The culture of patronage politics that has devastated our nation over the years—fostering corruption, undermining meritocracy, and weakening institutions—begins at grassroots with the capture of public contracts and extortion by political thugs, and culminates with systemic regulatory capture by vested interest groups, all of which serves as an incentive for them to keep working for the party in power. This corrupt cycle seems to have begun again after a brief pause caused by the July-August mass uprising, with the regime change only changing the thugs and their cohorts.  

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Reforms needed in political parties and the electoral process in Bangladesh

Over the past two-three weeks, we have had a number of reports on how BNP-linked leaders and activists, civil servants, and professional groups have been trying to establish control in various sectors. This suggests that patronage politics may continue to be around even after a political government returns to power, unless political and institutional reforms are undertaken to prevent it. This is deeply alarming.

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Stop extortion in transport sector

The latest example has its setting in Nagar Bhaban, which houses the headquarters of Dhaka South City Corporation (DSCC). According to a report by Prothom Alo, BNP-affiliated activists and employees have been trying to establish their dominance through a mix of showdowns, intimidation, assaults, and even extortion, creating a tense atmosphere there. They have their eyes on proceeds and contracts/leasing from various public works, projects, and markets run under the DSCC. Recently, a contractor's representative was beaten over the submission of a tender. Five high-ranking officials were also harassed, and one even beaten publicly. Promotions and placements of officials are also being controlled.

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Health sector needs attention on an urgent basis

Prothom Alo has earlier reported how BNP-linked individuals forcibly took control of the Shimulia ferry terminal, fish market, and trawler docks in Munshiganj's Louhajanj upazila by allegedly threatening and assaulting legitimate leaseholders. They have established a lucrative extortion racket there, collecting hundreds of thousands of taka daily. We have heard of a similar capture of many other terminals and markets, transport hubs and associations, footpaths, slums, and such public spaces that were previously controlled by or leased out to Awami League-linked leaders.

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Govt must restore discipline in civil administration

The question is, what is BNP doing about it? Officially, the party remains committed to preventing such exploitations. Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman on Thursday issued a warning saying that there is no place for criminals and miscreants in the party. Another top leader has been more specific, vowing stern consequences for those indulging in extortion and illegal capture of the public sector. But hardly anything has come of these warnings yet. This means at least two things: either this message is not being delivered strongly enough to grassroots leaders and activists, through swift punitive actions to convey the seriousness of the message, or the party, beyond public condemnations, is still not serious enough about it.

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Extortion at slums, footpaths must stop

Both scenarios are equally concerning. We urge the BNP leadership to take action matching its strong words. It must prevent its grassroots leaders, professional groups or anyone exploiting its name to establish dominance through exemplary punishment. As the leading party in the country now, BNP has a duty to not just support but also actively take part in the reforms being envisioned by the students and people that toppled the Awami League government. It must help do away with the political culture of yesteryears that has brought nothing but misery for the country.

However, we also need institutional reforms to dismantle this entrenched culture, and for that, comprehensive actions from the interim government are essential.

That the BNP chief Khaleda Zia would not be directly involved in her party's activities or politics has been a moot point since February 2018, when she was jailed on corruption charges. BNP's failed movement to release Khaleda from jail seemed to further ensure that her days in politics had indeed come to an end – although the matter has made headlines recently, thanks to the contradictory comments made by the ruling Awami League leaders. With the next parliamentary election less than a year away, the matter has understandably gained much attention.

Khaleda Zia's legal rights notwithstanding, the BNP, which is effectively the main opposition camp in Bangladesh, smells a rat in all this. Party insiders suggest that the ruling party is intentionally reviving the issue as a topic of debate. The ruling party leaders, on their part, counter that they have no intention of bringing the issue to the fore, but have just explained what is written in the executive order on the basis of which the 77-year-old BNP chief walked out from jail on health grounds.

