When the top leadership of the Awami League and BNP, the two major political parties in Bangladesh, ruled out any possibility of talks ahead of the next parliamentary election, the Election Commission appeared in the scene by inviting the BNP to a dialogue.

Suspicious about the sudden invitation, the BNP rejected it outright, calling it "meaningless." Although the EC roadmap, announced late last year, did not say anything about talks with the political parties, it did mention that gaining their trust was a major challenge. But it did not spell out how that trust would be earned.

The EC invitation to BNP came at a time when Awami League and BNP leaders were both meeting with diplomats about the next election. It was widely reported that Western diplomats emphasised holding a free and fair election. To add to the context, the US Department of State has published its annual flagship human rights report where it was mentioned for the first time that the 2018 election was neither free nor fair. Charles Whiteley, the European Union ambassador to Bangladesh, said the EU would not send observers to the next election if it is not participatory. Now, if the international observers don't come, the election's credibility as well as the EC's role will remain under question.

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In which direction is Bangladesh heading?

It could be said that the election authorities only acted responsibly when they invited the main opposition, seeing as the issue of a participatory election is under discussion right now. On the surface, at least, the EC has demonstrated their willingness to hold an inclusive, free and fair election. But one ought to ask what the EC is looking to achieve through these talks. Other than the commission gaining some mileage by showing their attempts, and the political parties playing to the gallery, there is not much that these talks would gain. In that respect, talks with the EC would be rather infructuous.

The invitation letter to the BNP also clarifies some things. While the Election Commission is fully aware of BNP's position regarding an election-time government, there is no comment related to that in the letter. To make any progress with the election, the stumbling blocks must be dealt with, and the commission must have a specific agenda for the talks – for instance, whether to use electronic voting machines (EVMs) or not. The invitation letter does not carry any such details. Then why hold these talks?

The Election Commission may claim that their goal is to ensure an inclusive 12th parliamentary election. But simply saying that is not enough, given the previous EC's complete failure to hold a credible election in 2018, and then even admitting that publicly.

The BNP should have taken time to deliberate over their decision before rejecting the EC invitation. Now they have to explain why they don't want to join the talks. Shunning the possibility of dialogues is not a good option for any political party. The only meaningful explanation could be that holding talks with the EC would, in fact, give it the legitimacy that the BNP has refused from the beginning. But it is unlikely that the main opposition camp has given the matter any such thought.

The incumbent EC could claim that they are different from their predecessors. But then, one could ask what this commission has done to earn the trust of all political parties. The commission's activities so far don't portray them in a favourable light, nor do they indicate sincere intentions. The BNP, which boycotted EC dialogues in June and July last year, has not shown any confidence in the electoral authority since its formation – and even before its formation, since the party did not join the talks initiated by the president and did not propose any name to the search committee of this EC. The party has repeatedly said that the EC would not be able to hold a free, fair and participatory general election.

The lack of trust for the Election Commission deepened when it went ahead with the decision to use EVMs in the upcoming general election, ignoring the objection of many political parties, including the BNP. That decision, while embracing modernity and change, was aligned with the desire of the ruling party.

Undoubtedly, rejecting the dialogue would be a setback for the BNP as it would garner criticism from the ruling party. The EC would be able to say that they tried, but could not bring BNP to the table. BNP leaders would have to remain busy for a few days parrying all the criticism. The party may even face questions from the international community.

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Political dialogues: The long road to nowhere

The BNP should have taken time to deliberate over their decision before rejecting the EC invitation. Now they have to explain why they don't want to join the talks. Shunning the possibility of dialogues is not a good option for any political party. The only meaningful explanation could be that holding talks with the EC would, in fact, give it the legitimacy that the BNP has refused from the beginning. But it is unlikely that the main opposition camp has given the matter any such thought.

Having said all that, the political parties can take advantage of the situation as it suits their strategy, but not the Election Commission, which is a constitutional body and assigned to hold a free, fair and participatory election. Lip service or mere show of effort may not be enough.

Listening to the trials and tribulations of this political reporter, and learning that the EC had invited the opposition to the table, a relative recounted an anecdote about the stingy hosts of a certain part of the country, where guests would often arrive on boats. The story goes like this: in this certain region, the hosts keep mum as the guests get ready to leave and get on their boat to return home, and just when the hosts push off the boat, they say, "I wish you had stayed a few more days with us." But by then the boat is already sailing, and the guests have nothing but to say, "Next time!"

