No clue when the outbreak may peak

While health officials still do not know when the coronavirus outbreak will peak and then plateau, confirmed coronavirus cases crossed the 10,000 mark with the announcement of a record 688 new cases yesterday.

Fifty-six days after the first cases were reported, detected cases now stand at 10,143 and the number of people testing positive is still rising almost every day.

After March 7, when the first cases were disclosed, the number grew slowly for a period. But now the country is experiencing an explosion of cases and a fluctuating number of deaths on a daily basis.

At the daily briefing yesterday, officials said five Covid-19 patients died, taking the total toll to 182.

Judging the curve and the latest extension of the shutdown, health officials and experts say, it is difficult to predict the course of the pandemic.

Health officials earlier predicted that by the end of this month, the number of infected cases might be between 50,000 and 100,000. But they are now saying that the extension of the shutdown by nearly two weeks will slow down the spread.

"The virus is on course to reach the peak slowly. However, we cannot say exactly when it will peak," said Mushtaq Hossain, epidemiologist and consultant at the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control And Research (IEDCR).

"If we do not allow people on the streets and relax social distancing orders, the virus will take longer to spread, and we will get the time to take preparations. But any wrong decision will cause a tsunami-like situation," he told The Daily Star.

Experts maintain that the actual number of infected people could be much higher in Bangladesh. Unless many more cases are detected through widespread testing, community transmission will continue and the situation will be out of hand.

"The situation is very complex. Community transmission is going on and the numbers are rising, while the rate of detection is still low. We have to increase the number of tests by a lot to fathom the situation," Be-Nazir Ahmed, former director (disease control) of the DGHS, told The Daily Star.

He said if the shutdown is not properly enforced, the peak will come soon.

"Due to the shutdown, we have managed to slow the spread, but if we could identify all the cases, it would be easier for us to tackle the situation," he said.

During a meeting last month, health ministry officials expressed fear that the pandemic would worsen in May with up to 50,000 cases and 1,000 deaths.

In another inter-ministerial meeting chaired by Health Minister Zahid Maleque on April 21, Prof Abul Kalam Azad, DG of the Directorate General of Health Services, said there could be 100,000 positive cases by the end of May.

The number of testing facilities have increased but many more are needed, experts say.

"The numbers we confirm every day do not represent the reality, because people from all regions don't have access to testing. A lot more cases remain undetected," said Prof Muzaherul Huq, former adviser to the World Health Organization's South Asia region.

"Until testing is accessible and available for all, it would not be possible to predict when the transmission will peak," he said.

COVID-19 SITUATION

At yesterday's briefing, Prof Nasima Sultana, additional director general (administration) at DGHS, said 6,315 samples were collected the previous day.

Of those, 6,260 were tested in 33 laboratories across the country, bringing the total tests conducted so far to 87,694.

The sample collection and tests have been increased in a day by 21.11 percent and 16.61 percent, she said.

Prof Nasima said the five people who died were men. Three of them were from Dhaka and one each from Sylhet and Mymensingh.

Three of them were aged above 60 while one was between 50 and 60 and the other was between 31 and 40, she said.

With 147 latest recoveries, the number of total recoveries is now 1,209, she said.

Officials sent 90 individuals suspected of having Covid-19 into isolation, bringing the total to 1,636. The country is capable of accommodating 3,635 people at 601 isolation facilities, she added.

Currently, 41,933 people are quarantined across the country and at least 153,401 have left after completing the mandatory quarantine period.