Vladimir Lenin, after all, was right. Sometimes, there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. Glory to the martyrs and vanguards of Bangladesh who made it to a possible democracy once more!

In Bangladesh, August is apparently a month when decades happen. Karl Marx famously said, "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce." If the fall of the BAKSAL (Bangladesh Krishak Sramik Awami League) regime in August 1975 was a tragedy, the boisterous exit of the regime this August is a repetition, this time as a farce. The free fall of the regime is a relief for many; however, there are also darker clouds around in the horizon.

The odds are no less apparent. One of these concerns India, the nation-state's largest neighbour. The facts around the number one superpower, the US, are another concern. But I can't deal with the second topic in this space. Let me rather stay with only India today.

To some, the events of July-August, for all their valour and glory may tell the same old story. But it is not exactly a void in which they disgorge.

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Hasina falls, flees

The coup d'état of 1975 was organised clandestinely. It was a civilian-military combined effort. There is good evidence that it was sustained by a Western power. The current conjuncture seems to involve a broad coalition of radical forces led by university students, sustained by the support of a cross-section of civil society, political parties and the so-called international community. The fallout now is more uncertain than ever, at least compared to what it was a half century earlier.

The Awami League regime in 1975 under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman had gone berserk with its one nation one leader "mantra". In 2024, the daughter's regime only went wilder with its sheer ruthlessness. History repeated itself.

It is perhaps too early to say what awaits us even in the not-too-distant future. A doubt pops up, nevertheless. What is the nature of the August 5 revolution? Is it a popular revolution like the French Revolution flying the banner of equality, human dignity, and social justice? Or is it to prove a coup d'etat of sorts, an 18th Brumaire of civil society, midwifed by the "international community", tailored by the armed forces? How different is it going to be from the events of January 11, 2007, events welcomed by the country's biggest neighbour, India? We hardly learn from history. That seems to be the only takeaway from history's department stores.

One does not choose from an empty set. Not a neighbour, at any rate. Nations act, as everyone knows, not as philanthropists or cynics but in their own best interest. Did Bangladesh's inevitable neighbour follow even a rule of its own best interest in underscoring the dynastic autocracy in Bangladesh? Was that the best option it had had? Will it learn a lesson, in all candour, this turnaround? These are questions best left to political pundits in India and beyond.

For us, citizens and denizens of Bangladesh, it is more of a single-payer option. India's unabashed selfishness in promoting a regime that clearly violated all rules of liberal democracy proves highly short-sighted, more now than ever.

What alternatives did India have to choose from is not apparent, or not well-known in any case. But it may even be non-transparent. In 1975, India blatantly ignored its lower riparian neighbour in claiming the Ganga-Padma as a virtually all-India domestic watercourse. That it is an international river, it apparently forgot then. India's stance on other watercourses changed little since then. The waters of the Teesta and many other common international rivers don't flow quietly anymore.

Border killings on a rhythmic scale are not simply a mystic symbol of India's political muscle but of its myopic nature. It is a bizarre thing: "India's Bangladesh Problem," as one pundit called it. Termites, they call their unhandsome neighbours.

India's China obsession, at least ever since her war with China in 1962, could have misled it to its Bangladesh policy. But a people who didn't put up with Pakistan's proto-colonial repressive regime of two and a half decades can hardly be expected (let alone taken for granted) to welcome such a proverbial "subsidiary alliance" as India desires to perpetrate on Bangladesh.

The latest regime change in the wake of a popular mass uprising should provide an occasion to rethink future relations between the two sovereign neighbours in South Asia, adorned by the common historical legacy of many centuries.

The immiseration of one neighbour for the benefit of the other can only be sustained by such regimes as the just fallen one in Bangladesh. India is a habitat, nay a breeding ground, of proverbial wise men. I am sure they will not be deluded by dreams of "Akhand Hindustan". That simply will not work.

The regime change of August 2024 may also provide an occasion to reflect on the question of national identity, a question the think tanks of national security (or regional imperialism if you like) can only ignore at their own peril.

Let history not repeat a second tragedy. The regime change in Dhaka, apparently, will enjoy the blessings of the "international community". But it is unlikely to work well if India does not think today what forces of circumstances will force it to think tomorrow.

India's best interest may perhaps lie in strengthening a new democracy in Bangladesh. At any rate, not obstructing democratic aspirations of a new generation in its eastward neighbourhood is the key point.

Dr Salimullah Khan is professor of general education at the University of Liberal Arts.

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August 5 was a historic day for Bangladesh for more reasons than one. The Awami League (AL), the party whose cause was a cornerstone in Bangladesh's history, was ousted by the masses.

