Bangladesh's paddy production is estimated to have declined in 2024 from the previous year, largely due to output losses caused by recurrent floods and Cyclone Remal in late July.

However, aggregate paddy production in 2024 is forecast at 6.02 crore tonnes, which is well above the four-year average of 5.71 crore tonnes, according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released in early January this year.

Consequently, the country's cereal import requirement is projected to rise in the July-June marketing year 2024-25. Total cereal import requirements are forecast at 83 lakh tonnes, below the average of over 85 lakh tonnes.

The FAO said that although losses of standing crops occurred in the eastern parts of the country due to heavy rains and floods last August, production of the Aman paddy crop, which accounts for 35 percent of the annual output, is forecast at an above-average level, mostly due to anticipated high yields in non-affected areas.

Aman paddy, cultivated in the rainy season, has been harvested.

However, production of Aus was estimated at 42 lakh tonnes, 7 percent below the average, following crop losses caused by severe flood events between May and July and Cyclone Remal in late July.

The FAO said that production of Boro, contributing 55 percent to the annual rice output, was estimated at record 3.16 crore tonnes, reflecting large plantings in response to high prices at sowing time and bumper yields owing to favourable weather conditions.

The production of maize was also estimated at 52 lakh tonnes last year, due mostly to large sowings driven by robust domestic demand and elevated prices during the planting period.

"Favourable weather conditions and the widespread use of high-yielding seed varieties supported above-average yields," said the FAO in its country brief on Bangladesh.

The UN agency said wheat, grown in the previous winter, increased as well.

CEREAL IMPORTS TO RISE

Based on production, the agency forecast below-average cereal import requirements for Bangladesh in 2024-25. However, the volume of projected cereal imports is higher for the current fiscal year 2024-25 compared to the previous year.

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat, which covers 80 percent of the country's consumption needs, along with minor quantities of rice and maize, said the FAO.

The FAO said that imports of rice in the calendar year 2025 are expected to amount to 450,000 tonnes.

Read more

Fragrant rice production nearly doubles in seven years

Imports of wheat are projected to be near the average of 61 lakh tonnes, with an above-average forecast of 21 lakh tonnes of the grain imported by Bangladesh, driven by steady demand for feed by the livestock and fishing industries.

The FAO report said that Bangladesh's cereal imports were well below the average level, as the country's import capacity was constrained by dwindling foreign currency reserves and significant depreciation of the national currency (Taka) from May 2022 to November 2024.

"As the national currency remains weak and foreign currency reserves are low, the country is likely to face challenges in fully covering its import requirements in 2024-25."

FOOD SECURITY WORSENED IN OCT-DEC

The UN agency report stated that food security conditions worsened in Bangladesh between October and December 2024.

It said that about 2.36 crore people were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity and above from October to December 2024, up from 1.65 crore people estimated in the April-October 2024 period.

The deterioration of food security conditions is mostly attributed to the negative effects of floods and Cyclone Remal, which affected about 1.9 crore people and caused severe losses of crops, livestock, food stocks, and agricultural infrastructure, the FAO said.

"In addition, despite the above-average cereal harvests in 2023 and 2024, which have improved food availability, concerns about access to food remain due to persistent high food inflation that diminishes the purchasing power of vulnerable households."

Read more

Bangladesh's rice output crosses 4cr tonnes for the first time

The FAO said that food inflation had remained at elevated levels since August 2022. In October 2024, it was estimated at 12.7 percent, driven by high costs of production and transport, reduced cereal imports -- especially the key staple wheat -- and the steep depreciation of taka, which made imports costlier.

In December last year, the food inflation stood at 12.92 percent, down from 13.8 percent the previous year, according to data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).