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

Since 1991, Bangladesh has witnessed robust, genuine general elections till 2008, with the exception of the one in February 1996 which was overseen by the ruling government and boycotted by the main opposition of the time. Regardless of the veracity of those elections (1991, June 1996, 2001 and 2008), the losing parties labelled them as "unfair," claiming "minor irregularities," "blatant rigging," "election engineering," "ballot stuffing" or "voting at night." We also witnessed how 153 lawmakers were elected uncontested in the 2014 election, while in 2018, there were widespread allegations of ballot stuffing on the eve of the actual polls.

So, the nature of the impending election gives us a moment to ponder the present political scenario. The ruling Awami League is desperately trying to showcase the polls as inclusive and competitive—one that will lead to high voter turnout, although the main political opposition BNP and some left-wing and right-wing parties are boycotting the polls.

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Elections without choice: A leaf out of autocrats’ playbook

As the ruling party's main challenge is to make the election look inclusive, it has adopted a strategy of allowing and encouraging those within its ranks to run as "independent" candidates. But before the ruling party chief endorsed their "independence," these aspirants were known as "rebel" candidates, who run against candidates of their own party after having been spurned in the race for nomination.

These independents have now become a major concern for ruling party nominees. According to news reports, intra-party fights are now likely, meaning that the contest will mainly be limited to AL nominees and AL independents. However, whoever wins, it is basically a victory for the ruling party. The election will look competitive as both candidates will try to reach out to the voters, possibly leading to higher voter turnout, although how fierce the intra-party feud will be is yet to be seen. There will also be no walkover this time, meaning no string of candidates being elected unchallenged—like what happened in 2014.

Rights advocate Sultana Kamal has rightly stated that the election has become a staged performance. We know the opposition parties have been terming the election staged, but when it comes from a noted civil society member who is uncompromising on issues of liberation and human rights, that gives it more credence.

Obviously, it is a good move to make the election competitive, but this one may prove to be costly depending on how it plays out in the future.

Meanwhile, the ruling party's alliance partners seem more concerned. They held a series of meetings with AL to negotiate a settlement on the number of seats that might be conceded to them. According to reports, this is likely to be only seven—down from 16 in 2018—with Jatiya Party (Monju) getting one, and two leftist parties getting three each. All the alliance partners said they wanted to contest the election with the AL symbol like they did in the past.

This time, the ruling party announced candidates for 298 seats. So, it has to withdraw some of its candidates from the seats where its alliance partners will run. But this is not enough for the coalition partners. They want no independent candidate from the ruling party, which essentially means they want to be elected unchallenged. They want assurance of victory in the polls, because an endorsement from AL ensures that. This precludes any possibility of competition, which is the main essence of an election.

There is more. The main opposition in parliament, Jatiya Party, is also negotiating with the ruling party over seat-sharing. It also wants assurance of victory and a guarantee that there will be no independents in its constituencies. But AL has said there will be independents. It is surely a rare incident in Bangladesh politics when the opposition party is in discussion with the ruling party over election strategy. Jatiya Party saw itself broken into factions over election, and its manner of negotiations points to its utter lack of confidence in winning a competitive election.

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Another managed election will be disastrous

So when the political situation is largely like this, the whole affair seems like a friendly charity match, in which it doesn't matter who wins. After all, it will either be AL's nominee or loyalist, or an "opposition" endorsed by AL itself. This proves that Awami League has become so strong that other parties exist merely on paper. Basically, those parties have degenerated into political clubs without any ideology, and the polls are merely a cosmetic exercise to exhibit—by dint of their presence on the ballot—that they do indeed exist. Their only intention is to land in parliament with the blessings and generosity of the ruling party.

The alliance partners and Jatiya Party have been in a favourable position for the last 15 years, enjoying their status and privileges. However, they have failed to strengthen their parties. Meanwhile, the ruling party has taken the election process to such a level where its victory is a certainty one way or the other.

While opposition parties used different labels to term previous elections, as stated before, this time it's different. Rights advocate Sultana Kamal has rightly stated that the election has become a staged performance. We know the opposition parties have been terming the election staged, but when it comes from a noted civil society member who is uncompromising on issues of liberation and human rights, that gives it more credence.