Since independence, political turmoil has been part of narratives closely related to Bangladesh. One of the factors which worked in the AL's favour, from the time the party assumed responsibility in 2009, was that it was regarded as the most progressive and liberal party to have gained power following liberation. At that point in time, AL's values struck a chord with the secular middle-class Bangladeshi. The preceding regimes association with elements such as the military, fundamentalism, and state-centric politics aided in this regard.

Fast forward to 2024, and one finds that the AL-led 14-party alliance's rule is being labelled "fascist."

The AL regime has been somewhat of a conundrum. The Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2041 (PP 2041), which was published in 2020, envisioned to build on economic advancements and enhance the lives of people. The AL accommodated more public-private partnerships within the media world than any other party before and oversaw the widespread introductions of leading social media websites such as Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram. Indeed, the regime looked outwards and allowed creative media productions to be released, which did not always comply with the more conservative National Broadcast Policy of 2014. Accordingly, the party is largely responsible for digitalising a new generation of Bangladeshis, many of whom have smartphones and global aspirations today and took to the streets during the recent protests. Student coordinators such as Nahid Islam and Asif Mahmud are surely part of that generation and are, in fact, products of "Digital Bangladesh."

"Digital Bangladesh" was a pillar that supported the party's return to the centre in 2009 and represented its defiance of right-wing politics. AL's reformist approaches resonated with the masses in the context of globalisation and the interrelatedness of international networks in the 21st century. Their alliance with left-wing parties enabled the AL to stay in power and inspire many in the country. But, as it has transpired, the 14-party alliance seems to have paved the way for more dreams than stairs to reach those ambitions.

The recent movement portrayed the angst and frustration of the people from various sectors in Bangladesh, including journalism. The protests that began in the first week of July should be credited for capturing on-the-ground reactions. The mass killings, detentions, disappearances and violence against unarmed protestors that took place during this movement truly called into question the ethos of AL's political mandate. Over 400 people have lost their lives during the quota reform movement between July 16 and August 4, with some claiming that the number may well be understated. It has also been put forward that hospital records have been tampered with and bodies hidden, further putting into question just how many people have sacrificed their lives to bring an end to AL's rule.

Students have always been integral to the political narrative of Bangladesh. The fall of the Ershad regime was not brought about only by workers, but students as well, who endeavoured to take the nation forward on the path of democracy. Students again played their part in 2008 and 2013, when the Shahbagh Protests signalled their support for secular and not communal politics. In 2024, students took a stance once against the fascist practices of the Awami regime.

The tragic reality is that the AL committed to preserving democracy in the country, but backed the said promise by fascist means. The quota reform movement, which eventually led to the AL government's end, stemmed from opposition to fascist practices which often granted AL supporters, activists, and leaders the license to terrorise communities around the country. Throughout its rule, the former ruling party publicly branded opposition parties, such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and its allies as being fundamentalist and in conflict with the progressive agenda of the party.

While AL's statement may well be true when considering the realities of grassroots politics and the history of BNP and its allies, the Awami League's ideology also correlated with its globalist persuasions. The AL attained success in this sphere and was able to, for a period since 2009, be the flagbearer of the identity of the modern Bangladeshi. But, at present the premise of AL is being questioned and it remains to be seen how that plays out.

In essence, what the masses including the youths of Bangladesh have conveyed through this movement is that they are averse to right-wing politics in general, and both AL and BNP are considered part of that category today. This is very important to consider as we eventually transition to political-administrative rule again. Only time will tell whether progressive politics really do see the light of day in Bangladesh and who will be the leading stakeholders of the future. Meanwhile, the appointment of Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus as the chief of the interim government seems to be a step in the right direction.        

Nihad Nowsher works in business development.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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Awami League President and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today announced her party's polls manifesto for the 2024 national election, vowing to build a developed, prosperous and Smart Bangladesh by 2041.

"Bangladesh will be established as a high-middle-income country by 2031 and a developed, prosperous, smart one by 2041 by the Bangladesh Awami League, the bearer of the spirit of the Liberation War, if the people once again allow us to serve them by voting for the boat, the AL's electoral symbol," she said.

The premier said if the people of the country vote for the AL, her party will give them development, peace, and prosperity.

The AL chief made the remarks after unveiling her party's election manifesto at a city hotel this morning, just 10 days before the 12th parliamentary election slated for January 7.

The slogan of the AL's election manifesto is "Smart Bangladesh where Development Shines, Accelerating Employment".

The manifesto has given priorities to 11 issues.

