Commentary by Mahfuz Anam: Arrogance and a disaster
Russia felt insecure, or should we say President Putin, and so Ukraine had to be invaded, population from major parts of the country had to leave their homes, millions had to become refugees, thousands had to die -- including Russian soldiers, many foreigners and a Bangladeshi sailor -- a nation needed to be terrorised and the world thrown into turmoil.
With literally the whole international community condemning the invasion, Europe solidly united behind Ukraine and with the US suddenly finding a moral mooring to its usual aggressive posturing against Putin, how is Russia better secured now than before boggles the mind of any neutral observer of the situation anywhere in the world?
Whatever be the underlying and long-term factors behind Russia's concerns, the rest of the world cannot accept the Russian invasion for the simple reason that no nation can invade another under any circumstances, except perhaps in very rare and clearly proven circumstances of imminent existential danger. Russia's invasion of a small, disproportionately endowed -- in every measurable way -- neighbour constitutes nothing but big power thuggery and use of brutal force as the ultimate arbiter in resolving matters between neighbours. This undermines every international law, norm, practice and behaviour. No country will feel safe and nothing will remain certain in terms of international conduct between countries if such behaviour of big countries is not condemned most vociferously. Imagine the state of all small countries sharing border with big neighbours.
Yes, the US did the same in invading Iraq but one wrong cannot be used to justify another.
Yesterday marked one month of Russian invasion of Ukraine, which was in no way a match for the super power that Russia is and could have posed any security threat to its huge neighbour. Within these 30 days, according to the UN, 10 million people have been displaced and 3.6 million made refugees. A total of 977 civilians were killed and 1,500 injured. Unicef says that out of a child population of 7.5 million, 4.3 million are on the run and 1.8 million have become refugees. According to Russian official figures, 498 of its soldiers have been killed and 1,500 injured. WHO verified that during this period 64 hospitals, clinics and other healthcare facilities were destroyed.
How all this made Russia more secure? With so much unjustified destruction of its neighbour, can Russia ever expect good neighbourly relations with Ukraine?
Russian narrative is that Nato came too close to its doorstep and that Ukraine's desire for its membership posed a security threat. There is merit in this position. Following the collapse of the old Soviet Union, Nato expansion eastwards was irresponsible to put it mildly and provocative in the real sense. Many American foreign policy experts including Henry Kissinger cautioned against Ukraine's inclusion into Nato. But the US was reckless and France, Germany and others were too timid to prevent this dangerous policy.
Nato's expansion was a dangerous game that the US played. But Russian invasion of Ukraine is a far more dangerous game that Russia has started. And the whole world is caught between this reckless game of two superpowers, and the country and people of Ukraine are the casualties.
What Bangladesh and perhaps the rest of the world find it additionally deplorable and condemnable is the threat to use nuclear weapon. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN Tuesday, "We have a concept of domestic security, and it's public. You can read all the reasons for nuclear arms to be used. So if it is an existential threat for our country then it can be used in accordance to our concept." What are we to understand from it? Every country has a right to defend itself. And countries maintain an arsenal of these deadly weapons only for that dreaded day when their "existence" is threatened. But who is threatening Russia's existence at present? Has anybody attacked Russia? Has a single foreign soldier crossed the Russian border? Has a single bomb been dropped on Russian soil? So what "existential threat" is Peskov talking about?
Like all the peace-loving people, we in Bangladesh want Russian invasion of Ukraine to be stopped immediately. Serious negotiations should start without further loss of time. President Putin has overplayed his cards endangering Russian future as never before -- not in security terms, for Russia is powerful enough to protect itself -- but in economic terms. If it had any dream of emulating the Chinese economic miracle, that lies in ruins today.
As we sadly observe the first month of this unnecessary tragedy, we are afraid that one small thing will lead to another and soon the big powers will have reached the so-called point of "no-return" and their pompous notions of self-aggrandisement will prevent them from taking rational decisions. We will then enter the world of manufactured events for self-justification and we will lose sight of facts. Let us never forget that the first casualty of conflict is truth, and losing sight of that in a nuclear world makes us all extremely vulnerable.
Stop it now, before arrogance and false pride engulf us all.