The development priorities now changed all on a sudden

To contain the spread of the lethal coronavirus, the government has put in place some inevitable measures like social distancing and countrywide shutdown though these may result in a downturn in economic growth.

In Bangladesh, there is no choice between saving lives and livelihoods. If these steps are not taken, the virus will spread so fast that the production activities will be disrupted.

But the most disastrous effect of lockdown is that it means loss of livelihoods of the poorest groups who face the threat of food deficit and hunger.

The government and the non-governmental organisations are taking measures to ensure the availability of food among these groups, but there is a need for vigilance around the implementation process.

The following discussion focuses on issues that are relevant not only at this moment but in the coming year or even longer.

These issues include concerns about GDP growth, how to maintain livelihoods of the poor and their employment and also the need to recognise that there are other groups for whom employment is needed.

Estimates of low GDP growth this fiscal year are coming from various quarters but the usual questions about the reasons for the downturn in the economic growth may not be relevant.

Since the growth in the first three quarters was as expected, the decline in GDP growth is obviously due to coronavirus and cannot be attributed to specific policies of the recent past.

Therefore, a debate on the extent of deceleration may not be the most urgent policy question. A comparison of growth figures among the Asian neighbours is also not as useful as has been in the past.

At this moment, a comparison must combine the growth deceleration figures with the damage done by coronavirus in terms of the share of the population infected and share of deaths.

If Bangladesh is successful in containing the infections and eliminating the other sufferings, especially food shortage and hunger, then the low GDP growth may not be a discredit.

Rather an attempt to reverse the growth scenario at the cost of faster spread of the virus and resulting deaths may not be acceptable. Of course, one needs to consider pragmatic steps to accelerate growth as and when the curve flattens.

Ensuring food security requires attention to issues beyond immediate actions to mitigate hunger. Access to adequate food by all walks of people will require adequate availability in the coming months or year at the aggregate level.

Bangladesh has been almost self-reliant in food for the last few years. In years of good harvest, the share of imported rice declines and the reverse in case of any abnormal decline in production.

But during the next one year, the rice exporting countries will be cautious about export, and given the current uncertainty, every country will try to minimise risks related to food availability.

Bangladesh must also try to maintain food supply, especially food grain production. It is heartening that instruction has come from the top leadership to increase food production and to use all land to grow more food.

Now proper implementation and monitoring are needed as accelerated agricultural growth can contribute to higher GDP growth over the next two years.

Although the upcoming boro harvest is expected to be normal, special arrangements must be made to ensure that labour is available for the harvest and post-harvest activities. Sufficient aman acreage has to be ensured as well.

If coronavirus spreads, agricultural production may continue uninterrupted, even amid social distancing.

The loss of livelihoods of the poorest is only a part of the total loss of employment and related sufferings. Many of those who are above that level have lost their temporary jobs.

In industrial and services sectors, a bigger share of jobs is of informal and temporary nature. A large share of them have possibly lost jobs and many others will not receive salaries for the days not worked due to the shutdown.

The other categories suffering from a lack of employment are those who have entered the labour market in 2020.

Before they have secured a job, the doors of the job market have been closed and those who completed education in 2019 now have no prospect of a job. Many would have taken up overseas jobs but that route too is closed.

Whenever the economy returns to normalcy, employment creation for these groups will be a priority. While making plans for job creation, the government cannot work with past experience.

During the last decade or so, the total entrants to new labour force were in the range of 1.8 to 2 million per year of which 0.4 to 1.0 million availed overseas employment each year.

Therefore, the balance was the net addition to the domestic labour force. When the economy is back to the normal track, the net domestic labour force seeking employment will be the entire addition in a year, which is about 1.9 million-plus a backlog of new entrants of 2020.

Not the entire supply can be absorbed in a year, but definite guidelines and strategies must be adopted during those years.

Low-income households faced with a shortage of food and essentials may reduce their expenditure on education. Aggressive skill training plans for various groups may supplement the general education to take care of this problem.

The other important change to be initiated is a better healthcare system, both in terms of quality and regional dispersion within the country.

When the deadly virus will be ultimately defeated, the experience of this period is expected to open up new opportunities and the nation must be prepared to utilise these opportunities.

The writer is the executive chairperson of the Centre for Development and Employment Research