BBS data lays bare devastating impact of Covid-19

The scale of the immediate but devastating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on Bangladesh's economy emerged for the first time after the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) published the quarterly data of the GDP to meet IMF's conditions.

The economy contracted by a massive 7.86 percent in the last quarter of the fiscal year of 2019-20, when the virus began to spread and the death toll started climbing.

Bangladesh reported its first coronavirus death in the third week of March 2020 and embraced a strict lockdown from April 14 amid a worsening Covid-19 situation.

Barring emergency services, all government and private offices and factories remained closed. Public transport services were suspended for much of the quarter, forcing many out of jobs.

Ziauddin Ahmed, a director at the BBS, said the agency had started publishing quarterly GDP (gross domestic product) data and had initially released figures for 2016-17 to 2021-22.

By November this year, the quarterly GDP of 2022-23 will also be published, he said.

He said it takes 90 to 100 days to publish the GDP data of a quarter as per international standards after the end of the three-month period.

"The figures of the first quarter of the current fiscal year will be published by January 2024," Ahmed added.

"We are going to release the quarterly GDP figures from this fiscal regularly. We are on track to meeting the IMF condition."

The release of quarterly data is one of the conditions that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has set before approving a $4.5 billion loan for Bangladesh in January.

According to the BBS, the economy grew about 6.5 to 8 percent in the first three quarters of 2019-20. But the pandemic shocked every sector, barring health, public administration and real estate, leading to a massive negative growth.

For example, the industrial sector, which accounts for around 33 percent of GDP, shrank 15.01 percent in the last quarter of the fiscal year while the service sector, which makes up 53 percent of the GDP, contracted 2.76 percent. The agriculture sector contracted 3.16 percent.

However, the public administration and health sectors, the operations of which were not impacted much by Covid-19 restrictions, grew by 11.05 percent. The real estate sector was up 5.49 percent.

During the pandemic, surveys of different think-tanks found that the economic shock induced by the pandemic had pushed millions into poverty.

Government officials criticised these surveys, but the BBS's quarterly GDP figures now strengthen the authenticity of the research.

In 2020-21, the downturn in the economy continued in the first two quarters as lockdowns were imposed during various phases. Since shops, hotels and restaurants were closed, millions of people remained unemployed.

The economy bounced back from the third quarter of FY21 after the government eased restrictions. In the last quarter of the fiscal year, the economy boomed 21.67 percent.

In 2021-22, the pandemic waned significantly and the economy was on track to reach pre-pandemic levels. From the first quarter to the third quarter, the GDP witnessed a substantial rise, with over 10 percent expansion in January-March.

But the economy faced another shock in the last quarter due to the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain disruptions in the global markets, bringing the economic growth rate down to 2.58 percent.

The growth of the GDP in the industrial sector for that quarter was only 2.66 percent, down from 34.64 percent in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

The service sector dropped to one-fifth compared to the same period of the previous fiscal as prices of raw materials in the international market rose.

The downturn was also felt in the agriculture sector, which increased by only 1.22 percent in April-June of 2021-22.