PM's India tour could be delayed

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's New Delhi visit next month seems unlikely as most of the focus in India would be on elections in five states, including the most populous Uttar Pradesh, beginning February 11.

The signing of the Teesta water-sharing deal remains a major challenge for the Hasina government as the ball is in India's court.

Highly placed sources said no visible progress has been made on ratification of the Teesta treaty since the signing was stalled in September 2011.

Diplomatic sources in New Delhi said it would be very difficult for India to arrange a schedule for the Bangladesh PM in February and March as the country's key political leaders would be in the midst of the election campaign and watching the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa.

The election in Uttar Pradesh is seen as the main determinant of who would be India's next prime minister. Voting has been staggered over seven days from February 11 to March 8 and the results will be declared on March 11.

The polls will test Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity after he abruptly scrapped currency notes in the denominations of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 in a demonetisation drive that he believes will check black money and tax evasion.

However, an Indian diplomat yesterday told The Daily Star that the visit can take place at short notice of maximum 15 days as the Bangladesh PM expressed willingness to visit India anytime.

According to diplomatic sources in Dhaka, Hasina wants a very positive outcome of her India visit which would include signing of the Teesta deal.

Though the diplomatic sources in Dhaka and New Delhi said signing of the treaty was not a precondition for the PM's visit, it remains the most important issue in Bangladesh-India relations.

“Teesta is stuck at the state government level. The West Bengal government has to be on board. But the way the West Bengal chief minister is posturing in recent days, you know better about the prospects,” an Indian diplomat told this correspondent on condition of anonymity.

About the prospect of the PM's visit taking place in March, sources in New Delhi said the Indian government won't be able to place the national budget in parliament next month duet to state elections, but it would definitely be placed sometime in March.

As the Indian government would be busy with the budget, the possibility of Hasina's visit in March is also very small, added the sources.

Hasina was scheduled to visit New Delhi last month, but the tour was postponed due to scheduling problems. “Last time the scheduling problem was with the Bangladesh side and now the problem is with the Indian side,” said another Indian diplomat in Dhaka.

He pointed out that signing of agreements between the two countries and any possible announcement of a fresh line of credit by India may be cited by opposition parties as violation of electoral code of conduct arguing that it would help spruce up the ruling BJP's image ahead of the elections.

A Bangladesh foreign ministry official said during the PM's proposed visit the two countries are likely to ink over two dozens of agreements, including those for using Chittagong and Mongla ports by India.

Besides, the two neighbours might sign a cooperation document to strengthen counterterrorism efforts.

India is likely to make a fresh commitment to provide loans of over $12 billion. A good number of projects have already been identified for implementation with this fund.

Sources said the Indian side has already sent a list of 41 proposed MoUs and deals. The list, however, does not include the Teesta issue.