The day before the election, I asked my rickshaw puller on my way to work if he would be voting the next day or not. He told me he had voted in every single election since the 1990s, but that he wouldn't vote at this one. "There is only one contestant in this contest. What difference will my vote make?" he asked. He said his son and daughter, both of whom lived in Dhaka, had travelled to their village home to cast their votes. Their mother lived there by herself, and they had heard that those who didn't vote would face trouble in their village. As they didn't want their mother to face any harassment once the election was over, they went to their village to vote.

On my way back home from work, I asked another rickshaw puller the same question. He said he won't return to his village to vote as travelling is expensive. He said he had voted for Awami League in every single election till 2014. "Those who came to power on the back of my vote have snatched away my right to vote. What is the point of me voting anymore?" he asked. As he pulled away his rickshaw from the gate of my house, I heard him saying—perhaps to me or perhaps to himself—that he will not vote again.

On election day, I visited one of the biggest slums in Dhaka. During conversations with its dwellers, almost everyone asked the same question: "What's the point of this election?" Its winner has already been predetermined.

So, what's the point of this election?

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One more vote, one vote fewer: Why people will and won't go to polls

Firstly, it's so that those who are in power can continue being in power and claim they are doing so somewhat legitimately. Secondly, it is more for the geopolitical optics.

It is no secret that the ruling party has been under some pressure from powerful Western countries—especially the US—to not repeat what happened in the elections of 2014 (where 153 out of 300 seats were declared uncontested) or of 2018 (where "voting" largely took place the night before the election). Hence, the ruling party has been scrambling to place dummy candidates to contest seats against party-nominated candidates. And, just so it doesn't have to resort to substantial vote-rigging, Awami League has also been threatening and coercing voters to turn up at polling centres, with an aim of showing a reasonable percentage of voter turnout.

But, why? Well, according to Election Commissioner Anisur Rahman, there is a possibility that Bangladesh could face isolation from the world if the election were not free, fair, and credible. "If we can't make this election acceptable, our future would be uncertain," he said. So, the ruling party has to portray an "acceptable" voter turnout at this election to the rest of the world. Even the chief election commissioner admitted that there "is an international dimension" to the election, which "none can underestimate."

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The guilt that comes with voting at a farcical election

As of writing this article, it seems voter turnout will not exceed 50 percent even with some reports of vote-rigging. Will that be "acceptable" enough? And will it make up for the "repressive" environment—according to United Nations Special Rapporteur Clément Nyaletsossi Voule—that was created in the country in the run-up to the election? Even before election day, the election had been described as "a one-sided affair," "a one-woman show," and even an outright "farce" by the Western media. By engineering the percentage of voter turnout, can the ruling party legitimise the election to the Western world?

The answer to that question will not only impact the ruling party, but the future of Bangladesh as a whole. Given the economic cracks that have appeared in recent times, any damage in economic, trade, or even aid relations with Western countries in particular, would deal severe damage to our economic future/prospects. So, even though important Awami League leaders have been reassuring the people that everything will be fine once the election is over and that there will be no problems with other countries, given the hostile rhetoric that has also been coming out simultaneously from the ruling party camp, for the general public, it cannot be said for certain that the geopolitical games that Bangladesh finds itself in are now over.

On the flipside, the idea among the political class—in both the ruling and opposition camps—that outside powers will determine the political landscape in Bangladesh is, I believe, a mistaken one. Ordinary people in Bangladesh might not understand the intricacies of the geopolitical games that are afoot. However, they understand very well the political and economic realities facing them. Their very real struggles of not being able to vote in consecutive elections, and of not being able to afford three square meals a day, mean they are now stuck in an extremely difficult battle for survival—which our detached political class cannot even fathom.

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Political parties need to behave more responsibly towards the electorate

How will the ruling party deal with the geopolitical pressures, the jailing and persecution of thousands of opposition activists, and the discontent of the general public due to the extremes in corruption, mismanagement in governance, and outright looting of public wealth and national resources, all at the same time? The election, therefore, might not be the endgame after all—there are too many uncertainties that still lie ahead.

This absurd election has ended. But it has failed to provide any answers as to how the fundamental cracks and divisions in our society can be addressed, including the enormous inequalities—whether they be political, social, or economic—that have emerged, particularly as a result of the people losing their voting rights.