In the manifesto, the AL vowed to show zero tolerance against corruption and terrorism, alleviate poverty, create employment, and ensure service-oriented and accountable administration.

The AL manifesto also put greater focus on infrastructure development, freedom of press and the practice of transparency, accountability, good governance as well as strengthened democratic values in all aspects of state management.

It, as well, promised to be tougher against money launderers, to eradicate bribery and corruption at all levels of the state and society, to establish a universal health system, and introduce health insurance.

"We are responsible for all the mistakes during the last 15 years ... Success is yours. Look at our mistakes with a forgiving eye. We promise to learn from past mistakes and conduct future activities according to your expectations," she said.

Right now, Bangladesh is standing in a transitional period and the country is going to join the ranks of developing countries from the list of least developed countries, she said, adding that this transition is an honour on the one hand and a huge challenge on the other.

"The government to be formed by the January 7 election must have the capacity to face this challenge. Only the Awami League can face this challenge and take the country to new heights," she said.

Looking forward to the 12th election, Sheikh Hasina said they have once again appeared before the countrymen with the election manifesto of Bangladesh Awami League.

"As a continuation of the past, this time, we have prepared an implementable election manifesto by setting specific targets. The continuity of the long-term action plans announced in the 2008, 2014, and 2018 election manifestos has also been maintained in the 12th election manifesto," she said.

The AL chief said they will not claim that they have always been a hundred percent successful in running the government despite sincerity and devotion.

She continued: "Awami League does not believe in the politics of words. We do what we say. The implementation of election manifestos of 2008, 2014, and 2018 is proof of that."

But at times, she said man-made, natural, and global obstacles slowed down Bangladesh's progress, adding that during 2013-16, they had to move forward by confronting the attempts of BNP-Jamaat to spread terrorism and militancy.

Since 2009, they had to deal with several natural disasters while the biggest blow came in 2020 when the global coronavirus pandemic broke out, Sheikh Hasina said, adding that the pandemic devastated economies and health systems around the entire world.

"Our government has successfully handled this terrible pandemic of the 21st century and kept the wheels of the economy running," she said.

However, as soon as the pressure of the coronavirus pandemic stopped, first, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, and this year the Israel-Palestine war started, she added.

The sanction and counter-sanction against each other have thrown the world economy into turmoil and the least developed and developing countries like Bangladesh are being forced to import products at higher prices, she continued.
The depreciation of the domestic currency has led to an increase in inflation, which has an impact on commodity prices and people's lives, the premier said.

"Several times, despite multifaceted and all-out efforts, we have not been able to curb the rise in prices of daily necessities. This problem is not only for our country, but this problem is also for all rich and poor countries," she said.
However, "We are trying to reduce the plight of the lower and lower-middle class people through various initiatives, including expanding social safety net coverage. We hope that we can overcome this obstacle very soon, In Sha Allah," she added.

Whenever the election comes, the AL chief said an anti-liberation, anti-Bangladesh, and anti-development clique becomes active with a leap of conspiracy.

"They enter the field by using tricks or vote rigging or through the back door to come to power. If they become unsuccessful, they jump on the people to take revenge," she said.

She went on saying that the anti-liberation force wants to intimidate the public through arson attack, burning of vehicle, bombing, sabotage, or terrorist activities.

"This time, there was no exception. This time, they are also making conspiracies from abroad. Realising that they will not get the people's mandate, they have already indulged in terrorist activities," she said.

In the name of the hartal-blockade, the premier said that vehicles are being burnt, people are being killed, railway lines are being rooted up, and various vandalisms are being carried out continuously.

"The charred bodies of the mother and child have deeply shaken everyone's conscience. Such heinous acts can no longer be tolerated. Without getting the response to the people, mercenary forces are continuing this vandalism and damaging the vehicles," she said.

The people of this country will never let them fulfill their dream of disrupting the election through terrorism, she continued.

"As you resisted them in 2013-2016, let us collectively defend them this time. This anti-independence, anti-development vulture party will never be able to wound Bangladesh with their poisonous teeth and claws - let's take this oath in the month of victory," the AL chief said.

She reminded that this country's outstanding achievements- starting from establishing the rights to speak the mother tongue and achieving the motherland's independence, have come through the hands of the Awami League.

The AL president said Bangladesh has been transformed in the last 15 years as today's Bangladesh is by no means poverty-stricken or economically fragile.

"I can unequivocally say that today's Bangladesh is now a 'Changed Bangladesh.' Bangladesh is now a fast-paced country moving forward with its potential. Minor setbacks cannot hinder our economic progress today," she said.

AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader also spoke at the function.