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Expediency triumphs over principle in electoral politics

The most crucial point is that, previously, these questions were raised after the elections ended, but this time, they are being raised even before it is held. The way AL is managing contesting parties and the strategies it has adopted to make the election inclusive and competitive, this election is surely a cosmetic one through which the government will be able to claim that everything was perfect, at least, through the clinical lens of legitimacy. But it would fall desperately short in terms of the spirit and purpose of elections.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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Awami League President and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today announced her party's polls manifesto for the 2024 national election, vowing to build a developed, prosperous and Smart Bangladesh by 2041.

"Bangladesh will be established as a high-middle-income country by 2031 and a developed, prosperous, smart one by 2041 by the Bangladesh Awami League, the bearer of the spirit of the Liberation War, if the people once again allow us to serve them by voting for the boat, the AL's electoral symbol," she said.

The premier said if the people of the country vote for the AL, her party will give them development, peace, and prosperity.

The AL chief made the remarks after unveiling her party's election manifesto at a city hotel this morning, just 10 days before the 12th parliamentary election slated for January 7.

The slogan of the AL's election manifesto is "Smart Bangladesh where Development Shines, Accelerating Employment".

The manifesto has given priorities to 11 issues.

In the manifesto, the AL vowed to show zero tolerance against corruption and terrorism, alleviate poverty, create employment, and ensure service-oriented and accountable administration.

The AL manifesto also put greater focus on infrastructure development, freedom of press and the practice of transparency, accountability, good governance as well as strengthened democratic values in all aspects of state management.

It, as well, promised to be tougher against money launderers, to eradicate bribery and corruption at all levels of the state and society, to establish a universal health system, and introduce health insurance.

"We are responsible for all the mistakes during the last 15 years ... Success is yours. Look at our mistakes with a forgiving eye. We promise to learn from past mistakes and conduct future activities according to your expectations," she said.

Right now, Bangladesh is standing in a transitional period and the country is going to join the ranks of developing countries from the list of least developed countries, she said, adding that this transition is an honour on the one hand and a huge challenge on the other.

"The government to be formed by the January 7 election must have the capacity to face this challenge. Only the Awami League can face this challenge and take the country to new heights," she said.

Looking forward to the 12th election, Sheikh Hasina said they have once again appeared before the countrymen with the election manifesto of Bangladesh Awami League.

"As a continuation of the past, this time, we have prepared an implementable election manifesto by setting specific targets. The continuity of the long-term action plans announced in the 2008, 2014, and 2018 election manifestos has also been maintained in the 12th election manifesto," she said.

The AL chief said they will not claim that they have always been a hundred percent successful in running the government despite sincerity and devotion.

She continued: "Awami League does not believe in the politics of words. We do what we say. The implementation of election manifestos of 2008, 2014, and 2018 is proof of that."

But at times, she said man-made, natural, and global obstacles slowed down Bangladesh's progress, adding that during 2013-16, they had to move forward by confronting the attempts of BNP-Jamaat to spread terrorism and militancy.

Since 2009, they had to deal with several natural disasters while the biggest blow came in 2020 when the global coronavirus pandemic broke out, Sheikh Hasina said, adding that the pandemic devastated economies and health systems around the entire world.

"Our government has successfully handled this terrible pandemic of the 21st century and kept the wheels of the economy running," she said.

However, as soon as the pressure of the coronavirus pandemic stopped, first, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, and this year the Israel-Palestine war started, she added.

The sanction and counter-sanction against each other have thrown the world economy into turmoil and the least developed and developing countries like Bangladesh are being forced to import products at higher prices, she continued.
The depreciation of the domestic currency has led to an increase in inflation, which has an impact on commodity prices and people's lives, the premier said.

"Several times, despite multifaceted and all-out efforts, we have not been able to curb the rise in prices of daily necessities. This problem is not only for our country, but this problem is also for all rich and poor countries," she said.
However, "We are trying to reduce the plight of the lower and lower-middle class people through various initiatives, including expanding social safety net coverage. We hope that we can overcome this obstacle very soon, In Sha Allah," she added.

Whenever the election comes, the AL chief said an anti-liberation, anti-Bangladesh, and anti-development clique becomes active with a leap of conspiracy.

"They enter the field by using tricks or vote rigging or through the back door to come to power. If they become unsuccessful, they jump on the people to take revenge," she said.

She went on saying that the anti-liberation force wants to intimidate the public through arson attack, burning of vehicle, bombing, sabotage, or terrorist activities.

