France rejects ultra-nationalism

The rise of ultra-nationalist populist parties in Europe has been a threat to European unity. The French presidential election came at a time when the EU was staring disintegration in the face.

Disenchanted with untrustworthy and corrupt politicians, people rejected the mainstream established parties in the first round and went to the second round to choose between two unconventional candidates. They saw an alternative in Emmanuel Macron, who won the election with 66 percent votes against 34 percent for Marine Le Pen, to be the eighth president of the Fifth Republic. Macron's victory was a reprieve from Marine Le Pen's populism.

There was deep anxiety all over Europe about who would secure the Elysée Palace after the second round of the French Presidential election of May 7. It was great relief all over Europe, particularly in Brussels that centrist-liberal Emmanuel Macron would be the next leader of France. The charismatic Macron, at 39, is the youngest president of France.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker heaved a sigh of relief tweeting: "Happy that the French chose a European future". Brussels was even happier as there would be no threat of Frexit. Both the Socialist Party and the Republican Party were pleased at the result. Liberals in Europe were exuberant that the far-right candidate was rejected by French voters.

However, there were two leaders – Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin – who were apparently not so happy at the outcome. The congratulatory messages for Macron coming from Trump and Putin were certainly subdued and run-of-the-mill official texts. Interestingly, former US president Barack Obama, endorsed Macron, because, as he stated, the "success of France matters to the entire world". 

Macron will have a difficult task reunifying the deeply divided French polity. His victory was based on wide media exposure and the social media network. Though France is famous for the French Revolution, Macron is not a revolutionary but essentially a traditional centrist. 

Popularity of any French president is linked to the economic wellbeing of the people. Macron's success as president will depend on turning around the moribund French economy. His strong pro-Europe policies, globalisation and free market approach, and pledges to strengthen the Eurozone, flexible labour laws to cut down unemployment, slimmer bureaucracy, reduced corporate tax, etc, may bear fruit - but these will take time.

The French Constitution provides for an unusual mixture of presidential and parliamentary system of government. The president and the Parliament are elected separately – making it difficult at times for the president to get a loyal Parliament. When the president and the majority group in Parliament, forming the government under a Prime Minister, belong to opposed political persuasion, it results in cohabitation – an awkward power-sharing arrangement.

These are defining times for France and the future will depend on Macron's government. Lots of polarisation is underway in French political circles as France goes for the two-round legislative elections (June 11 and 18) to elect the 577-seat National Assembly. Party leaders are busy trying to form coalitions either to join the President-elect or to oppose him. For instance, Francois Baroin, head of the Republican Party's campaign for the legislative election, has offered to serve as Prime Minister under Macron in a cohabitation government. Former Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls also wants to join REM and serve under Macron. 

Macron plans to contest all the constituencies while he renamed his movement to "La Republic En Marche" (REM) and converted it into a political party. He plans to select at least half the candidates from the civil society. He has waived party rules that will allow outgoing Socialist and Republican deputies (Members of Parliament) to sever ties with their parties and join REM to contest the election. Macron has also kept 90 constituencies reserved for the "Democratic Movement" (MoDem) of Francois Bayrou, who endorsed him during the presidential election. Thus, a coalition has emerged between REM and MoDem that may get a majority in the National Assembly. If REM-MoDem gets a majority, it will make it easier for Macron to choose his Prime Minister and get the reform related legislation through the National Assembly easily. According to polls, REM is likely to get majority in the legislative elections. 

Without a majority in Parliament, REM will paralyse Macron into being a dummy president. Cohabitating with any opposing majority parliamentary group would be frustrating for Macron and end the reforms that he wants.

However, it would be naïve to think Marine Le Pen's National Front (FN) has been eliminated from the French political scene after the May 7 defeat. Actually, FN has made a firm footprint in the French political landscape. Losing the election has made her a strong opposition leader. Le Pen is certainly not going to waste her popularity. She has pledged to transform the party, rename it to scrub off its xenophobic and racist image and become a new political force to win voters' support. FN already has two deputies in the outgoing Parliament.

Le Pen is trying to build on her 34 percent vote and get as many seats as possible in the National Assembly. FN leaders consider that 11 million voters is substantial support for the party to make a strong showing in the parliamentary elections. FN spokesman Jerome Riviere warned that the French public will regret their decision for not electing Le Pen, and will be disappointed with Macron within weeks. FN leaders hope that if they emerge as a large parliamentary group, it will help Le Pen's chances to be president in 2022.

After the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump's election, the European Union faced the danger of disintegration as the appeal from ultra-right parties gained momentum in Europe. But the defeat of the ultra-right in Austria, the Netherlands and now France will definitely have an impact on the German elections coming up in September, 2017.

One has to wait to see how France votes in the legislative election, which will determine the direction of the Fifth Republic under Emmanuel Macron.

The writer is a former Ambassador and Secretary.