Eresh Omar Jamal is a journalist at The Daily Star. His X handle is @EreshOmarJamal

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

Bangladesh is once again at a crossroads. The country needs the upcoming parliamentary election to be a free, well-participated election to restore its credentials. It is time to choose our representatives again and to transfer not power, but responsibility, to them peacefully so that we can return to the task of self-governance. Are we ready for the task?

At the mature age of 52 and with no stable system of electoral governance and transfer of power in sight, Bangladesh is reeling under internal turmoil, external pressures, and an irresponsible and immature political leadership.

Our politics has been traumatic. After the return to democracy in 1991, our political journey towards parliamentary democracy over the past 32 years demonstrates behavioural patterns in ruling and opposing parties that have mired the possibilities of healthy politics for a culture of a "sane" society that could have been a green ground to grow and nurture democracy. Instead, it has been ruthlessly trampled upon, turning into a waste land where nothing but hatred can grow. Today, on the eve of our 12th parliamentary election, we witness an ongoing battle for the highest seat of governance where all decisions are made, with the parties convinced that if you cannot keep your grip on your streets, you are unseated!

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Can the judiciary be free from politicisation?

Based on these political premises, the streets are more important than the parliament, the kingsmen are more important than the judiciary, an army of sycophants and loyalists are far more important than voters!

So why should a political party elected to power build democratic institutions? It does not support the "street ideology." And why should a political party in opposition not do everything to obstruct the smooth functioning of parliament? Well, it does not comply with the "street dictum." They all choose the streets to be their seat of governance. Hence all political parties, big or small, have the same political ideology. And if you cannot join or support the skirmishing sides, it does not matter for whom you vote; you may not reach the polling booth, but some kind individual may make sure that you are not "disenfranchised." Isn't that nice? The system works. No one is left behind. Just like it happened in 2018.

There is no doubt that to win an election, we need to have "street wisdom," an endless flow of money, and an army of loyalists.

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Column by Mahfuz Anam: Poisoned rhetoric and public concerns

No one can beat the ruling party when it comes to street wisdom. With decades of experience, they are the maestro of street agitations – they have won many battles on the streets. The endless flow of money is no problem. The parliament is now at the centre of our business world and in the hands of our business tycoons. Free market policy allows them free access to our reserves. The problem of money has been solved. 

As for the growing loyalists, opposition parties provide an additional force. They break into splinter groups headed by "tribal chieftains" who are satisfied with a few crumbs from the pie. They form the much needed "trusted" opposition. That, too, is done.

And in all this, where does the Election Commission (EC) stand? With the Administration and Home still beyond its control and an RPO that reduces its powers, and an unrelenting political grip over its functioning, the EC is in a state of limbo – dangling in thin air, watching from above as the street fights continue.

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Will we see a free, fair election after all?

The street fights will take lives, as they have done in the past. It will hurt vulnerable voters and "those who do not belong." Fear of losing power and a backlash, and the existential fear of not getting to power, are tearing the political parties apart. All sides have to work to reduce fear in the others. The prognosis is the "coming of a new tragedy." 

But it need not be so if they leave the streets – if the parties come to the table to talk and concede on an all-party approach, as they did in 1991 and again in 2008. We, the tired people of Bangladesh, are waiting for our political parties to put behind an era of hatred and violence, and embrace compassion and forgiveness, so that this nation can move forward free from the prison of the past.

Sharmeen S Murshid is an election analyst and chief executive officer of Brotee, a civil society organisation.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

The Election Commission and Awami League seem to have started taking preparations for the coming national election.

The Jatiya Party, the main opposition in parliament, is also making preparations to participate on its own, not part of the AL-led alliance.

The AL and the JP are currently finalising their election manifestos and the lists of lawmaker nominees.

AL chief Sheikh Hasina started campaigning on August 2 in Rangpur by seeking votes. She asked the AL lawmakers to stay in their constituencies, make door-to-door visits to the constituents and quell feuds within the party.

To set an example, she even stayed at her Gopalganj-3 constituency for two days in July and met voters.

Almost all members of the ruling 14-party alliance are also getting ready for polls slated for January next year.

AL Joint General Secretary Mahbubul Alam Hanif told The Daily Star that the AL is completely focused on the 12th national election.

