Macroeconomic indicators show early signs of stability

Bangladesh's macroeconomic landscape is showing early signs of stability after months of volatility, as inflation appears to have peaked, foreign exchange reserves are steadying, the taka has firmed up, and export performance is improving, according to Standard Chartered Bangladesh.

The bank made the observations at its "Global Research Briefing" in Dhaka yesterday, where private sector leaders, policymakers and clients convened to assess the country's economic trajectory, according to a press release.

The bank's research estimates GDP growth at 5 percent for fiscal year 2025-26.

While acknowledging ongoing global uncertainties, the lender painted a cautiously optimistic picture, attributing the outlook to policy reforms, improving fundamentals and opportunities for sustainable growth.

"Although short-term indicators point to a potential turning point, our confidence is rooted in the strength of long-term fundamentals," said Naser Ezaz Bijoy, CEO of Standard Chartered Bangladesh.

"Stabilisation presents an opportunity, but it will require coordinated policy action, external support and structural reforms," he said.

Saurav Anand, an economist at the bank, echoed this, saying recent reforms have "significantly improved macro-fundamentals", citing cooling inflation, a stable exchange rate and improving reserves.

The research also flagged structural challenges, including slowing private sector credit growth, elevated non-performing assets and sluggish revenue mobilisation.

It stressed the importance of fiscal consolidation and subsidy reforms to unlock long-term potential.

"Sound risk management is crucial amid global volatility," said Lutfey Siddiqi, chief adviser's envoy for international affairs, reaffirming the government's commitment to reforms that enhance investment and business conditions.

Participants of the event also discussed forex market trends, fiscal sustainability, trade competitiveness and investor sentiment amidst the country's political transition.