Turkey's democracy on trial

The recent political developments in Turkey has not come as a surprise. On May 5, 2016, the popular Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced that he will resign following serious rifts with the president.

It is all related to President RecepTayyip Erdogan's ambition to become an executive president. Under the current parliamentary system, he only has a ceremonial role in state affairs.

Erdogan's authoritarian streak was not so prominent when his Islam-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, promising to uphold Turkey's secular traditions. After winning five successive elections, Erdogan has become unstoppable. For instance,on May 2, a bill withdrawing immunity of deputies was passed when a brawl erupted in the Parliament, apparently designed to corner opposition parliamentarians. On May 6, Erdogan said that "the existing parliamentary system is a cause of crisis." Therefore, a presidential system would be offered to people.

One of the probable reasons for opting for the presidential system is to reduce the uncertainties associated with the Parliament's make-up. The June 2015 election showed that AKP was the biggest party in the Parliament but it had no majority. It tried to form a coalition government but failed. Hence came the snap election in November 2015 when AKP regained its majority. A strong executive president, elected directly by the people, will be able to govern anyway, even if the government party loses Parliament majority.

Erdogan may be planning another election in October 2016 to secure 330 (it now has 317) seats required to approve the constitutional amendment to public referendum.

Interestingly, on May 1, 2016, a mysterious blog, (probably by an Erdogan supporter) titled "Pelican Brief" appeared in The Turkish Sun, giving an account on why Ahmet Davutoglu lost his job.

One of the insinuations in the blog is that Davutoglu was a "traitor". Davutoglu was chosen as Prime Minister to help facilitate the transition to the presidential system, but he did not support the reform. Davutoglu made deals with the European Union and presented them as his success. The "treacherous" Davutoglu tried to pass a "transparency law"; he tried to broker a deal with the Kurdish militants; and opposed the jailing of two journalists of The Cumhuriyet. The daily published reports that Turkey's intelligence service was smuggling weapons to Islamists in Syria. The two leaders had serious disagreements over the trial of these journalists. Finally, in late April 2016, Erdogan (founder of AKP) stripped Davutoglu's (president of AKP) powers to appoint provincial party executives.

On May 5, 2016, Davutoglu met President Erdogan when the two leaders decided to part ways. These two men were pillars of stability in Turkey since 2003. Later, Davutoglu announced his decision to step down at the next Party Congress, refraining from criticising Erdogan. Many have described Davutoglu's departure as a "palace coup".

Clearly, Erdogan has decided to not tolerate any opposition to his agenda. AKP is scheduled to hold an extraordinary congress on May 22 to elect a successor to Davutoglu. Evidently, the next prime minister-cum-AKP president will be loyal to Erdogan and not steal the show from him.

One wonders why Erdogan chose to sack his prime minister at a time when Turkey faces security challenges. The situation in adjoining Syria is far more complicated now than it was a year ago. Erdogan's Syrian policy to unseat Bashar Al Assad has failed. Ankara's relations with Moscow suffered a serious setback when Turkey shot down a Russian jet over Syria. Turkey's relations with Egypt and Israel are strained. Turkey has a rocky relation with Europe, as it has been negotiating a difficult deal on how to stop Syrian refugees from crossing over to the continent. The deal is linked to get EU's agreement to allow Turkish nationals to travel to the Schengen area without visa.

Erdogan's decision to bomb Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq had further complicated Turkey's internal security. There have been bomb attacks in Istanbul and Ankara over the past months, killing scores of people. 

However, AKP is still united, and given Erdogan's popular image among Turkey's pious masses, he will probably get his way and be the executive president. But the concentration of executive power in the presidency is very risky – it not only tends to become authoritarian and abusive, but also emboldens opposition parties to revolt.

Erdogan may see protests from the secular sections, something akin to the Arab Spring. If that happens Turkey's situation may not be very different from that of Syria. 

The fear is that the powerful military may be encouraged to stage a comeback as it has done five times since 1960. The military generals, who still idolise Kemal Ataturk, have always considered themselves as the guardian of secularism in Turkey. 

Turkey has been a model of secularism and democracy in the Middle Eastern region and had proved that religion and democracy are indeed compatible. That myth seems to waning. Its Arab neighbours - Iraq, Syria, Egypt, GCC countries, and others - are ruled by authoritarian presidents or monarchs with no democracy or human rights in sight. Will Erdogan be another Bashar or Qaddafi?

After hosting two important summits, G20 (November 15, 2015) and OIC (April 14, 2016), where Erdogan rubbed shoulders with world leaders, the dismissal of Davutoglu has smeared his reputation as a democratic world leader.

Erdogan probably wants to transform Turkey's "secular republic" credentials and restore the lost glory of the Ottoman Caliphate. Kemal Ataturk, the founder of secular Republic of Turke,y must be turning in his grave at what's happening to Turkey. Indeed, Turkey's democracy is now on trial.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.