A $12 billion question hangs over export data mismatch

Bangladesh is no stranger to data mismatches, but a $12 billion gap between export shipments and actual receipts from abroad points to potential capital flight just before the January election.

In 2022-23, the mismatch between the actual realisation reported by the Bangladesh Bank and the Export Promotion Bureau's (EPB) shipment figure was $12.08 billion, the highest in at least eight years.

EPB data showed that goods and services exports stood at $63.05 billion in FY23 whereas the central bank reported that Bangladesh received $50.97 billion in the same year.

Traditionally, the gap between the EPB and BB figures hovers around $4-5 billion, but it jumped in 2021-22 to $8.51 billion from $4.73 billion in 2020-21. The difference is rising in the current fiscal year of 2023-24.

The deficit in trade credit in the balance of payments (BoP) was $3.7 billion in the first four months of FY24, up from $1.3 billion a year prior. Trade credit appears on a buyer's balance sheet as accounts payable.

"Owing to many traditional reasons, the gap exists in the data produced by the two government bodies. But the huge gap is not supported logically by traditional reasons," said Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office.

He said some people may not bring their export proceeds for the lingering political uncertainty in the election year.

The instability in the foreign exchange market is handing another blow: since the rate is falling frequently, exporters are delaying the transfers to cash in on further depreciation of the taka against the US dollar.

Since exporters are not getting the real rate at present, some might be bringing in their sales proceeds through unofficial channels. As a result, the foreign currency is not coming to Bangladesh, putting the already strained foreign exchange reserve under pressure.

"The trend still continues. That is why there is a huge deficit in the trade credit of the BoP," Hussain said.

A top official of the BB also said many exporters are not transferring sales proceeds due to expectations of a further depreciation of the local currency and the deepening political uncertainty ahead of the election slated for January 7.

The taka has lost its value by about 30 percent against the US dollar since January last year amid sharp depletion of the foreign currency reserves caused by higher import bills against lower export and remittance earnings, BB data showed.

The central bank is examining the issue of export proceeds on a case-by-case basis and ordered banks to take measures as well, he added.

BB and EPB data showed the major difference was shown in the export of goods instead of services. In FY23, the gap in the actual receipts was $11.98 billion in the goods segment and $0.1 billion in the services segment.

The same trend was noticed in the previous year as well. In FY22, the gap in the receipts was $8.48 billion in the goods exports and $0.02 billion in the services exports.

"Concealing data in the services sector is easy because there is no scope to know who is exporting what. So, the discrepancy is not being traced in the sector. On the other hand, it is easier to spot gaps in merchandise exports," said Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, research director at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, a think-tank.

He said Bangladesh is not placing adequate importance on data governance, so the difference has been there year after year.

"Once Bangladesh used to report the country's trade data to the UN Comtrade, which was a way to ensure the export data scrutiny at the international level."

The UN Comtrade details import and export statistics in goods and services reported by the statistical authorities of close to 200 countries or territories since 1962.

"But from 2012, Bangladesh became irregular and the country has not reported the data at all since 2015. So, the data is not being scrutinised and no one is monitoring exporters' activities effectively to see whether they are bringing their export receipts properly or not," Razzaque said.

He said the present macroeconomic management system is allowing people to speculate while exporters are hoping for a further currency depreciation.

"So, many of them may wait to fetch their export earnings."

Mohammad Hatem, executive president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, thinks some difference always exists between the data reported by the BB and the EPB as payments face delays sometimes.

"But a gap of $12 billion seems abnormal. Actually, the central bank's data is correct and we don't agree with the EPB data."

Hatem said if proceeds don't arrive within 120 days, the name of the exporter is displayed on the dashboard of the central bank. Then, the exporter does not receive any service from banks.

The exporter needs to secure an extension from the central bank to keep availing banking services and if the exporter still thinks that he will not get the proceeds at all, he will have to inform the discount committee of the BB who analyses it before approving, he said.

BB Spokesperson Md Mezbaul Haque said there is a difference between the reporting system of the EPB and the BB.

He explains the central bank reports only when the export proceeds are realised whereas the EPB publishes the pre-shipment data of shipments.

"If the export is cancelled after goods leave ports or the fund does not arrive, the difference may exist."

On the higher gap, he said since the export volume is rising, the difference is also widening.

Tapan Kanti Ghosh, senior secretary of the commerce ministry, said the government is well aware of the gap between the shipments and the original receipts. A committee has been formed already to see what is going on here, he added.

The central bank official said after the election, the foreign exchange market will be stable on the back of an expected fund injection by development partners in the form of budget support.