Tk 141,000cr needed in June to attain tax goal

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) needs to collect Tk 141,000 crore this month to meet its revenue target of Tk 463,500 crore for the current fiscal year—an impossible task, analysts said.

Between July and May of FY2024-25, NBR's tax collection rose 4.21 percent year-on-year to Tk 3,22,232 crore, according to provisional data.

The figure fell Tk 72,228 crore short of the NBR's target for the period.

Officials said collections in May were affected by a two-week-long protest by revenue officials demanding the repeal of a new ordinance seeking to split the NBR.

The interim government framed the ordinance as part of revenue reforms and to comply with an International Monetary Fund condition tied to a $4.7 billion loan package.

The protest ended after the government pledged to amend the law. However, services at field offices were disrupted, hampering revenue collection.

This month, tax collection is likely to be slower than that a year ago, said Muhammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

He noted that economic activity has slowed due to the Eid-ul-Azha holidays.

"May's collection suffered as officials suspended work. Even if we assume that recovery is possible with effort, practically it is impossible. The NBR was virtually non-functional for several days," he said.

"In this situation, the chances of meeting the tax collection target are very slim," Razzaque added.

Earlier, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) projected a revenue collection shortfall of about Tk 105,000 crore in FY25.

This would mark the 13th consecutive year that the NBR will be missing its revenue collection target.

Against this backdrop, the government has set a tax collection goal of Tk 499,000 crore for FY2025-26, which is 7.6 percent higher than that in this year's revised target.

The target is significantly higher than the actual receipts of Tk 361,000 crore.

"The revenue target for the next fiscal year has been set quite high. It simply won't be achievable," Razzaque said.

He also warned of growing external risks.

"We are already under economic pressure due to various disruptions, and we still don't know how Trump's reciprocal tariff policies will play out," he said.

"If global trade slows as a result, it will affect our revenue. The slowdown will make economic management harder than in a normal year," he said.