Will Nawaz Sharif be a game changer?

THE 2013 elections in Pakistan, historic in more than one sense, have thrown up interesting results. Though many had predicted the victory of Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz, PML-N), but it surpassed many expectations and estimates as it performed extremely well both in the National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies in spite of the challenge of so-called PTI (Pakistan Tehreek Insaf) tsunami. It was expected that the PTI which campaigned very hard and promised 'Naya Pakistan' would make a dent into PML-N constituency. The voters turnout according to some estimate was sixty percent which may have helped the PTI in gaining more than thirty seats in the National Assembly for the first time. It has emerged as the third political force after the PML-N and the Pakistan's Peoples Party (PPP). The vote also attested that voters exercised their mandate and voted out a government that was labeled as corrupt, inefficient and with an unenviable economic performance.

The election results also reiterated the regional roots of the National political parties. For example while the PML emerged as a majority party in Punjab Provincial Assembly for a successive second term, the PPP in spite of anti-incumbency factor, retained its seat in the rural Sindh and the MQM also won majority of seats in urban Sindh. The PTI though a new actor which was perceived as having a stronghold in Khyber Pakhtukhwa (KP) emerged as having the largest number of seats. The Jamaat-ul-Ulema- Fazlur (JUI-F) also managed around 12 seats in KP and Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) region. The Balochistan province was a surprise as the results are mixed with the Balochi nationalist bagging around 10 seats. The only unfortunate casualty in this election is the Awami National Party (ANP) whose workers were targeted by the TTP in the last five years. Significantly, Imran Khan lost his seat in Lahore where his first rally in Minar-e-Sharif in 2010 drew largely youths that gave credence to the tsunami theory. However, this also makes it clear that Punjab remains the PML-N bastion of power.

Nawaz Sharif is all set to become Prime Minister for the third time. His first two terms were cut short by extra-constitutional interventions in 1993 and 1999. There will be seven major challenges for Sharif. The most immediate issues that would draw his attention are first addressing the incessant cycle of violence in Karachi, second resolving the long pending Baloch grievances; third improving the lackluster economy, fourth, dealing with internal security challenges poised by the TTP perpetrated terrorism and suicide attacks across the country, which, a month back had also proposed his name as one of the mediators in any peace dialogue with the government, fifthly his promises to seek 6 per cent growth will depend on peace in Pakistan's commercial capital and creating a enabling environment for foreign investment; sixthly; the broad context of war on terror that will bring into focus Pakistan's relations with the United States which includes the controversial drone attacks and finally the transition in Afghanistan and its implications to larger question of stability in the tribal areas.

Whatever will be Nawaz's approach to the US terrorism and drone attacks, he would certainly need the help of Imran Khan whose party is all set to form the government in KP. In this equation, the army will be a major player as it is a major stakeholder in the above-mentioned issues. Sharif, who at one point of time was a protégé of the establishment, also needs to win the confidence of army to fight terrorism at home, mend its relations with India and to chart a new path with the US in the war on terror. Civil-Military relations would remain a crucial issue for both political stability and internal peace. He would also need the cooperation from the PPP, which still has a majority in the Senate.

In the next one year, Nawaz Sharif will take major decisions where Pakistan will see a new President, a new army Chief and a new Chief Justice. All these institutions will play important role in shaping the future of democracy in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif role as a game changer will depend on how he fares on his promise of provincial harmony, provincial autonomy and carries the Army along to deal with the fundamental challenge of terrorism that will impinge on Pakistan's policy towards US, Afghanistan and India.

The writer is Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.