Will Project Europe survive Brexit?

Since Britain decided to quit the EU, there has been lots of analysis about the economic fallout on what will happen to Britain and the European Union. But, what about the future of Project Europe?

The much cherished Project Europe, co-founded by Germany and France, has a background. Extreme nationalism in the early 1900s led Europeans to fight wars in the old continent. The First World War (1914-18), followed by the establishment of the League of Nations, did not bring peace to the continent. The Great Depression of the 1930s again saw an upsurge of nationalistic sentiments in Europe that led to the Second World War (1939-45).

The post-WWII scenario in Europe was dominated by two threats. First, the possible return of Westphalian sovereignty, which grows out of sovereign decision making ability, jealous protection of national interest and patriotism that could again push Europe to conflicts. The second was the ideological confrontation – the Cold War between the West and USSR -- frequently raising tensions of real wars. 

Essentially, Project Europe grew out of these two threats. Security was the bedrock of the project. Leaders realised a stable and federated Europe was necessary to avoid conflicts within the continent, as also to face the USSR. They recognised that without liberal democracy there would be no peace, and that economic cooperation among Europeans would ensure progress in the continent. Nationalism was thus on the wane and support for federalism grew. 

Since the Schuman Declaration in 1950, the process of European cooperation moved slowly towards integration, but not without stumbles. The creation of a single market, free movement of people through the Schengen scheme, launching of Euro currency, common foreign policy, etc. provided peace and security to Europe over the past three generations. By 2015, the European Union became the second largest economic unit in the world after the US, with a total GDP of USD 19 trillion.

Though Russia moved to a democratic system after the disintegration of USSR in 1991, EU continued to distrust Moscow. However, cooperation between EU and Russia grew steadily in different fields for two decades with bilateral trade and investment reaching over USD 300 billion by 2014. Relations took a drastic plunge when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and EU along with the US slapped economic sanctions on Russia.

Fear of dominance by nuclear armed Russia - some call it "revisionist regional hegemon" - in Europe has resurfaced. Europeans are worried of Russian designs after what it did to Ukraine and its military excursion in Syria. NATO generals during their military exercise in May 2016 in Poland warned of existential threat to Europe. They claimed Moscow was "destabilising the region" and warned of escalation of tension along Europe's eastern borders. Vladimir Putin's geostrategic policy has been to create a buffer zone around Russia.

Project Europe's severest jolt came from the referendum on June 23, when Britain decided to quit the EU. Security analysts have raised questions whether Project Europe will survive after Brexit? Billionaire George Soros recently wrote, EU has "ceased to satisfy its citizens' needs and aspirations . . . the catastrophic scenario that many feared has materialised, making the disintegration of the EU practically irreversible".

Britain, with its nuclear deterrent and largest defence budget in Europe, is a powerful NATO member. Its departure from EU will definitely weaken Europe. France, the only other nuclear state in Europe, has a tendency to be independent. There are deep ideological differences over diplomatic and security issues among Europeans. Analysts see Britain as anti-Russian, while the French and Germans are perceived to be moderate towards Russia.  

EU has a Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), which is an extension of Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). But it is weak and decentralised and does not have any permanent headquarters. Britain was opposed to strengthening CSDP and preferred military coordination through NATO. As Britain prepares to leave, EU's military leadership will fall on Berlin and Paris to develop a "global strategy" and begin integrating Europe's military under a central command with operational structures. But without UK, it will not be forceful.

Actually, the burden to defend Europe against any possible aggression falls on US-led NATO. With American troops located in several countries in Europe and Washington being the major contributor to NATO, the US shall continue to remain the main phalanx of transatlantic security.

Though Britain's exit will not impact NATO capabilities in Europe, it will certainly redefine Europe's military equation with Russia. Soon after the Brexit referendum, President Obama described US-UK relations as "special", hinting that Anglo-Saxon ties are likely to deepen. To maintain its global interests, Britain is likely to draw a closer defence relationship with America.

There are two dangers associated with Brexit. First, the breakup of EU, as extreme right political parties, in several EU member countries have been calling for a referendum to quit the EU. Second, the United Kingdom itself may end up disunited if Scotland and Northern Ireland break away.

A fragmented Europe will no doubt be vulnerable to outside pressures. And more importantly, a disunited Britain will not only be relegated to a third rate military power, it may even lose its UN Security Council seat, further complicating the security of Europe.

There is, however, a thin silver lining in the dark clouds. Soon after the June 23 referendum, more than three million Bregreteers (regretting Brexit decision) signed a petition asking the government for a second referendum. Prime Minister Theresa May recently said that Brexit could be delayed until late 2019. Many have started pondering that it may not be Brexit after all -- it may end as Bregret. 

At the moment, it appears that divisions within the EU will hasten the demise of Project Europe.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.