsider will hijack the Conservative party and demolish its core values. Besides, the leaders' biggest fear is that if Trump is nominated as the Republican candidate at the Party convention, then GOP will lose the White House to Hillary Clinton.

Interestingly, according to opinion polls, Trump cannot win against Hillary Clinton. And Hillary cannot win against Ted Cruz. The irony is that Trump is way ahead of Cruz and may win the Party nomination.

Though Trump draws large crowds, his rallies in different cities have seen raucous protests. An anti-Trump movement is underway to stop the arrogant front-runner. On March 3, 2016, the 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in a scathing speech demolished Donald Trump calling him a "phony" and "fraud", and arguing that he "lacks the temperament to be president of America". Romney has called for nominating any candidate other than Donald Trump. The dilemma for the Republicans is: should they stand by the outsider Trump or ditch him? Can they really overturn the Party convention decision? 

The problem is that party leaders have no say at the party convention about who will be the presidential nominee. The nominee will be decided by the party delegates coming from all over the country. The delegates are independent and not under the command or influence of any party leader. The Republican Party has 2,472 delegates, representing all the 50 states. Among the four candidates, whoever secures the support of at least 1,237 delegates (simple majority) will become the party nominee for the presidential race.

To throw Donald Trump out of the race, Conservatives have been calling for a "contested convention". That is, when no single candidate secures the support of majority of the delegates at the convention, the nomination is decided through a process of horse trading and additional re-votes when delegates can change their support of a candidate. This is the time when senior leaders can probably influence the decision making. Trump thinks he will gain a "knockout", i.e. get more than the simple majority at the convention.

The campaign for nomination is an interesting circus at play, which is essentially fought over the electronic media and focuses closely on the hullabaloo created by Trump. Candidates extensively use social media to promote their profile and rebut criticisms. An aggregate $4.4 billion will be spent on TV ads by the candidates to convince voters and criticise opponents. 

The American presidential election is a complex process in which the president is elected not by direct votes but through an electoral college. It is touted as a democratic process. But the deficit shows when the process is frequently sullied by uncivil and indecent language and unfair tactics.

The campaign, described by many as one of the dirtiest, is currently dominated by the controversial rhetoric raised by Donald Trump. It will be interesting to see whether Republican leaders succeed in containing Donald Trump or succumb to his strategy.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.