Myanmar military’s new survival strategy
Since independence in 1947, Myanmar has seldom experienced democracy. On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military seized power again in a military coup, overthrowing the democratic government. However, this time the army is struggling to seize control in the face of a three-pronged resistance – international pressure, war with armed groups, and resistance from its own Bamar tribe. Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the NLD, formed the National Unity Government (NUG) against the military regime. In support of the NUG, more than 300-armed resistance forces, or People's Defense Forces (PDF), have been formed across Myanmar by the country's pro-democracy people. In the past eight months, there have been some 2,800-armed clashes between the military and various ethnic groups and the PDF in various parts of Myanmar. More than 3,000 military members have been killed in such clashes since the coup.
Local administrators and officials, supporters of the military government, are also facing various threats and attacks. On April 7, the PDF shot the vice-governor of Myanmar's central bank, who was appointed by the military government. The Tatmadaw has adopted a number of new strategies to strengthen its power by suppressing such armed resistance.
To suppress the PDF, the Tatmadaw is forming a People's Security Force (PSF) led by the police, the people's militia, the fire service, volunteer civilians, political parties and members of the Youth Buddhist Association (YMBA). By doing so, they are trying to turn the "military vs civilian" war into a "civilian vs civilian" war. The military recruitment process has also come to a standstill due to the disinterest of the general public. So far, about 3,000 soldiers and 7,000 police officers have quit their jobs and become rebels, a number that is likely to increase in the future.
Despite losing its numbers, the military wants to show the world that the internal situation in Myanmar is under control.
The military government enacted a new police law with constitutional powers. As a result, members of the police now have to fight as law enforcement and frontline fighters, which are commonly seen during civil wars. Moreover, the police can now search anyone anywhere and arrest them without warrant.
Recently, the regime revoked the citizenship of 11 leaders of the NUG. A number of NLD-backed ministers and political leaders have been sentenced to different jail terms for alleged crimes. Political analysists predict that the Election Commission may cancel the registration of NLD and SNLD, the two largest political parties in Myanmar, accusing them of not submitting their financial audit reports. This is how these two parties may be barred from participating in the pre-announced elections of the military government in August 2023. However, doubts still remain as to whether this election will be held at all and how participatory it will be.
Although the armed forces took the initiative to implement a ceasefire agreement by inviting various armed ethnic groups on the Armed Forces Day held on March 27, no armed group except for five small ones (ALP, DKBA-5, KNU / KNLA-PC, PNLA, RCSS) participated. On top of that, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing tried to legitimise the military takeover by inviting all former generals to the Armed Forces Day celebration.
The military government is attempting to gain international recognition in a number of ways. In March, senior military officials attended a conference of Asean defence chiefs. However, Asean member states are still divided over the coup in Myanmar.
The Tatmadaw has already started trading using Chinese, Indian and Thai currencies to avoid western economic sanctions. While big gas companies like Total and Chevron have left Myanmar, companies from Thailand and Korea are gradually replacing them. Myanmar's military is preparing to accept the Russian Ruble as an alternative currency to the US dollar.
By adopting the aforementioned internal tactics and diplomatic manoeuvres, Myanmar's military is trying to legitimise the coup and its other actions. The Tatmadaw, which has been at war with various armed groups for the last 75 years, is determined to hold onto power at any cost. Maybe, these strategies will help it to stay in power again for an indefinite period, as the world has already been divided into two groups on the issue of Myanmar because of geopolitical interests.
So, what will be Bangladesh's position regarding the Rohingyas? Recently, the US has dubbed the Myanmar military's ethnic cleansing campaign against the Rohingyas as "Genocide". Although there is no immediate visible effect of such declaration, it is expected to create pressure on Myanmar in the long run. On the other hand, the focus of global powers, especially the western countries, is also shifting away from the Rohingya repatriation, as the world is now more concerned with the Ukraine crisis. Delay in the repatriation process will create more risks not only for Bangladesh, but for this entire region. Considering the current context of Myanmar, Bangladesh should try to resolve the Rohingya issue through military diplomacy, as the military directly or indirectly always influences Myanmar's decision, even when they are not in power.
Tonmoy Chowdhury is a security affairs analyst. Email: ctonmoy555@gmail.com