It has been a year since the new Election Commission (EC) was constituted according to a law that has stipulated the qualifications of the chief election commissioner (CEC) and other commissioners, as well as their recruitment process – although the law itself is not above controversy. Since the new EC's appointment, the government and the ruling party have been relentlessly trying to pursue and convince everyone within the country as well as the interested international observers that this institution has the capacity and authority to conduct all elections in Bangladesh independently, ensuring fairness.

However, the functioning and the activities of the new EC, including the election of the new president, local government (zilla parishad) elections and a few parliamentary by-elections during the last one year, have been the least convincing of that idea. The lone issue where the commission has proven its resolve is its tireless but irrational push for procuring Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), even in the middle of a severe economic strain that the nation has been facing. It appeared to be an attempt to please the ruling Awami League, which had been insisting on using EVMs instead of paper ballots in the next parliamentary election until they, too, accepted the reality that there was no money for it.

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A citizen’s manifesto for Election Commission

Putting this EVM debate aside, let's look at the records of the elections the new EC has presided over so far. It must be noted that the EC's firm handling of the botched by-election to Gaibandha-5 constituency on October 12, 2022 showed some encouraging bravery on its part, when it suspended voting amid widespread irregularities four hours after it started. Those irregularities included people either illegally supporting or forcing voters to cast ballots, polling agents wearing clothes bearing the symbol of their nominees, and illegal entry into restricted rooms. CEC Kazi Habibul Awal and his fellow commissioners watched all these violations taking place from the EC office, Nirbachan Bhaban, in Dhaka, hundreds of kilometres away on big monitors through CCTV feeds.

Though the Awami League leadership questioned the EC's decision, they promptly argued that the decision proved the EC had always been in control of elections in the country and the BNP's demand for a poll-time caretaker government was unjustified. The EC, however, ditched the CCTV project to monitor elections real time in all subsequent elections citing lack of resources, which only requires a fraction of the highly ambitious and exorbitantly expensive EVMs. Reports of widespread irregularities and malpractices in the recently held by-elections in Brahmanbaria, Bogura and Chapainawabganj were simply overlooked by the EC, which was a complete reversal of Gaibandha in 2022.

One of the worst failures of the EC, however, was not investigating the alleged disappearance of a candidate in Brahmanbaria and his agent. The alleged victim, Asif Ahmed, later told journalists that members of the ruling party were the people who would be able to explain his mysterious disappearance. The EC, however, chose to look away.

Before that, the disappearance of a contestant ahead of election day was unheard of in any election in the country. There are considerable concerns among observers and opposition parties that enforced disappearances for a shorter term could be a new tactic to be deployed in the coming general election. After all, from what the past experiences show, victims of enforced disappearance get so traumatised that they never dare to speak about their ordeals.

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Top Quote!

If these failures do not make one realise the new EC's inability to rise above partisan bias and its subservience to the government of the day, look at its latest goof-up in the election process for the new president. It's the question of following the procedure and its own rules. The election schedule announced by the EC stated the date for withdrawal of nomination papers to be February 14, 2023 till 4pm. But the returning officer, CEC Kazi Habibul Awal, declared the lone contestant and the ruling party Awami League nominee, Md Shahabuddin, elected on February 13. Nobody is suggesting that the president-elect would have pulled out of the race at that stage, but the question of complying with its own time frame by the EC is not a trivial matter. The EC and returning officers are bound by the schedule, even if the election is uncontested. As the Representation of the People Order (RPO) provides the basic guiding principles for all elections in the country, strict abidance of the schedule is quite crucial.

What prompted such a technical but legally crucial failure on the EC's part? Doesn't it reflect badly on their competence? Was it their excitement for having an uncontested election for the top job of the republic? If ignoring election rules was not the result of negligence of its duty, the only other explanation that comes to mind is partisan behaviour.

Regaining public confidence and trust in the Election Commission, which have been systematically destroyed by two previous commissions, is undoubtedly a tough task. Unfortunately, it seems the current EC, too, is failing us miserably.

