Political crisis in Brazil

Brazil's progressive centre-left government of Dilma Rousseff has come to an awful end. On May 12, 2016 Brazil's Senate voted 55 to 22 to suspend President Dilma Rousseff, and began the formal impeachment trial against her. Earlier, on April 17, the lower house voted 367 to 137 in favour of her impeachment.

Rousseff is accused of serious budgetary malfeasance – allegedly transferring loans from public banks to the treasury, in order to disguise the size of Brazil's fiscal deficit. Actually, it is common practice by governments to juggle with budgetary figures to hide the actual condition of the economy (for example, Greece, which went into an economic meltdown after it was discovered that budget figures were tampered with).

Rousseff denied any wrongdoing and described the impeachment process as "fraudulent" and a "coup". Dilma Rousseff is, however, not accused of personal enrichment.

Rousseff formed a left-leaning coalition government of nine parties after the 2014 election. Rousseff's Workers Party (PT) and Vice President Michel Temer's Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (centrist PMDB) were the larger components of the coalition. Temer was Rousseff's running mate in the 2014 election, and technically was not elected.

The conspiracy to depose Rousseff was in the making for some time. Clearly, two factors contributed to the ouster of the Workers Party, which has been in power for the past 13 years. First is Brazil's poor economic performance in the last several years, and second, the exasperation of rightist parties, the ruling class, economic elite, and the mainstream media.

The country is suffering its worst recession in 25 years. In 2015, the economy shrank by 3.8 percent, and Brazil's central bank projected that it will shrink by 3.5 percent in 2016. This has been compounded by low commodity prices of exports, mainly oil and manufactured goods; a weak currency; contraction of domestic demand; surging public spending; budget deficit at 6.75 percent of GDP; inflation at 9 percent (2015); rising unemployment; and an external debt at $230 billion.

Though Rousseff's anti-poverty programme – "Bolsa Familia" - remains widely popular, as it benefitted millions, she failed to stem the economic downturn. As frustration grew among the people, her popularity rating plummeted to 10 percent. Right-wing parties instigated anti-government demonstrations over the past months in Brasilia, while other cities called for Rousseff's resignation. To make matters worse, PMDB withdrew its support in late March 2016. Other coalition partners also turned against Rousseff. Michel Temer and the Lower House Speaker Eduardo Cunha (from PMDB) actually led the impeachment drive, which began in late 2015.

What is disturbing about Brazilian politicians today is that almost all leading political figures have been implicated in some form of corruption. According to Transparency International Corruption Index, Brazil is placed at 76 among 168 countries (2015). The unpopular Michel Temer (according to polls, 58 percent of the voters were against him), who succeeded Rousseff as interim president for 180 days, is implicated in a number of scandals, including the infamous Petrobras corruption case, in which billions of dollars changed hands.

Dilma Rousseff's impeachment trial will be held in Brazil's Parliament. The 81 members of the Senate will act as the jury, and the presiding Chief Justice of Brazil's Supreme Court will be the judge. After both sides submit their arguments, two-thirds vote of the full Senate will be required to either convict or acquit Dilma Rousseff for crimes de responsabilidade (crimes of responsibility). The process will have to be completed within six months, and during this period, Michel Temer will run the government as president.

Michel Temer has already formed a 22-member all-male cabinet, which does not include any of the ministers who worked under Dilma Rousseff. Interestingly, Wikileaks, on May 12, tweeted that Temer is a US embassy informant.

Actually, there is a widespread belief that the US was behind destabilising Dilma Rousseff's left-leaning government. It is an open secret that the CIA had played a key role in Brazil's 1964 military coup. Civilian rule was reinstated in 1985, but the democratic process is yet to become strong and stable.

Brazil, an ethnically diverse nation with a population of 206 million is the eighth largest economy in the world (GDP $2.4 trillion, 2014). It is a leading power in South America and an important member of BRICS. The impeachment process against Dilma Rousseff will have implications for UNASUR (the 12-nation Union of South American Nations, established in 2008), a bastion of independence from US hegemony in the region. Brazil's conservative economic orientation under Michel Temer may also drive MERCOSUR (10-nation Southern Common Market, established in 1991) into the free trade camp, isolating leftist governments of Venezuela and Bolivia. Besides, one hopes that the Rio Olympic Games (August 5-21, 2016) will not be affected by the political crisis facing Brazil.

Analysts say that the right political parties in Brazil may soon find themselves faced with an eroding ephemeral legitimacy if the economic situation does not improve immediately. The IMF has projected that Brazil's economy will improve, but it will take quite some time.

The current political crisis will no doubt further weaken Brazil's democratic system. However, Brazil's judiciary remains strong and has been relentlessly pursuing investigations against corruption.

The impeachment trial of Dilma Rousseff, a one-time Marxist guerrilla, is a constitutional procedure - it is not a criminal indictment. Even if she is acquitted, it is unlikely that she will regain the presidency, as other conspiracies will be churned out to block the left-parties from regaining power. The next general election, due in 2018, will tell which way Brazil is heading. 

Indeed, the more one looks at the current situation in Brazil, the more  it resembles a soft coup, described by a professor of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro as a "neoliberal coup", against Dilma Rousseff.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.