Why do other parties need AL’s concessions to win election?

On December 17, Jatiya Party Joint Secretary General Salauddin Khoka withdrew his election nomination papers for the parliamentary seat for which Shamim Osman, the immensely influential Narayanganj Awami League leader, is also contesting in the upcoming general election. The same day, JP Chairman GM Quader withdrew his nomination papers for the Dhaka-17 constituency, where his competitor would be the incumbent MP, Awami League's Mohammad A Arafat. It is evident, that this is all indicative of the agreement reached by AL and JP on sharing the seats in the 12th parliament.

This begs the question: given that AL's main political rival BNP is not participating, if the JP candidate hadn't decided to withdraw his nomination papers, would winning the election become any difficult for a leader like Shamim Osman? The simple answer is "no." Similarly, would it make any difference for Arafat if GM Quader hadn't withdrawn his nomination papers? No. 

Bar some seats in the northern districts, is JP in a position to compete against AL or BNP and win a parliamentary seat anywhere in the country?

In this election, JP is contesting directly in 283 constituencies, with their own party symbol "plough".  But the party leadership knows that their chances of winning in any constituency are quite slim, other than the few seats for which AL is making concessions for JP. Had BNP also been a part of this election, the calculation would most probably be different; JP would have taken part in the polls with the boat symbol in 30 seats, compromising with AL. 

This is because, in the last three terms of the government, JP has been under the shadows of AL. They have not put any effort into strengthening the party. They did not work on making their footing strong in the political arena dominated by AL and BNP. Instead, they tried to reap the benefits of being both the opposition and the beneficiary of the government.

This is why, even though the party chairman occasionally criticised various government activities and their internal feuds became public, there was no doubt among the politically conscious quarters that in the end JP would take part in the election. All their drama invited speculations on how many seats Jatiya Party could get assurance from Awami League. That's because, despite being the opposition in parliament, JP never actually took a strong stance against AL. Rather, the party sought the Awami League's help to resolve its internal feuds.

JP's crisis in this election is different from the last two general elections because the divisions within the party are quite evident this time. Party founder HM Ershad's wife Raushan Ershad—who is the leader of the opposition in parliament and chief patron of JP—and her son are not participating in this election. On December 12, Raushan Ershad paid a visit to Ganabhaban along with her son Saad Ershad, former JP secretary general Mashiur Rahman Ranga, and a few others. After meeting with the prime minister, Ranga told reporters, "The leader of the opposition [Raushan] has said since we are not with them [with JP Chairman GM Quader], they should participate in the national polls as they wish. (But) if you have to form an alliance, consult us. Because we are coalition partners." 

According to media reports, Raushan also sought the Rangpur-1 seat for Ranga, Rangpur-3 for her son Saad, Mymensingh-6 for JP leader KR Islam, Pirojpur-3 for Rustum Ali Faraji, and a few others. But, ultimately, the Raushan-Quader feud did not get resolved, resulting in the absence of Raushan and Saad in this election. Ranga is an independent candidate from Rangpur-1 constituency, where Hossain Mokbul Shahriar is the JP candidate. Rustum Ali Faraji is also running as an independent candidate from Pirojpur-3, where Mashrequl Azam Robi, adviser to GM Quader, is the JP candidate.

After HM Ershad's death on July 14, 2019, his wife Raushan and younger brother GM Quader both declared themselves as the chairperson of the party on September 5 of that year. GM Quader was the acting chairman after Ershad's death. However, both of them wrote to the speaker expressing their wish to be the leader of the opposition in parliament. Eventually, a compromise was reached between Raushan and Quader: Raushan would be the leader of the opposition, and GM Quader would be the deputy leader of the opposition and the chairman of the party.

In December 2019, GM Quader was declared JP chairman for three years in the Jatiya Party Council. His appointment was followed by more drama, which culminated in the situation today.

In these circumstances, the ruling Awami League has given up 26 seats for Jatiya Party. Besides, the ruling party is giving six more seats to its allies, who will contest with the boat symbol. 

On December 17, the last day to withdraw nomination papers, Jatiya Party Secretary General Mujibul Haque Chunnu said the party would take part in the election from 283 seats. He claimed, "There is no alliance. Nor is there any compromise for the seats. However, there are some strategies regarding some of the seats." Does that mean Raushan will remain out of the election this time? It is all but certain that the Awami League is going to form the government for another tenure. Is the Jatiya Party going to be the opposition in parliament again? If so, who will be the leader of the opposition? Or will there be a kind of coalition of oppositions consisting of AL's allies? If an understanding is reached with Raushan Ershad, will she be brought back in later through a by-election? Since candidates from JSD and Workers Party—members of the ruling coalition and AL allies—are running under the boat symbol, if they win and become MPs, do they have any chance of becoming cabinet members? Or will something entirely new happen?

The question is, what has brought us to a situation where candidates of Jatiya Party, JSD and Workers Party will not win the election if the Awami League does not give up the competition for them? Why have these parties not been able to build capabilities to participate in the election on their own, even after all this time? Have they become weak during their stay in power? Or have they assumed that they have to compromise to win the election? So, is this an indication to the nation that it truly does not have any alternative to Awami League and BNP?

Translated from Bangla by Sumaiya Binte Shams.

Amin Al Rasheed is current affairs editor at Nexus Television.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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