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Debate if Khaleda can do Politics: Her health more pressing question

The debate on whether Khaleda could come back to politics began when senior Awami League lawmaker Sheikh Fazlul Karim Selim said on January 26 that she had been released from prison "with an undertaking" not to get involved in politics. It took a new turn when Law Minister Anisul Huq and Agriculture Minister Abdur Razzaque said she could indeed make a comeback to the country's political scene, but not contest elections, only to be countered by Information Minister Hasan Mahmud and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader.

Amid this debate, the BNP has decided to be extra cautious. With the election round the corner, any mistake could cost them dearly as the party has been out of power for three consecutive terms. In the last two elections, they took different approaches that brought them the same outcome: nothing.

There are at least four possible scenarios for which the BNP suspects the Awami League has intentionally revived the Khaleda Zia issue.

First, the BNP has been rather successful in their street campaign to push its 10-point charter of demands, including a general election under a non-partisan interim administration. Many were sceptical about the party's organisational strength to wage any such campaign. Many even mocked the party for thinking of a campaign on the streets. But the BNP proved everyone wrong and has been running a successful campaign with wide public support, challenging the ruling party with huge rallies. The recent discussion about Khaleda, according to BNP insiders, is to throw the party off its game; the street campaign will be defused as leaders would get busy talking about the party chief.

Second, there is a "pressure" on the government to hold an inclusive and credible election. Without the participation of the opposition BNP, the next election would not be an inclusive one. So, the issue of Khaleda's engagement in active politics could be a ploy to get the BNP to come to the table for talks.

Third, the party fears that if Khaleda Zia becomes active in politics, the government may suspend the executive order that allowed the former premier to get out of jail. The government might claim that since Khaleda is active in politics, she must be in good health, and hence must go back to jail.

Fourth, since Khaleda has been in jail, her elder son and the party's Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman has been at the helm of the party. The current campaign has also been taking place under his leadership. Those who don't like Tarique's leadership within the BNP, however, have no option but to go along.

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Protest Programmes: BNP plans to get back momentum

The party, so long as it is under Tarique's leadership, is adamant about not joining the polls under the Sheikh Hasina government. So, if that section of leaders brought Khaleda back to politics, it would create enough of a buzz for the old guards to rally around the former prime minister. That would challenge Tarique's leadership within the party and, at the same time, it would be possible to send Khaleda back to jail, and split the party and bring a section of the party to the election to make it inclusive.

Whatever the case may be, the BNP leadership has decided to remain quiet for now. What is almost certain, however, is that in politics, one does not get a second chance to seize the initiative. And the BNP appears to have lost its chance. The party leaders could well have tested the waters with a countermove soon after the law and agriculture ministers' comments. What if they had mentioned that Khaleda would speak to the press shortly? Or that she would address a public meeting remotely from her home? What would have happened? At best, she would have had half an hour that would be the most covered and most watched news event in quite some time. At worst, she would be sent to jail and the BNP would have another reason to take to the streets with a stronger resolve for the 10-point demand. What is certain is that it would have tested the ruling Awami League's sincerity or resolve.

The BNP's current risk-averse behaviour is not conducive to running a successful campaign. Electoral politics needs quite a lot more pluck.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

The January election has been the centre of attention for well over a year now. Everyone was curious how this edition would eventually pan out, especially whether BNP would finally be able to pressure the government into forming a nonpartisan election-time government, which is difficult, if not impossible. Some were just excited about the possibility of voting and it actually counting, unlike the last two elections. However, with BNP's boycott confirmed and seats distributed among Awami League's alliance, the results are almost a foregone conclusion.

Brig Gen (retd) M Sakhawat Hussain, former election commissioner, said this election is essentially a quest for an opposition party (read opposition in parliament). Although 27 parties are contesting in the polls, the search for a viable opposition remains the most prominent feature. The situation is so obvious that even someone without much political insight can predict that the ruling AL will form the next government with an absolute majority.

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Youth depression is a symptom of broader societal malaise

So, when the results are a foregone conclusion and winners are already known, the election has little significance. The results are predictable as the elections will be held under a range of restrictions.