"We are taking all-out preparations for the election. We are meeting people, highlighting our government's achievements, collecting information to find the fittest nominees, organising rallies across the country, taking steps to keep grassroots united by resolving rifts, making door-to-door visits to woo voters, and drafting our manifesto," he said.

Meanwhile, the EC has redrawn 10 constituencies, registered two new political parties, updated the voters' list, and made a primary list of 42,350 polling centres.

Amendments to an electoral law have also been made.

Election Commissioner Brig Gen (retd) Ahsan Habib Khan said, "We are making preparations to hold a free, fair, acceptable and participatory election in line with our roadmap announced in September last year."

Political parties are presumably making their own plans and policies for their preparations, he told The Daily Star yesterday.

Election Commissioner Anisur Rahman at a programme in Kishoreganj yesterday said the schedule for the polls would be announced in November.

"The participation of all parties in the election does not depend on us. Parties are to decide individually if they want to take part in the polls. But we will create a conducive atmosphere for elections," he said.

The current parliament expires on January 29. According to the constitution, the national election must be held anytime during the final 90 days of the parliament's tenure. The 90-day countdown starts on November 1.

EC'S PREPARATIONS

The EC has approved 66 local observers to monitor the polls and invited more organisations to observe the elections. It is also at the final stage of changing the policy for approving international observers and journalists.

The procurement of election materials like transparent ballot boxes, seals for the ballot boxes, stamp pads, indelible ink markers, official seals, and marking seals will be completed between this month and November, EC officials said.

THE AL CAMPAIGNING

The ruling party's manifesto will highlight the government achievements. It will organise concerts in every district town to publicise the achievements.

Teams are being formed to run social media campaigns highlighting the achievements and "misrule during the BNP-Jamaat alliance".

The promise of a "Smart Bangladesh" by 2041 will also be prominent in its manifesto.

The AL has conducted several surveys to find suitable candidates and another survey is going on. It wants to make sure no disgruntled AL leader runs against the party nominees. The AL plans to field independent candidates so that the election appears participatory even if the BNP shuns it.

AL's top leaders are in talks with like-minded political parties to bring them under its fold and with other parties to get them to take part in the polls and make the election look participatory.

It has also had preliminary talks with allies over the share of seats in parliament.

"After the PM returns from the US, she will start campaigning across the country," said an AL praesidium member.

Hasina will inaugurate a number of mega projects before November to impress the voters.

An AL insider said, "An election-time government with a small number of cabinet members will likely be formed in the first half of November."

THE JP GETTING READY

The JP is asking its probable nominees to get ready for the election, according to sources.

It is looking for the best candidates in areas where there are not many supporters of the party. It believes that without a good number of MPs in parliament, the party will become weak, said a JP leader.

"We want to make the party vibrant through holding local councils," JP Chairman GM Quader told this newspaper.

"We will try our best to field candidates in all 300 constituencies," he added.

President of AL ally Workers Party of Bangladesh Rashed Khan Menon yesterday said, "We are collecting names of probable candidates from the districts." He said they were in discussion with AL over seat-sharing but no final decision has been made.

Bangladesh now has a new government, determined through an election held on January 7 that was described as "controversial" in well-known international press. As the results of the voting came out, several international media outlets likened Bangladesh to a budding one-party state, as more than 95 percent of the winners for the 298 seats are effectively from the ruling Awami League. Not to mention, the rest of the less than five percent—who are from Jatiyo Party and may pose in the new parliament as the opposition—was also "chosen" by Awami League as both parties negotiated not to confront each other in some seats.

When it became obvious in the months leading up to the polls that the major opposition political parties, including BNP, would not participate in the election without a non-partisan administration, all leading international bodies like the UN, the EU, and Western governments distanced themselves from sending full-fledged observer missions to the Bangladesh election. Such decisions are clear indicators that those major global bodies and democracies were convinced about the absence of the intention of authorities to hold a fully participatory election.

However, countries like Russia, China, India, and Japan sent their official teams of observers to monitor the polls. There were also some individuals from the US, the UK, Canada, Germany, Portugal, Australia, Malaysia, Nepal, and some other countries who came to Bangladesh as "independent" observers, according to Election Commission documents.

