The race for Raisina Hill
President Pranab Mukherjee of India will complete his tenure of office on July 24, 2017. To elect the 14th President the Election Commission of India had asked political parties to submit nomination papers by June 28. Election will be held if there is more than one candidate. Several names, both from the BJP and the Congress-led opposition, have been doing the rounds in Delhi since early May.
Pranab Mukherjee, the first Bengalee (a Brahmin) ever to hold the post, was elected on July 2012 with the support of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). But with the centre-right National Democratic Alliance (NDA) sweeping into power in 2014 the stage is probably set for India to get a saffron brigade president who will uphold RSS's Hindutva.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel. On June 12, BJP chief Amit Shah formed a three-member committee to find a consensus candidate for the presidency after "consultations with all political parties". Earlier on May 26, led by Congress, 17 parties got together to form a 10-member sub-group to finalise their candidate for the presidency.
On June 19, BJP Parliamentary Board surprised everyone by announcing that Bihar governor Ram Nath Kovind, a Dalit leader, will be NDA's candidate for the presidency. LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi simply did not figure in Amit Shah's list of candidates. Modi-Amit led BJP is no longer the same party that one witnessed during AB Vajpayee's days. Shah said that BJP has informed opposition parties and PM Modi had spoken to Congress president Sonia Gandhi and former PM Manmohan Singh.
Ram Nath Kovind, a lawyer by profession, is a self-made man and comes from Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh. He joined BJP in 1991 and was president of BJP Dalit Morcha (1998-2002). He was elected twice to the Rajya Sabha (1994-2006) from UP. He became governor of Bihar in August 2015. Kovind is respected among political circles for his integrity and his abstemious way of life.
Many within the opposition find it difficult to oppose Kovind, because several parties are Dalit-based organisations, e.g. Samajwadi Party, BSP, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United). The cracks in the opposition camp became clear when Bihar CM Nitish Kumar (himself a Dalit) broke ranks and declared support for Kovind. However, putting up a brave face of unity the Congress and the Left declared that this election was an ideological battle against the Sangh Parivar to protect the ideals of the constitution.
The opposition waited for the NDA to make the first move. But they criticised the BJP for unilaterally nominating Kovind. On June 22, Sonia Gandhi, on behalf of the opposition, announced that Meira Kumar will be the opposition candidate for the Rashtrapati Bhavan. Obviously, UPA had no choice but to name a Dalit as its candidate, as a higher caste nominee would have been a non-starter.
Meira Kumar comes with overwhelming credentials. Daughter of late deputy prime minister Babu Jagjivan Ram, who was Congress's most influential Dalit leader, she joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1973. She was elected member of the Lok Sabha five times before becoming Speaker of the Lok Sabha in 2009. She was cabinet minister in Manmohan Singh's government from 2004-2009. Announcing her candidature, Ghulam Nabi Azad, leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha, said she was a "crusader for social justice".
The president will be indirectly elected by an electoral college composed of 776 MPs of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, and 4,114 Members of the Legislative Assembly from 31 state legislatures. In total there are 4,990 electors who will cast their secret ballots on July 17. The vote of each member carries a value in proportion to the population they represent. It is a complex calculation. However, the total weighted value adds up to 10,98,903. The candidate winning more than 50 percent of the total value will be declared the winner.
It will be a Dalit-versus-Dalit election. But this election is not about who has better credentials, or about religion or caste. Rather it is about vote bank politics, where numbers matter. The three political groupings are clear: the aligned parties of NDA and UPA, and the unaligned parties. Though unaligned parties have few votes, they will most likely support Kovind. As it stands now, after the state legislative elections, since 2014 the BJP-led NDA has gained a numerical advantage over the opposition. According to reports Kovind is likely to bag 62 percent votes, i.e. roughly 7 lakh value votes.
A shrewd BJP nominated Kovind as part of its overall political strategy. It has put the opposition in disarray and has ensured that its candidate will win the presidency. By nominating Kovind, BJP will now try to consolidate its Dalit support base and, more importantly, lure Dalit-based regional parties into the NDA fold before the next Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Unfortunately, UPA has not been able to keep its flock together.
The president of India holds largely a ceremonial post. Many think Kovind is a low-profile, uninspiring candidate, who is little known publicly. One wonders whether Kovind will be able to inspire confidence among the people about his capability of protecting the constitution's secular ideals and traditions.
Not to overlook another important upcoming election is that of the Vice President. Incumbent Mohammad Hamid Ansari retires on August 10, 2017. Election for the post will be held on August 5. Here, too, BJP will have the final say given the numbers it commands in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. The million rupee question is, will it be another Dalit, an upper caste Hindu, or a Muslim?
The result of the presidential election is a foregone conclusion. The first Dalit President of India was KR Narayanan (1997-2002). And India is set to get a second Dalit president at the sprawling Rashtrapati Bhavan on Raisina Hill.
The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.
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