Luck plays its part

It's a game of mathematics now.

The World Cup in Russia has reached an exciting phase. Except for eight teams, the fate of the rest hangs in the balance. Wins alone in the remaining group matches are no longer enough for teams to qualify into the round of 16. Complex mathematics comes into play. Permutations of points, goal difference, head-to-head records, fair play points or even the drawing of lots may decide their destinies.

The eight nations of Portugal, Spain, Russia, Uruguay, France, Croatia, Belgium and England are relieved, and eight others -- Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Peru, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Panama and Poland -- are packing their bags to catch a flight home.

The tournament's top favourites -- Brazil, Argentina and Germany -- are yet to make it to the next level. Eight spots are up for grabs, and one stumble or a better showing by also-rans can get any of these world giants out of this World Cup.

Tensions run high in three out of eight World Cup groups -- D (Croatia, Nigeria, Iceland and Argentina), E (Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia and Costa Rica) and F (Mexico, Germany, Sweden and South Korea). The race is wide open.

A few of the superstars sparkled, but most others are still a pale shadow of their famous selves. Stars shone, teams won: that's the story of the World Cup so far. Notwithstanding yesterday's missed penalty against Iran, Cristiano Ronaldo is the only superstar who showed no dip in the superb form he has been displaying for his club Real Madrid. For him, it was just a change of jersey from club to country. He started off with a hattrick against Spain and scored one goal in the next, against Morocco.

England striker Harry Kane topped the list of goal-scoring stars with 5. Romelu Lukaku (4) and Eden Hazard (2) spearheaded Belgium's exciting journey forward. Denis Cheryshev (3) of Russia, Diego Costa (3) of Spain, Ahmed Musa (2) of Nigeria, Luka Modric (2) of Croatia and Philippe Coutinho (2) of Brazil are among the goals.

But Argentina's greatest goal-machine Lionel Messi is still hibernating and Brazil's big hope Neymar not up to the mark yet.

So, for fans of this beautiful game, it's time to live with nerves frayed and keep fingers crossed for their big stars to come out firing on all cylinders!

As records go, Europe plays best on European soil. And in Russia, there is no exception to that yet. European nations are dominating and American countries struggling. Japan and Nigeria are however carrying the lights of Asia and Africa quite commendably.

England are the latest of the European countries going great guns with a thumping 6-1 win against Panama that included a hattrick, the third in their World Cup history, from Harry Kane. The mercurial skipper also struck twice in England's 2-1 victory in their opener against Tunisia, including a header in injury time.

This English side look completely different than that seen in Brazil fours back. In 2014, England, with survivors of its so-called Golden Generation in the team, bowed out from the group stage winless and blamed it all on the heat, particularly the humidity of the Amazonian jungle.

Those were older, more experienced and celebrity-obsessed. These are younger, hungrier and goal-obsessed. The second-youngest in Russia, England's players of below-26 demonstrated joyous display of togetherness in the sweltering heat of Nizhny Novgorod.

In my view, momentum is everything in football.

Fortunately for Gareth Southgate, his men picked the momentum at the start. Now the challenge is to keep the momentum going all the way. And England fans have every reason to be pumped up this time. Fifty-two years went by after the father of modern football won the cup in 1966.

The writer is former Sports Editor of The Daily Star

Borussia Dortmund teenager Christian Pulisic scored twice as the United States thrashed Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 6-0 on Friday to edge closer to a place in the final round of CONCACAF qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup.

A first-half flurry of goals from Bobby Wood, Matt Besler and Jozy Altidore effectively sealed a straightforward victory for Jurgen Klinsmann's side against the Caribbean minnows.

Rising star Pulisic added a fourth for the USA in the 71st minute shortly after coming on as a second-half substitute.

Pulisic, 17, then laid on the fifth for another substitute, Sacha Kljestan, in the 78th minute.

Pulisic completed the scoring with a confident finish in injury time to make it 6-0.

The win left the United States within touching distance of the "Hexagonal" final round of qualifiers.

Klinsmann's men would have been assured of qualification if Trinidad & Tobago had beaten Guatemala in the day's other Group C game.

However two goals from Carlos Ruiz -- including an 87th-minute equalizer -- secured a 2-2 draw for Guatemala in Port of Spain against the "Soca Warriors."

The result means the USA need a point in their final group game against Trinidad in Jacksonville, Florida on Tuesday to be certain of progressing to the later rounds.

The first goal came when Wood curled in a shot from the edge of the area on 28 minutes after good work from Altidore and Fabian Johnson.

Besler had celebrated the birth of his baby daughter just hours before kick-off, then marked the occasion with his first international goal on 32 minutes. 

Russia says it will take extraordinary measures to combat any terrorist threat when it hosts the World Cup next year, as its military campaign in Syria makes the country a prime target for jihadists.

A bombing on the metro in Saint Petersburg in April that left 15 people dead was among the recent high-profile terror attacks on Russian soil.