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Statements by the UN Human Rights Commission and some democratic governments following the announcement of the election results reflected their previous concerns over the credibility and legitimacy of a voting of this sort. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk warned that "the future of all Bangladeshis is at stake." The US Department of States spokesperson, Matthew Miller, said that they "share the view with other observers that these elections were not free or fair." A spokesperson of the UK government's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office said on the day after the election, "Democratic elections depend on credible, open, and fair competition. Respect for human rights, rule of law, and due process are essential elements of the democratic process. These standards were not consistently met during the election period."

However, echoing the monitors from nations like Russia and China, who declared the election as "fair, open and transparent," the so-called independent observers from some Western countries also found it "fair and transparent."

The overall coverage from Bangladeshi (and also Indian) media—which enjoys increasingly curtailed freedom—focused more on the positive reactions of the Western individual observers and portrayed them as "independent." The wording in some pro-government media reports even made those foreign individuals seem like the "official observers" of their respective countries. That prompted the Canadian High Commission in Dhaka to take to X (formerly Twitter) to clarify that the country had not deployed any observers to monitor Bangladesh's January 7 election. "Any individual who identifies as a Canadian observer is acting independently. Their views have not been endorsed by the Government of Canada," the High Commission said.

One of these individuals, Alexander B Gray from the United States, was quoted by local media as saying at a group press conference on January 8, "None of us have personally observed anything other than a fair, transparent, and accountable election in line with democratic norms, international standards, and Bangladesh's local circumstances." This is a starkly different observation from his country's official statement.

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What will happen to multi-party democracy in Bangladesh?

Finding this interesting, I delved deeper into exploring who these "independent" observers are. After all, we do have records of ruling party men hiring fake election observers during the 2018 general election, as reported by Reuters.

Before digging through the online records of the observers, we need to know more about the term "fake observer." According to the European Platform for Democratic Elections (EPDE), an EU-funded project that promotes citizen election observation across Europe, "Fake observation is politically biased international election observation. It is a form of political activity performed by international actors and aimed at advancing interests of politicians and political forces by imitating credible election monitoring during electoral processes."

The Declaration of Global Principles for Nonpartisan Election Observation and Monitoring by Citizen Organizations says: non-partisan observers are required to have credible and transparent methodologies for observing election processes. This seemingly is not the case for the "independent" observers of January 7. A release provided to reporters at a press meet in Dhaka by a group of nine observers led by Alexander Barton Gray, the CEO of the Oklahoma-based lobbying firm American Global Strategies (AGS), did not specify the methodology they'd followed to monitor the election before giving a sweeping verdict of fairness in the process.

Accepting funding, including for travel and/or accommodation, from any party involved in the electoral process is also an indicator of non-partisan observation. Media reports say that the Bangladesh government had sponsored accommodation for the observers it had invited.

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The Great Game will continue

Partisan or fake observers make personal and biased comments about their observations or conclusions to the media. This is exactly what happened with many of the so-called independent observers on Sunday. For example, Paulo Casaca, the founder and executive director of the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF), on at least two occasions while talking to the media implied that the opposition parties were involved in the Benapole Express arson incident of January 5 in Dhaka and also blamed previous election violence on them. "But the way to improve is not through violence, is not burning trains, is not destroying polling booths," were his words about improving the overall electoral environment.

In the recent past, Casaca's SADF was accused by EU Disinfo Lab, a Brussels-based disinformation research organisation, of facilitating a vast Indian disinformation campaign targeting China and Pakistan.

One of the observers, former US Congressman Jim Bates—who has been a controversial figure throughout his career and was accused of several instances of sexual harassment and for using bad checks to fund his election campaign in 1990—"found the election to be very peaceful, free, and fair." Bates' visit is apparently part of his offerings to the Bangladesh government as to lobbying "to engage the current congressmen and senators" in its favour, as discussed in a meeting with Bangladesh's ambassador in Washington in June 2021.

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A review of the 2024 electoral drama

Another observer was Nicholas Powell, the political editor of EU Reporter—a dubious website based in Brussels that was exposed in a Politico investigation as portraying itself as an independent media organisation while secretly facilitating political influence campaigns. In a now-deleted marketing video on YouTube, EU Reporter's narrator says: "Our business model is to offer political parties, businesses, NGOs, industry associations, financial institutions and governments the opportunity to use EU Reporter to influence the European political decision-making process by sponsoring coverage and the placement of positive news stories and editorial comment related to them."