Kamal Ahmed is an independent journalist. His Twitter handle is @ahmedka1

Eid has always been a singular occasion for mass campaigns. Aspiring electoral candidates seize the opportunity to meet their voters in their constituencies amid festivities. And given the tradition of long campaigns leading up to national elections, it would not have been unusual to see candidates gearing up for their outreach programmes during the holidays as this Eid was the last time that candidates would find most of their voters home en masse.

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Anti-Govt Demo: BNP aims to tap Eid to mobilise public support

But the hype has been absent. Other than a few pre-recorded voice messages that elicited little more than irritation, the initiatives taken this time paled in comparison to the previous occasions. Although not a voter in either district, this correspondent received two messages from the lawmakers of Sirajganj and Lakshmipur. As such, one could say that attempts to reach out to the electorate this time have been quite insignificant.

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A short history of AL’s challenging times

On the other front, the BNP has already made it clear that it would not join the upcoming parliamentary election under the incumbent government. The ruling Awami League has also made it clear that the election would be held according to the constitution, meaning it would not step down. This sort of uncertainty is not new in Bangladeshi politics where parties appear to be entrenched in their positions due to mistrust. On the last two occasions, the government proceeded with the elections regardless of BNP's position or protests. This time, however, it seems different.

The Awami League appeared to be more sure-footed about the elections and did not appear to mind so much that the BNP might not join the elections. But things may have changed since the evening of May 24, when it was announced that the United States would restrict visas to any Bangladeshi citizens believed to be responsible for or complicit in undermining democratic election processes in the country.

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How to explain Jamaat’s return to the political scene?

Initially, the announcement was warmly welcomed all around – by the ruling Awami League, Jatiya Party, main opposition in parliament, and BNP, main opposition camp on the streets. Arch-rivals Awami League and BNP both claimed that the measure was aimed at the other and that they had nothing to worry about. Shortly, however, the ruling party distanced itself from that position, especially with the ruling party leaders vocally protesting the measure as nothing but an attempt to oust the incumbent government.

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Movement, not polls

Through its visa restrictions, the US has made it clear that it wants to see a free and fair election in Bangladesh and that basic freedoms and rights needed for a democratic environment are upheld. This announcement, in a way, seemed inevitable if one considers that Bangladesh was not even invited to the democracy summits for two consecutive times. The latest measure might be a planned attempt to pressure the government to ensure a free and fair election at the end of this year.

Eid is over and people are returning to the cities. BNP has already warned that it would go for its one-point movement to materialise the demand for an election under a non-partisan interim government. A three-member high-powered US delegation is also expected to visit Bangladesh later in July. Media reports suggest that the US officials are likely to hold talks with political parties and civil society members.

What's even more interesting is that when the ruling party members started criticising the US, Bangladesh's development partner China came up with a statement following a question-and-answer session of the Chinese foreign ministry. Without directly mentioning the US, the Chinese statement said "a certain country has long been interfering in the internal affairs of Bangladesh and many other developing countries under the pretext of democracy and human rights."

The statement further read, "We firmly support Bangladesh in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, upholding independent domestic and foreign policies, and pursuing a development path that suits its national realities. We stand ready to work together with Bangladesh and other countries to oppose all forms of hegemonism and power politics, uphold the UN-centred international system, the international order underpinned by international law and the basic norms governing international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and build a community with a shared future for mankind."

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Delving into the new US visa policy for Bangladesh

This reaction clearly indicates that rivalry between China and the US has now touched upon Bangladesh. This is a rather ominous sign, especially when our foreign policy is "friendship to all, malice to none."

While the attitude of the US and China regarding the next general election in Bangladesh may seem clear, we are yet to know what India's position is. We know that our neighbour wholeheartedly supported the 2014 election in which 153 lawmakers were elected uncontested. We have also seen them support the 2018 election. India is yet to make any official comment, but various Indian media outlets have given their interpretations. Most of the explanation focuses on supporting the Awami League regime and some articles also mention what the ruling party should do. But the necessity of holding a free and fair election where people's hopes and aspirations will be projected received little attention. Obviously, India will consider its geopolitical interests, especially regarding the security situation in the Seven Sisters.

