Who will be second?

Donald Trump in his inaugural speech thundered that from now on it will be "America first". He went on to encourage Americans to "buy American and hire American". Trump supporters sporting the trademark red baseball caps watching the event cheered wildly. Many were horrified when they discovered that the headgears were made either in China, Vietnam or Bangladesh. Similar quality caps made in America were more expensive (USD 30) than those made abroad (USD 20). Naturally, supporters chose the cheaper version. So much for Trump's "buy American".

One cannot have any dispute with Trump's "America first" policy. But as the global order changes dramatically, can Trump make America first? As the contours of Trump's policies slowly emerge from his tweets, let us see whether he can put America first in global trade and commerce, or in foreign policy or socially within America.

Global commerce is based on an intricate set of rules arising out of multilateral treaties that made globalisation possible. The basic logic of globalisation is based on age-old theory of comparative advantage i.e. global division of labour (David Ricardo) that maximises consumers' utility.  How will Trump negotiate trade deals, which are based on non-zero-sum principles?

On the other hand, imposing high tax on imports from cheaper sources would raise the cost of living for Americans and diminish consumer utility. Walking out on TPP, NAFTA and blaming China will not bring back jobs to America, nor will the economic situation of American workers improve. Trump's "America first" is essentially a policy of protectionism. It is actually a recipe for trade wars, which he has already started with Mexico. No nation would knowingly become "second" to anyone.

On bringing back jobs, Trump seems unaware about the employment situation in America. Unemployment in America has been lowest since 2010 and stands at 4.7 percent (December 2016). One of the primary reasons of unemployment in US is the rapid development of technology and artificial intelligence. Menial jobs are being taken over by machines. Naturally, there are more blue-collar workers who support Trump and are looking for jobs; tech-savvy high paid white collar jobs seekers are fewer in number and are generally not unemployed.

There is a trend now that manufacturing, that had gone overseas to low-labour-cost locations, is returning to the developed countries, where factories will use robots rather than human workers. Trump may get manufacturing back to US, but he may not get the jobs back. Assuming Trump does get the jobs back, he will find it impossible to export higher priced American goods.

Coming to international politics, Trump has demonstrated appalling lack of understanding of world politics. He had promised to "shake the rust off America's foreign policy" with a self-interest approach to world affairs. He recalled 80 contract ambassadors, creating an unprecedented diplomatic isolation, and decided to cut funds to the United Nations. What is worrying is that he described NATO - the post-WWII military alliance that had contained the then Soviet Union and now Russia from menacing Europe - as "obsolete". Trump has castigated key allies as "free riders", who should pay more for US military protection. He has also threatened to tear off the Iran nuclear deal and provide staunch support to Israel. Building the wall with Mexico and demonising Muslims only reflects his xenophobic instincts.

Trump's isolationist policy will be a clear break from America's traditional bipartisan foreign policy - an abdication from its global role. In other words, America will cease to be the champion of freedom, human rights, democracy, and a committed warrior against climate change. He will also cut billions of dollars that go to different nations as aid for poverty eradication. Trump's isolationism will create a power vacuum that may incite wars in different parts of the globe, jeopardising world peace. Trump probably never heard of Franklin D. Roosevelt, who declared, "We cannot live alone, at peace; that our wellbeing is dependent on the well-being of other nations far away".

The sharply divided American polity felt embittered with Trump's inaugural speech laced with superlatives. There was rioting in Washington on Trump's inauguration day. The day after his swearing-in, there were massive protests from women groups across America and many cities around the world. Women activists outraged by Trump's rhetoric and misogynistic behaviour organised rallies to protest his positions on women, immigrants, Muslims, the disabled and environmentalists. Repeal of Obamacare has added 20 million to that group. Protests across America continue.

Trump's obscurantism becomes evident when he talks about illegal voting, knowing well that his populism is not based on popular votes. After vilifying the political class and media, it is unlikely that Trump can govern without stiff challenges from the administration. He moved fast, and within the first week in office issued Executive Orders on several controversial issues, stunning the world. Orders not based on consultations with his senior advisors or facts. He has taken Congress' approval of his decisions for granted, as the Republicans have majority in both Houses. But challenges from Republican leaders, who opposed his nomination, and 60 Congressmen, who boycotted his inauguration, will be formidable. More importantly, can Trump unite the deeply frayed American society, which is known as the melting pot of diverse cultures?

According to some news reports, the effort to impeach Trump is already underway. Two advocacy groups 'Free Speech for People' and 'Roots Action' are hinging their case on Trump's financial impropriety, from owning luxury hotels and golf course, while in office as president. The embattled media will no doubt collude with this movement to pull him down.

Trump comes with a baggage of conflicts, scandals and a vindictive mindset to change the status quo in Washington. It would be interesting to watch how Trump along with his hawkish cabinet makes a pig's breakfast of democracy and the presidency, and makes America "second".

The writer is a former ambassador and secretary.