A German observer named Volker Uwe Friedrich, founder and CEO of lobbying and consulting firm GBP International, previously visited Bangladesh to attend a conference organised by SAARC Human Rights Foundation, a dubious organisation linked with a ruling party MP that had hired fake observers during the 2018 election.

Another election monitor named Richard Semitego visited Bangladesh several times over the past years to meet government ministers and ruling party leaders, and even attended a local political gathering in 2021 in Sunamganj alongside Planning Minister MA Mannan.

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The guilt that comes with voting at a farcical election

Australian parliamentarian Shaoquett Moselmane, who was once investigated for his alleged involvement in a Chinese influence operation, met with Bangladesh government officials and Awami League leaders on several occasions. In November 2022, Moselmane moved a motion in the Legislative Council of New South Wales to celebrate the 76th birthday of Sheikh Hasina and highlight her government's successes.

None of the 11 individuals I searched about on the internet was representing any professional or renowned election observer organisation, two others turned out to be staff or owners of lobbying and consulting firms, while the last two and their credentials could not be traced online.

Qadaruddin Shishir is Bangladesh Fact Check Editor at AFP.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

We are deeply disappointed that what we feared has ultimately prevailed—an election timetable announced by the Election Commission (EC) in the glaring absence of a consensus among the major political parties over polls-time government. As the Awami League and its allies brought out celebratory processions all over the country, BNP and allies rejected the schedule, while the Left Democratic Alliance as well as the Gonotontro Moncho also denounced what they believe would be a sham of an election. Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Kazi Habibul Awal may well hope that the upcoming polls will be "free and fair, impartial, participatory… credible and praised at home and abroad," but we would be living in a fool's paradise if we believed that such a scenario is possible under these strained circumstances.

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Are the ‘ghost’ cases fooling anyone?

Following the controversial elections of 2014—in AL won 153 seats uncontested—and in 2018—in which widespread irregularities and ballot stuffing took place—there have been repeated calls at home as well as from outside to hold a credible election. The government, unfortunately, seems to believe that holding an election under any circumstances is a "win" for the ruling party, wilfully ignoring that another discredited election will do irreparable damage to its own image and destroy whatever remains of our democratic institutions and aspirations. In the lead-up to the election, when it should have demonstrated its commitment to the democratic process, including upholding the opposition's constitutional right to freedom of assembly, the Awami League chose the path of retribution, arresting over 10,000 BNP activists and leaders, many on false or trumped-up charges. These actions, alongside the incendiary rhetoric from the top leaders of the party, have foreclosed any possibility of a dialogue.

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Are we doomed to repeat past mistakes?

BNP, on the other hand, has also remained stubborn in its refusal to even attend a dialogue unless its one-point demand for the resignation of the government is met. Such an uncompromising stance, however legitimate the party may have felt its demand was, has not borne fruit and instead led it to a point of no return. At least 117 vehicles have been burnt all over the country from October 28 till November 15—during its blockade programme—and even if it claims to have played no part in the arson attacks and violence, it must ultimately realise the trap it is setting for itself by going down its chosen path. As a party that professes to speak for the people, it also should not ignore the loss of lives and livelihoods of people during the worst economic downturn the country has faced in decades.

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Rights of prison inmates must be upheld

Even the CEC himself, in his televised speech to the nation, has admitted that if conflict and violence take place due to differences, instability can be created, which will have a negative impact on the election process. He must also realise that calling upon voters to go to the polling stations with "enthusiasm, courage, and confidence" during such a political climate is mere rhetoric. The CEC has once again urged for dialogue among the major political parties—a call which we wholeheartedly endorse.

However, the EC cannot simply put the blame on the parties for not attending dialogues without playing an active role in ensuring a level playing field for all. Thus far, the EC has maintained that its hands are tied regarding the mass arrests of the opposition until the announcement of the schedule. Can we now finally expect it to play its due role? If it wants the confidence of the major political parties, especially the opposition, the EC, whose track record is questionable at best, must do the hard work itself. After two consecutive controversial elections of 2014 and 2018, Bangladesh simply cannot afford another discredited election.