"This time, there was no exception. This time, they are also making conspiracies from abroad. Realising that they will not get the people's mandate, they have already indulged in terrorist activities," she said.

In the name of the hartal-blockade, the premier said that vehicles are being burnt, people are being killed, railway lines are being rooted up, and various vandalisms are being carried out continuously.

"The charred bodies of the mother and child have deeply shaken everyone's conscience. Such heinous acts can no longer be tolerated. Without getting the response to the people, mercenary forces are continuing this vandalism and damaging the vehicles," she said.

The people of this country will never let them fulfill their dream of disrupting the election through terrorism, she continued.

"As you resisted them in 2013-2016, let us collectively defend them this time. This anti-independence, anti-development vulture party will never be able to wound Bangladesh with their poisonous teeth and claws - let's take this oath in the month of victory," the AL chief said.

She reminded that this country's outstanding achievements- starting from establishing the rights to speak the mother tongue and achieving the motherland's independence, have come through the hands of the Awami League.

The AL president said Bangladesh has been transformed in the last 15 years as today's Bangladesh is by no means poverty-stricken or economically fragile.

"I can unequivocally say that today's Bangladesh is now a 'Changed Bangladesh.' Bangladesh is now a fast-paced country moving forward with its potential. Minor setbacks cannot hinder our economic progress today," she said.

AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader also spoke at the function.

Convener of the Election Manifesto Committee Dr Muhammad Abdur Razzaque gave the address of welcome.

Cabinet members, politicians, foreign diplomats, educationists, journalists and eminent personalities of the country were present.

Two video documentaries highlighting the journey of Bangladesh towards prosperity under the leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina were screened at the function.

The contrast between what the government promised opposition political parties and its actions on the ground couldn't be starker, as a rundown on the 22 days of BNP's ongoing countrywide protest programme shows. What the government promised them was – peaceful assembly and freedom of speech. What they are actually having is – violent assembly and fear of speech/reprisals. While this turnabout is politics 101 in Bangladesh, it also begs the question: was the promise of fair play, and the congeniality expressed in the PM's "Will offer BNP leaders tea if they come to besiege my office" comment, at all meant to be taken seriously?

A report by Prothom Alo shows that between August 22 and September 13, violent attacks and clashes were reported in 48 events of BNP organised as part of a countrywide protest programme against the price hikes of fuel and daily essentials and also the deaths of two of its activists in police shooting in Bhola. Multiple people were injured so far, with BNP claiming to have lost three of its activists as of September 4. In 25 places, houses, vehicles and business establishments of its leaders and activists were vandalised, many of them having since left their neighbourhoods in fear of further reprisals. And in 17 places, section 144 was issued because of Awami League events overlapping with BNP's. Finally, 46 cases were filed in 18 districts.

What we're witnessing is downright denial of political space to the opposition camp. It reminds us of the acrimonious circumstances leading up to the controversial 2014 and 2018 elections.

Bizarrely, though, the official line puts the blame for violence on BNP itself, as if the party brought this all on itself in some sick display of self-loathing or to discredit itself. The truth is, it is the police that stands discredited, firstly because of its partisan role in handling the protests, and secondly, because of its heavy-handed and rather collusive legal response. As a breakdown of the 46 clash-related cases illustrates, 29 were filed by the police and 17 by the leaders of Awami League and affiliated organisations, mostly against their rivals in BNP and affiliated organisations. The total number of accused are 21,709. Of them, 2,777 were named and the rest unnamed – a classic formula to allow for more names to be added later. More damningly, however, the abovementioned report says that a number of accused were sick, old or overseas, meaning they were nowhere near the protest sites.

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Attacks on BNP a worrying sign for the future

What we're witnessing is downright denial of political space to the opposition camp. It reminds us of the acrimonious circumstances leading up to the controversial 2014 and 2018 elections. This, it goes without saying, is not amenable to creating the level playing field so essential for a fair, safe, and participatory election. As things stand, the ruling camp, despite what it said officially and despite demands by independent parties to protect people's right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression, appears totally unwilling to allow the opposition to reach the ears of the masses.

This is totally unacceptable. We urge the authorities, including the Election Commission, to ensure the opposition is allowed to protest and prepare for the upcoming election. The ruling party must discipline its activists and the police and keep them from infringing upon these inalienable rights of the opposition.