COVID-19 vaccines are estimated to have prevented 20 m deaths worldwide

COVID- 19 vaccines reduced the potential global pandemic death toll by more than half in the year after their implementation, a study estimates.

In the first year of the vaccination programme, 19.8 million COVID-19 deaths were prevented worldwide, based on excess deaths from 185 countries and territories. According to the study, 599,300 lives could have been saved if the World Health Organisation's (WHO) target of vaccinating 40% of each country's population with two or more doses had been met.

To estimate the impact of global vaccination programmes, the researchers used a model of COVID-19 transmission with country-level data for COVID-19 deaths between 8 December 2020 and 8 December 2021. Based on officially recorded COVID-19 deaths, the team estimated 18.1 million deaths during the study period without vaccinations. The study estimates that vaccination has prevented 14.4 million deaths (79%). In low-income countries, COVID-19 deaths are often underreported. To account for this, the team analysed total excess deaths during the same period. COVID-19 vaccination prevented 19.8 million of 31.4 million potential deaths, a 63% reduction.

More than three-quarters of deaths averted were due to vaccination's direct protection against severe symptoms, leading to lower mortality rates. The remaining 4.3 million deaths were prevented by indirect protection from reduced virus transmission in the population and reduced healthcare system burden, improving access to medical care for the most vulnerable.