Eid is over and people are returning to the cities. BNP has already warned that it would go for its one-point movement to materialise the demand for an election under a non-partisan interim government. A three-member high-powered US delegation is also expected to visit Bangladesh later in July. Media reports suggest that the US officials are likely to hold talks with political parties and civil society members.

While we have politicians, civil society members and other stakeholders, it seems that the next election is largely dependent on the attitudes of the big powers. It seems we are waiting to see how the big powers react in the coming days. Some are criticising the US, some China, while others are expressing their reservations about India's attitude.

If any one quarter is to be held responsible for such a turn of events, it would have to be the politicians. Unfortunately, no one is talking about the main stakeholders of the election – the people. Without them, democracy will neither flourish nor be strengthened.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

A six-member Election Exploratory Mission from the European Union arrived in Dhaka early today to assess the overall environment surrounding the national elections scheduled for December this year or early next year.

During the two-week visit, the EU delegation will talk to all the stakeholders -- government, political parties, Election Commission, security officials, civil society and media.

It is an independent professional exercise and not a political EU mission.

"They will have to decide if it is feasible, useful and advisable to deploy a full EU observation mission," EU Ambassador to Bangladesh Charles Whiteley told The Daily Star.

"The task of this mission will be to assess the scope, planning, budget, logistics and security of the main election observation mission," Mohammad Rafiqul Alam, foreign ministry's director general (additional charge) of public diplomacy wing, told reporters at the weekly briefing at the foreign ministry on Thursday.

The visit takes place at the invitation of the Election Commission and the foreign ministry has little to do in this regard, he added.

Based on the assessment report that will be submitted to the EU High Representative Josep Borrell, the EU will decide whether to send a full-fledged Election Observation Mission (EOM) before the next national elections.

The EU delegation in Dhaka has not made public the schedules of the mission's activities in Dhaka.

"So far there is no plan for media engagement. Their [mission members'] names have also not been made public because the delegation wants to be fully independent and unbiased," a diplomatic source said.

Meanwhile, election analysts said assessment of the mission is a determining factor for other international observers to decide if they would also come to Bangladesh to observing the elections.

The EU did not send election observers in 2018.

EU's Election Exploratory Mission will leave the country on July 23.

Amid allegations of anomalies, the Election Commission had agreed to stop the voting of Barishal City Corporation (BCC) polls several hours after it began on July 30.

However, the EC did not suspend the polling as it was doubtful whether law enforcement agencies would be able to handle the consequences. It was also worried about the security of the polls officials.

Election Commissioner Mahbub Talukdar made the disclosure while reading out a written speech at a closed-door meeting with senior police officials at the capital's Nirbachan Bhaban yesterday, said meeting sources. The meeting was organised to discuss security during the upcoming national election.

Mahbub, who was supervising the polls in Barishal, said the election was the worst among the five city corporation polls held earlier this year, according to the sources.

The voting started well at 8:00am but the situation began deteriorating as the day progressed. Different allegations of polls irregularities surfaced. 

"By 11:00am, it appeared to me that the voting cannot go on this way. I informed the honourable CEC [chief election commissioner] and other honourable commissioners that it needs to stop completely,” one of the meeting participants quoted the commissioner as saying.

"At one stage, all commissioners agreed to stop the election. But we refrained from doing that….” the participant quoted him.  

In his speech, Mahbub also said five out of the six candidates withdrew from the election. The lone candidate was elected in an almost uncontested manner.

Candidates of the BNP and four other parties boycotted the polls, raising allegations of anomalies. The ruling Awami League candidate became the mayor.

The polls to Khulna, Gazipur, Barishal, Rajshahi and Sylhet city corporations were held between May and July. BNP candidates won only in Sylhet while the AL candidates came out victorious in the rest.

Mahbub also talked about the probe committee formed to investigate the alleged anomalies.

At one point, he cited a part of the returning officer's testimony before the committee, sources said.

