Reserves drop below $20b after ACU payment

After remaining above the $20 billion mark for just three days, Bangladesh's foreign currency reserves dropped to $18.46 billion after the country paid its regional import bills on October 9.

This means that Bangladesh will be able to cover at least three and a half months of import bills with the current reserves, which is above the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) recommended three-month import cover threshold.

In the last six months since April this year, Bangladesh on average paid around $5.3 billion for monthly import bills, according to central bank data.

On November 7, the country's foreign exchange reserves, as per the IMF's calculation method, crossed the $20 billion mark after two months.

After the ACU payment, the country's gross reserves, a conventional calculation by the central bank, stood at $24.19 billion.

The ACU is a Tehran-based institution for settling payments among nine countries -- India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Iran, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Under the ACU, Bangladesh clears import bills every two months and reserves usually fall after the payment is made.

Bangladesh's reserves surged to a record high of $48 billion in August 2021 amid the Covid-led import and economic shutdown. However, the forex reserves started to fall gradually in the post-pandemic period driven by a spike in import payments.

This downward trend continued amid increases in import bills against lower exports and remittance earnings until the end of the Awami League regime on August 5 this year in the face of a student-led mass movement.

After the political changeover, the forex reverses started to inch up riding on the increasing remittance inflow. Besides, the Bangladesh Bank's decision to not sell dollars to the market from the reserve also contributed to the upward trend of the forex reserves.

On top of that, the central bank devalued the local currency to Tk 120 against each US dollar amid a greenback shortage and pressure on banks to settle import payments.

The amount of money sent back home by Bangladeshis living abroad rose 21.31 percent year-on-year to $2.39 billion in October.

Although October's inflow was 0.41 percent lower than September's, remittance earnings stood at $8.93 billion during the July-October period of FY25, up from $6.87 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year, shows central bank data.

According to industry insiders, remittance inflows are likely to increase in the coming days, driven by the central bank's efforts and the support of remittance earners for the new interim government.

This rise in remittances is expected to provide some relief and ease the pressure on foreign exchange reserves, they said.