Interesting race for the Elysée Palace

France goes to polls to elect a new president on April 23, 2017, at a time when the electorate is deeply worried about the political direction of the country. Several issues under the current socialist government of Francois Hollande - economic problems related to working hours and social benefits; influence of Brexit on the European Union; the election of Donald Trump; rise of terrorist attacks; social instability created by Muslim refugees; and debates about religious freedom  and secularism;  continuation of emergency, etc - have raised apprehensions among people.

French law requires candidates to secure 500 signatures from national or local elected officials from at least 30 different districts to run for presidency. The signature collection process will end on March 17, 2017, when the final list of candidates will be officially published. Currently there are several unofficial candidates, the four prominent are – Benoit Hamon (Socialist), Francois Fillon (Les Republicains), Emmanual Macron (Independent), and the redoubtable Marine Le Pen (Front National).

The Socialist Party is in a pretty bad shape. President Francois Hollande has not been popular and recognising his low polls rating, has decided not to seek a second term. Many expected that former Prime Minister Manuel Valls would get the party nomination. But he lost to the leftist rebel, former education minister Benoit Hamon. Hamon, not very popular amongst the leftists, has made some unrealistic campaign promises, such as reducing working hours from 35 to 32 hours per week and providing monthly basic income for all. He is likely to be eliminated in the first round, according to some opinion polls.

Seeing Marine Le Pen's popularity, Hollande has vowed that he will "do everything" to prevent her from being elected president. The interesting twist is Hollande can still run for the second term and has secretly kept his 500 votes just in case he decides by March 17 to replace Hamon.

Francois Fillon, former Prime Minister under Nicolas Sarkozy, entered the race with lots of promises. Unfortunately, he is now under dark clouds as the French satirical magazine Le Canard Enchainé revealed in January 2017 that when he was Prime Minister, he illegally paid his British wife half a million Euros for being his parliamentary assistant, a post which never existed. Fillon did not deny the allegation and said that the payment was 'perfectly justified". French investigators are now investigating the case, while no formal charges have been made so far. Though Fillon has been claiming he is victim of an "institutional coup d'etat", his polls rating has plummeted. The allegation has demoralised his supporters and many have deserted him.

To keep party unity, activists demanded that Fillon step aside and let veteran conservative Alain Juppé run for the presidency. But Alain Juppé, Prime Minister under Jacques Chirac, lost to Fillon in the Republican Party primary in November 2016. In a firm statement on March 6, 2017, Juppé announced that he would not stand in for Fillon. Unless legal charges pull Fillon down, he will remain in the race. As criticisms against Fillon continues to mount and with prospect of criminal charges against him, the infighting within the Republican Party is evident. As of now, Fillon's chance of making it to the Elysée Palace appears remote, according to polls.

Emmanuel Macron, Hollande's Minister for Economy, resigned in August 2016 to form his own movement known as "En Marche" (on the move) – not a party. He fancies himself as an outsider like Donald Trump and rejects the political system and calls for "democratic revolution" and "structural reforms" without elaborating on them. However, the disarray within the Republican Party has made Macron's prospects brighter. His polls rating is relatively high and he may end up reaching the second round.

The most talked about candidate this time around is the extreme-right Front National leader Marine Le Pen. She is a member of the European Parliament and contested the French presidential election in 2012, when she was placed third with 17.9 percent votes behind Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy. Marine Le Pen took over the party from her father in 2011, softened the party's racist image and expelled her father from the party in 2015. Le Pen has promised to take France out of the EU, replace Euro with French Franc, and vowed to bring back jobs, growth and prosperity.

Though her popularity rating is high, all is not well with Marine Le Pen. She has been suspected of illegal party financing and fake jobs for two of her assistants in the European Parliament. The European Parliament lifted her immunity from French prosecution for sending tweets in December 2015, which displayed images of killings by ISIS militants. French law prohibits the distribution of violent images or incitement of terrorism.

French presidential elections have usually been a two-horse race between the Socialists and Republicans. But this time it may be different. The high drama involving the main candidates will be clear after March 17. The two-round system in French voting was introduced to weed out stragglers. The second round will be held on May 7, 2017. Soon after the presidential election, France will also elect 577 members of the National Assembly on June 11 and 18, 2017. The question is will the new President get the support of the majority party in the National Assembly?

France is a rich industrial democracy in troubled Europe. Analysts say that this pivotal election will not only decide the future of France but also of Europe. The architect of the Fifth French Republic Charles de Gaulle once famously said, "How can anyone govern a nation that has more than 300 different kinds of cheese?" Let us hope that France does not go down the populist path and wreck the European Union, but rather sticks to mainstream consensus politics.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.