"In some cases, the candidates belonging to the opposition camp were harassed unnecessarily. On the other hand, police were seen playing an inactive role when ruling party candidates violated the electoral code of conduct,” another meeting participant quoted Mahbub as saying.

"Besides, there were allegations of police interference in electioneering of opposition candidates.”

Mahbub also cited a few other paragraphs of the 71-page probe report, which had an attachment of 5,000 pages, on the alleged anomalies of the BCC polls.

"The law and order was not largely normal during the Barishal City Corporation polls and the acting police commissioner was not sincere in this regard.

"Despite the Election Commission's instruction, the police authorities did not appoint any policeman for the security of the commission's observers and assistant returning officers. The law and order situation was volatile in electoral areas and polling stations in many cases. The members of law enforcement agencies did not follow instructions of returning officers and assistant returning officers. In some cases, there was a huge presence of outsiders in and outside the polling centres," the source quoted him as saying.

The election commissioner also questioned the role of police in the Gazipur City Corporation held on June 26.

Settling the discord over seat-sharing with alliance partners and keeping leaders and activists united to work for the party nominees are the major challenges the ruing Awami League is faced with ahead of the parliamentary polls.

Things are trickier for the BNP. Apart from appeasing the combine partners with seats, staying in the race defying the odds would be its main challenge.

Despite a series of meetings with allies, the AL could not resolve the seat-sharing issue. The party had distributed nomination letters among 281 leaders for 264 constituencies.

But what put it in more trouble is the dissidents. The high command on several occasions warned the party men of expulsion for life if anyone files nominations going against its decision.

But a number of aspirants have apparently ignored the warning.

The Election Commission data shows at least 498 aspirants submitted nomination papers as independent candidates.

According to The Daily Star's tally, at least 70 AL leaders filed nomination papers as independent candidates from 43 constituencies in 21 out of 64 districts. The actual number could be higher.

On the other hand, the BNP opted for fielding multiple candidates for almost every seat. Some 696 BNP leaders filed nominations for 295 constituencies on the party ticket.

Many of the BNP leaders are still uncertain whether the party will finally pick them as nominees.

A number of AL grassroots leaders expressed hope that they would be able to resolve all the disputes before the polls and work together to ensure the party's victory.

Rezaur Rahim Lal, vice president of Pabna district AL, admits that there are some internal conflicts since it's a big political party.

"We are trying to end all the conflicts ahead of the polls. We are hopeful that all the party men will be united for the nominees.”

Asaduzzaman, general secretary of Rajshahi district AL, said the party has no division but there are some differences among leaders over securing nominations. That has to be solved and those who got the nominations should play a big role in fixing it.

"Those who will be denied the ticket should also come up to strengthen the party and ensure its win. The upazila committees have already begun working to that end and they will form committees to oversee the electioneering."

On the other hand, BNP leaders say the party men are united despite troubles due to "police harassment". The party's victory will be ensured if leaders and activists can campaign properly.

Golam Mostafa Mamun, organising secretary of Rajshahi BNP, said they have doubt whether the candidates and their supporters would be able to campaign freely.

"There are threats. But our leaders are united and they will work for the party candidates. If we can do so and people can cast their votes, victory is ours," he said.

Habibur Rahman, secretary of Pabna district BNP, said filing of "false" cases is a huge obstacle for grassroots activists to campaign in their areas. "We are trying to secure bail for our party men so that they can join the campaigns."

Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, a professor of government and politics at Jahangirnagar University, said expectations of political leaders in Bangladesh always remain very high. So everyone wants the nomination.

There is a tendency that if a leader is denied party ticket, he or she works against or refrains from working for the nominee, he said.

"Therefore, the main challenge for the Awami League would be to keep the grassroots united and ensure their presence during the campaigns since many of its leaders filed nomination papers as rebel candidates."

For the BNP, how well it will work on the ground is the main challenge as the party leaders and activists are not actually there yet, he added. 

Nizamuddin Ahmed, a professor of public administration at Chittagong University, said the AL is in a better position as its president can remain directly involved in election-related affairs.

But with BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia now in jail, how well the party high-ups deal with the grassroots will be a major thing to look at, he added.