A BURMESE DÉJÀ VU

Courtesy: www.asiaobserver.org.

AS thousands of Rohingyas from Myanmar have been fleeing persecution and poverty, adrift on rickety boats on the seas of Southeast Asia in search of a better life—I wondered what kind of a country allows such an atrocity to happen with the whole world watching. 

The army has ruled Myanmar since 1962. And with a constitution that granted it sweeping powers and a compliant parliament, the generals are now presiding over a Potemkin democracy. The result is a country where the government allocates only 3 percent of its budget to healthcare while 29 percent goes to the military.

Everything is in short supply - electricity is erratic, telephones are unreliable and there are few ATMs. Less than 50 percent of children complete primary education. AIDS has become a "generalised epidemic", with 1.2 percent of the population infected with HIV. Almost 100,000 new cases of tuberculosis are detected every year. Even basic supplies such as bandages and painkillers are often scarce. The generals, however, are in total denial. They depict the rosy picture of an economy that is growing at a steady rate of 10 percent or more a year. 

It's hard to take them seriously when it comes to understanding market forces. For instance, they used to fund big budget deficits by printing money (or "borrowing" it from the central bank), a policy resulting in double-digit inflation. No wonder the Heritage Foundation, a top US think-tank, considers Myanmar's economy the most distorted in the world, second only to North Korea's. That has, however, hardly stopped the ranks of the army from more than doubling since 1988, to roughly 380,000. And the revenue from gas exports has allowed the regime to upgrade its stockpile of weapons. 

Since gaining independence from Britain in 1948, the country's numerous minority ethnic groups, which comprise about 40 percent of the population, have been in constant conflict either with the central government or with each other. The roots of these conflicts lie in promises contained in the Panglong Agreement. Signed by Aung San, a leading architect of Myanmar's independence (and father to Aung San Suu Kyi), as well as Kachin, Chin and Shan representatives, the agreement promised broad regional autonomy to the  ethnic minorities and said that a "separate Kachin State…is desirable". The government has yet to deliver on either promise.

Conditions are particularly bad in the border areas. As many as 10,000 people get killed each year in the border region while many more die of disease or starvation. Reportedly, the army often resorts to murder, rape, arbitrary arrest, and forced labour - abuses systematically and specifically aimed at ethnic minorities. 

Strangely enough, the international community and neighbouring countries have become much friendlier in recent times after years of sanctions and boycotts. US President Barack Obama's visit to the country in 2012 and 2014 offered hopes of political and economic reforms. In 2012, the pseudo-civilian government of President Thein Sein released many political dissidents from jail or house arrest, signaling the advent of liberalisation. China, hardly a champion of democracy itself, has had good relations with the regime historically. This friendship with China has also prompted an anxious India to invest more in Myanmar. 

But now the military is tightening its grip again and progress on major issues has stalled. Under the Constitution, the military controls a quarter of the seats in parliament, enough to block any amendments. On June 25, it flexed its muscle once again blocking moves to rescind its veto power in parliament and refusing to ease a rule that prevents Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president. Adding to the already complex calculus of power is the increasingly out of sync relations between President Thein Sein, a career army bureaucrat, and commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.  

After showing a brief moment of promise, Myanmar seems to be backsliding into the throes of authoritarian rule.
 
The writer is an engineer-turned-journalist.