The restrictions are an important issue here. The Election Commission asked the government to take measures so that no political programmes, other than for electioneering, can be held after December 18. In a letter sent to the home ministry, the EC said parties should be stopped from holding rallies and other public events that may "obstruct the election process and discourage people from casting their votes." The measures should be in place till after the election on January 7, said the letter, addressed to the senior secretary of the Public Security Division.

It is the EC's role to ensure a congenial atmosphere for people to cast their votes freely. But the way the commission is stopping the activities of political parties is merely a bid to hide its failure through other means. This type of action had not been taken by any EC, not even by the 2014 Rakib commission. But this is not unexpected, as the commission itself announced the election schedule amid high security and beefed up police protection, with the deployment of armoured personnel carriers and water cannons.

Basically, this level of security at the EC betrays the election's true nature and how congenial the prevailing atmosphere is. True, BNP and other opposition parties are enforcing hartals and blockades, demanding a nonpartisan interim government. But the political opposition is fully within its rights to demand and campaign to oust the government. Obviously, opposition parties will not support the government when elections come around.

But for the EC to also act as an extension of the political government and bar political programmes that might "discourage people from voting" betrays its inherently nonpartisan design. Holding rallies is a fundamental right not just of a political party but also of individuals, a right that should not be tainted with equivocations or conditions, or intermitted because of "special circumstances." 

Not even the home ministry can lawfully abide by the commission's request. Just like casting votes is a right, so is not casting it. And so is waging a peaceful campaign to convince people not to vote at all. Since there is no "no vote" option, as there was in 2008, citizens may not feel compelled to vote. Thus, any campaign to discourage people from voting is as lawful as the urging people to vote for a certain candidate.

To complicate this further, in a television interview, ruling party leader and agriculture minister Abdur Razzaque said BNP received a number of generous offers. The party was even told that all its leaders would be released from jail overnight if it decides to join the January 7 election. 

Distancing the ruling party from Razzaque's comments, AL general secretary Obaidul Quader, the very next day, said the remarks were not of AL's but that of the minister's alone. On the same day, Razzaque said, "I think what I said, I did not say anything wrong, not a bit. The statement is correct." 

For a long time, BNP leaders have been accusing the government of politicising the legal system and imprisoning its activists and members illegally. Razzaque's statements only vindicate what BNP has been claiming all this time.

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Turn candidates' halafnama into amalnama

As BNP is not contesting the polls, it will try to make the election controversial, demonstrating the loopholes and deficiencies. And towards that end, the opposition parties must give a big thanks to Razzaque and the Election Commission, as they are doing the opposition's work, making it easier to illustrate that the system is so tainted that an election under Awami League would never be fair. 

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina already said that BNP is plotting to create a famine in the country, after realising that it won't be able to thwart the upcoming election, and perhaps realising that tough times are coming a few months down the line. We are hopeful that under Hasina's iron-handed leadership, there will be no such famine in the country. But it appears there is another kind of crisis under her watch—a 10-year drought of proper elections, a drought that won't let up soon, it appears.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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Coming a year before the general election, and nearly a year after the formation of the incumbent Election Commission, it is natural that the six by-polls held Wednesday would be viewed against the wider political backdrop. It was, therefore, frustrating to know how little things have changed, despite the relative lack of violence, which would have been something to look out for under different circumstances. It's quite evident now that any changes, or promises of changes, made over the past year or so only cemented the status quo, which doesn't bode well for our electoral future.

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Calling the by-polls 'free and fair' dims hope for 2024

If we're to pick a word to summarise the by-polls, it would be "absence" – absence of voters, absence of interest from the wider society, absence of strong safeguards against irregularities, absence of main opposition BNP, whose lawmakers' resignation from parliament had led to the by-polls. Voter turnout was poor in all the six constituencies. As per an estimate, only about 28 percent of voters showed up, in a trend that has been persistent throughout all local elections and by-polls held over the last few years. The predictable nature of election outcomes, and the lack of trust about the neutrality of responsible state departments, seem to have caused ennui and despair among the people.

