Keep the pressure on Myanmar

Hatred against Muslims, particularly Rohingyas, has been smouldering in Myanmar since it obtained its independence from Britain in 1948. Besides fighting 15 insurgent groups along its borders, Myanmar has never been at peace with itself. The low intensity civil war is essentially between the government (Bamar military) and the non-Bamar insurgents. The new addition has been the Aqa Mul Mujahideen (AMM), which is suspected to be an offshoot of the defunct Rohingya Solidarity Organisation.

The latest round of atrocities against the Rohingyas began following an AMM attack in early October this year at police stations. The brunt of the mayhem perpetrated against the Rohingyas is being felt in Bangladesh, as thousands of these wretched people have started streaming into Bangladesh to escape military carnage. They have already lost their citizenship, and are now under threat of losing their home, hearth and lives.

The other reason for hostility against Rohingyas is the geographical location of Bangladesh. The Muslim majority Bangladesh is sandwiched between Hindu India and Buddhist Myanmar. The twisted argument is that people from overpopulated Bangladesh migrate illegally to these countries because of deprivation and poverty. The claim in the Indian Rajya Sabha on November 16, 2016, by Indian minister Kiren Rijiju that 20 million illegal Bangladeshis migrants were living in India, is a case in point. The Burmese authorities repeatedly made similar accusations. 

Bamars, who constitute 68 percent of the population, seem to have become xenophobes since  the days of General Ne Win (1962) when he adopted the policy to make Myanmarese language, Buddhism and Bamar culture the single cultural identity of Myanmar. Burmese military is exclusively made up of male Buddhist Bamars. Non-Bamar and non-Buddhists are excluded by policy from all government positions, opportunities and all elections.

What is ominous is that Aung San Suu Kyi has started using terminologies such as "Bengali" and "Muslims of Rakhine State" to describe Rohingyas. The government has given into the slogan of Ma Ba Tha, the extremely racist organisation led by the bigoted Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. 

The term Rohingya has wide connotations. It means a person of Rohang, the old Muslim term for what is now Rakhine state, which confers historical legitimacy on the Muslim community of Myanmar. The Myanmar government refuses to call them Rohingya, because it will officially recognise the community as a race that has political and human rights. During the 2014 census, the Rohingyas were forced to identify themselves as "Bengali", so that the government could eventually expel them to Bangladesh. And thus, it is wrong to accept terminologies such as "Bengali" or "Muslims of Rakhine" as it strips the Rohingya community of their rights.

It is quite understandable why Suu Kyi has not condemned the military atrocities against the Rohingyas. Suu Kyi is not the Head of State and thus is not in command of the military, which still holds important ministries (defence, home, border security) under its order. Her position in the government is precarious, as she presumably leads the government as State Councillor (Prime Minister) and holds the foreign ministry portfolio, but has few powers. Though Myanmar claims to have democracy, it is actually a charade, and the military has placed Suu Kyi as its facade, using her to get Western sanctions lifted. Hasn't she legitimised the genocide of the Rohingyas when she stated that the military was taking action based on the "rule of law"? Could she have said anything different and retained her position?

There was a faint ray of hope when in August 2016 Kofi Annan was commissioned to chair the Advisory Commission on Rakhine "to finding the best possible solution to prevailing problems". Though Kofi Annan visited northern Rakhine recently, he is unlikely to see anything amiss. Given Annan's failure as UN Special Envoy to Syria in 2012, it is unlikely he will be able to bring peace in Rakhine with his recommendations. After what is happening in Rakhine, the Commission appears to be a futile exercise. 

Given past experiences, Bangladesh's efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully through "persuasion and mutual understanding" will not bear fruit. It is unlikely that the Myanmar government will take back the Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh through peaceful negotiations. The visit of Bangladesh foreign ministers to Myanmar was cancelled recently, which shows that the Myanmar government is unwilling to talk to Bangladesh. Myanmar has mounted diplomatic campaigns against the so-called illegal migration of Bengalis from Bangladesh to Rakhine, and blames them for atrocities against Buddhist people there.

There is a sense of wishful thinking that pressure could be mounted on Myanmar through regional groupings such as BCIM and BIMSTEC. One must understand that Myanmar government's membership of these groups is deceptive. The Myanmarese military leaders have taken these memberships for junkets abroad, show that they are a part of the international community, but hardly ever care for these organisations. The military dominated government does not seem to care about its international image. Fighting insurgents has given the military a bunker mentality. They do not trust anyone and believe Myanmar can live in isolation. 

The exodus of Rohingyas from Rakhine into Bangladesh is a grave threat to its socio-economic security.  Soft-peddling with Myanmar will not resolve the crisis. Myanmar has always spurned Bangladesh's move for friendship, and friendship is never a one-way traffic.

Bangladesh has to be firm and consider calling for a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting to address the grave security threat from Myanmar. UNSC can do the following: a) pass a resolution that all Rohingya refugees have to return to Myanmar from Bangladesh and regain their citizenship within a fixed time frame; b) deploy UN peacekeeping forces in Rakhine until all Rohingya refugees return to Rakhine; c) impose economic sanctions on Myanmar to be lifted after the crisis is resolved.

Unless strong determined steps are taken by the government to resolve this intractable crisis, Bangladesh is destined to host 1.4 million Rohingyas as refugees.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary, who served as Counsellor in Bangladesh Embassy, Rangoon (1988-1991).