Convener of the Election Manifesto Committee Dr Muhammad Abdur Razzaque gave the address of welcome.

Cabinet members, politicians, foreign diplomats, educationists, journalists and eminent personalities of the country were present.

Two video documentaries highlighting the journey of Bangladesh towards prosperity under the leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina were screened at the function.

The Awami League yesterday decided not to field party candidates in any local government polls as a measure to stop infighting between AL leaders.

The infighting worsened after the party decided to nominate candidates in the recently held national election and allowed their party colleagues to compete against them.

The new decision will be effective in the polls to Cumilla and Mymensingh city corporations, which are slated for March 9, said sources.

No candidates will get the party symbol "boat". 

The decision was made at an emergency meeting of AL Central Working Committee, the highest decision-making body of the party, at the Gono Bhaban. AL President Sheikh Hasina chaired the meeting.

The ruling party convened the meeting to discuss the way out of the intra-party feuds.

As the BNP and some other parties boycotted the polls, the party adopted a strategy to make the election appear participatory and to increase turnout. This ultimately led to violence between AL leaders in many places.

According to insiders, at the beginning of the meeting, Hasina asked party leaders to come up their recommendations on how to minimise the infighting and party's role in upcoming elections to upazila parishads, which will be held in phases. The polls are likely to begin in March.

AL Joint General Secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim started first with his proposal for not providing party electoral symbol in local government elections.

He also recommended holding extended meetings in the districts where AL's internal feuds are intense and said the party should take all-out measures so that the infighting does not intensify further, said sources.

Almost all other party leaders echoed Nasim.

Some of them also suggested that the government take stern action against the arsonists to stop the recurrence of arson attacks, said sources.

At the one stage of the meeting, Hasina, also the prime minister, brought up the US presidential election and said the presidential election between George W Bush and Al Gore was questionable, said meeting insiders.

She said Donald Trump also did not recognise Joe Biden's victory.

Those who are preaching good elections to Bangladesh are mum on the issues of the US presidential election, Hasina said, according to meeting sources.

At the end of the meeting, AL chief Hasina decided to take "boat" out of the local government polls.

The AL started fielding candidates for the local body polls with its electoral symbol "boat" from 2015 after five laws related to union parishads, upazila parishads, municipalities and city corporations were amended, allowing party-backed candidates in local government bodies.

The meeting also assigned eight divisional committees to meet the leaders of the districts where there are intra-party feuds. It also decided to hold extended meetings there to resolve the problem.

While briefing reporters about the outcome of the meeting, AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader said the party would not allocate "boat" to any candidates in upazila parishad elections.

He, however, said the final decision would be made at a joint meeting of party's local government and parliamentary nomination boards.

At the end of his two-day visit to Bangladesh, the UN human rights chief has sent a message that resonates in these challenging times: that justice must be fair, comprehensive, and aimed at breaking the cycle of violence that plagued the nation both before and after the ouster of the Awami League government. As Bangladesh initiates the process of establishing justice for those killed in the uprising, Volker Turk's emphasis on following due process and broadening the scope of justice to include victims of all killings and human rights violations is worth serious reflection in today's charged climate.

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Reclaiming judicial independence and the struggle for justice

The importance of justice for the killings of protesters and innocent bystanders during the uprising cannot be overstated. At the same time, the post-August 5 period also witnessed significant retaliatory violence as well as mob justice which demand investigation, too. It's essential to avoid the trap of selective justice, where certain victims are overlooked and charges weaponised against certain others. Since the formation of the interim government on August 8, at least 1,695 murder cases related to the uprising have been filed, many targeting politicians and businesspeople linked to the former regime. Referring to the concerns about dubious and politically motivated cases, Turk said, "We cannot have the filing of cases on charges that are not properly done; it is therefore extremely important to resolve this and [that] there is a commission set up precisely to address this issue."

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Some concerns about the proposed changes in international crimes tribunals

Turk also talked about other issues that deserve equal consideration, including compliance with international standards throughout the justice process, from investigation to trial to sentencing. The call for unbiased investigation is particularly relevant. Turk also proposed several measures that could prove pivotal in guiding Bangladesh towards stability and a more just society. He advocated for the UN Human Rights Office to set up a branch in Bangladesh to support the government in its reform drive. He called for the National Human Rights Commission to be independent and fully functional so that it can safeguard human rights more effectively. He also emphasised that women and minority groups should play a central role in the transition process.

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The indiscriminate arrests and murder charges

All such proposals deserve careful consideration not only to foster national healing and reconciliation but also to prevent a repeat of the abuses that have fractured the nation for so long.