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Two by-polls, 29 years apart – yet so similar?

It seems almost futile to ask why the Election Commission is failing to address voter apathy despite repeated appeals from election observers. The EC, after the latest by-polls, again stuck to its "peaceful and well-organised" narrative, even though we have received reports of various election-related irregularities from a number of constituencies. The EC's failure to recognise that the mere appearance of elections is not enough is really alarming. We need fair and participatory elections. And we need the EC to restore the trust of all voters and opposition parties alike.

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Will pre-election politics remain peaceful or become violent?

Another major concern about the by-polls is the "disappearance" of the main rival of the eventual winner in the Brahmanbaria-2 by-poll. This by-poll – which saw a voter turnout of less than 16 percent, the lowest of all constituencies – has been in the news ever since the winner, expelled BNP leader Abdus Sattar Bhuiyan, was backed by the ruling Awami League, which didn't field a candidate there. Abu Asif Ahmed, an independent candidate, has been missing for about a week now. Which makes us wonder: why is nothing being done to find him? What message does it send to the political opponents of the ruling party? And how long will the EC refuse to address the concerns of the opposition parties?

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Is the EC fighting an unwinnable war?

The culture of fear, distrust and criminality that still plagues our electoral system must be removed, and the ruling party must play a leading role in this. Lack of violence in one election means nothing given how political violence and repression continue to occur in every other sphere. If anything, the recent by-polls have shown that we have remained stuck in the same spot for too long, and the authorities must allow genuine reforms to break this status quo. They must help create a level playing field for all parties, and restore public trust in the function of the electoral system.

This week marks one year of the incumbent Election Commission (EC) in office, which also coincided with the National Voters' Day. Far from being an occasion for celebration, however, the reigning mood appears to be one of trepidation, with the general election less than a year away. The biggest worry is, will people again be denied the opportunity to exercise their franchise? As things stand, it seems unlikely that the EC will succeed in holding free and fair elections. Despite all the talk of creating a level playing field for the political parties, so far, it has failed to make any progress in that respect. The ruling Awami League has routinely gotten away with obstructing political programmes held by BNP in the most blatant of ways.

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EC in second year must do a better job

While demands made by the ruling party have been given priority over the concerns expressed by the opposition – for example, over the use of electronic voting machines (EVMs) – another factor that is of great concern is the negligible involvement of voters in the election process. Tussles between the main political parties have dominated the election narrative ever since this EC took over a year ago, just like they did during the tenures of the previous two ECs. And the role and space for voters have continued to shrink to historic lows. The appalling voter turnout in recent local elections and parliamentary by-polls illustrated the lack of confidence in the EC's ability – partly due to the partisan role of the administration and partly due to its own unwillingness to take firm action – to oversee a fair transfer of power. That, of course, should come as no surprise after what happened during the last two general elections of 2014 and 2018.

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AL needs to hold accountable its members

Besides the endless political controversies, harassment and intimidation of voters, denying them the chance to vote for their preferred candidates and, in some cases, forcing them to vote for specific candidates, fraudulent voting in secret booths, ballot-box stuffing, and many other irregularities during the last two elections have all but destroyed our democratic process, as well as voters' willingness to participate in such farcical exercises. Unfortunately, despite initial promise, the current EC has been unable to reverse that perception with its questionable handling of election-related irregularities. Many have rightly raised the question that if the EC cannot control the administration and law enforcement personnel during local elections, what hope does it have of doing so during the general elections where the stakes are much higher?

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Attacks on BNP are condemnable

The EC itself has done little to alleviate such concerns. And the recent statement by the chief election commissioner – that political parties should participate in the election of their own volition, as the EC cannot do anything more to persuade them – is deeply worrying. How can the EC expect that when the conditions it has created so far are nowhere near satisfactory? For the sake of our democracy – or whatever is left of it anyway – the EC must do more to fulfil its constitutional mandate. It must ensure that power is returned to the people after two controversial and largely non-participatory elections.