The fear of more attacks was heightened after seven people were stabbed in Siberia in August in an attack claimed by the Islamic State (IS) group, while the authorities have reported breaking up several jihadist cells across the country.

"There is a very real threat of an attack in Russia" during the World Cup, which runs from June 14 and July 15 2018, said Alexander Golts, an independent Russia expert specialising in security.

Russia has experienced a number terror attacks over the last 20 years and during two wars in Chechnya, but the threat has increased since Moscow's military intervention in Syria in September 2015 to support President Bashar al-Assad's regime, making it a priority IS target.

"The authorities say they have succeeded in destroying IS. But several thousand Russians have been taking part in (jihadist) conflicts and now they are beginning to return to Russia," Golts told AFP.

According to the Federal Security Service (FSB), about 2,900 Russian jihadists, most of them from the Muslim-majority Caucasus republics, have fought in Syria. Between 2,000 and 4,000 more fighters from Central Asia now live in Russia.

The world's most high profile sporting event, along with the Olympic Games, makes an ideal terrorist target.

- Threats against players -

Every day, dozens of calls to commit attacks during the tournament from IS propaganda organs are published via social networks. Many of these involve threats against players.

But Pascal Boniface, director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris, said these threats are put out "to attract attention".

There is a risk of terror at "any global sporting event which attracts cameras and those with a desire to make an impact".

Several months before the Winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort of Sochi in 2014, bomb attacks killed 34 people in Volgograd, also in southern Russia, and "we were very worried about attacks" during the event, Boniface said.

FSB director Alexander Bortnikov revealed last month that a number of planned attacks had been thwarted ahead of the World Cup warm-up event the Confederations Cup in June.

- Human rights concerns -

In 2016 Russia set up an international "working group" charged with overseeing safety at the World Cup and bringing together the security services of 32 countries, despite diplomatic tensions between Moscow and the West, Bortnikov said.

"Every country is sending delegations and the common cause of the fight against terrorists goes beyond any disagreement they might have," Boniface added.

Saint Petersburg police last week began deploying dogs trained to sniff out explosives on the underground network, while a list of sensitive areas which will be kept under particularly close watch -- including luxury hotels, training grounds and tourist areas of host cities -- was published.

Although the authorities remain tight lipped on the details of the World Cup security plan, deputy prime minister Vitaly Mutko has announced that at least 30 billion rubles (445 million euros, $512 million) will be spent by Russia in this area.

A decree concerning "strengthened security measures during the Confederations Cup and the World Cup" signed by President Vladimir Putin came into force this June and will be applied again from May 25 to July 25 next year.

The decree includes measures limiting the right to protest and curbing driving in the tournament's 11 host cities, as well as introducing no-fly zones and forbidding entering these cities by bus without a special permit.

Human Rights Watch said it was "impossible not to be concerned" by aspects of the increased safety measures.

"We have already seen the consequences of the presidential decree," its Russia researcher Yulia Gorbunova told AFP, pointing to the 33 people arbitrarily detained during the Confederations Cup.

"There are reasons to believe that during the World Cup (these restrictions) will be all the more severe," she said.

With Manuel Neuer confirmed as his new captain, Joachim Loew plans to blood Germany's next generation as part of his team's preparations to defend their World Cup title in Russia.

Germany's journey to the 2018 finals starts on Sunday at Oslo's Ullevaal Stadium in their opening qualifier against Norway.

Since winning the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, head coach Loew has lost five experienced veterans, each of whom made more than 100 appearances for Germany.

Philipp Lahm, Miroslav Klose, Per Mertesacker, Lukas Podolski and now Bastian Schweinsteiger, who bowed out in Wednesday's 2-0 friendly win over Finland, have all retired from international football.

With them went the collective experience of 604 caps and 152 goals.

But Germany's next crop of talent is knocking at the door.

Loew has said they will get their chance on the road to Russia, in forthcoming qualifiers and friendlies, plus next June's Confederations Cup, against the likes of Portugal, Mexico, Chile, Australia, New Zealand and hosts Russia.

Hoffenheim defender Niklas Suele made his debut against Finland while Schalke 04's Max Meyer and Bayer Leverkusen's Julian Brandt also started in Moenchengladbach.

All three are still only 20.

"They did well. You could see that we were taking a look at the future," Loew said following the Finland win.

"It was either their first game, or one of their first, and we'll be using games like that to give the players experience.

"That's how I'll most likely use the Confed Cup.

"I want to increase the prospects of the younger players. From now on, the door is wide open."

For now, Loew will take no risks with the starting line-up in Oslo, but Meyer and 21-year-old Bayern Munich defender Joshua Kimmich are expected to feature.

A 2-0 defeat away to Poland in October 2014 meant Germany lost their opening Euro 2016 qualifier.

Loew will want no repeat against Norway, who lost their warm-up friendly 1-0 to Belarus in Oslo on Wednesday.

"We will field a strong team. And we will win," he insisted.

Home qualifiers against Czech Republic and Northern Ireland, a friendly away to Italy and a trip to minnows San Marino will follow in October and November.